The latest policy on mortgage interest rates in 2023 is as follows:

In 2023, down payments and interest rates in some cities may exceed the lower limit.

Cities where the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings have declined for three consecutive months, both month-on-month and year-on-year, can maintain, lower, or cancel the lower limit of the local first home loan interest rate policy in stages.

Specifically, there are three main points:

1. House prices have fallen for three consecutive months.

2. Only the lower limit of the loan interest rate for first-time home buyers is adjusted.

3. If house prices rise for three consecutive months, the lower limit of the national unified interest rate will be restored.

This policy is actually a continuation of the 2022 mortgage interest rate policy.

Policy analysis:

Judging from the LPR trend for the whole year of 2022, in August, the LPR of 5 years and above fell to 4.3, and the first home mortgage interest rate can be as low as 4.1 %.

After that, on September 29, 2022, the Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission decided to adjust the differentiated housing credit policy in stages. Qualifying city governments can decide independently to maintain, lower or cancel the lower interest rate limit for new local first-home housing loans in stages before the end of 2022.

According to statistics, at that time, at least 23 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities met the criteria, including 8 second-tier cities such as Tianjin and 15 third- and fourth-tier cities such as Wenzhou and Yueyang. City.

After the policy was promulgated, many places responded positively. For example, Jining, Huanggang, Qingyuan, etc. adjusted the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate to LPR minus 60 basis points to LPR minus 35 basis points. Jiangmen, Zhanjiang, etc. even The interest rate floor has been removed.

However, the adjustment effect of the 929 New Deal on market expectations and the driving effect of transactions are not obvious. For example, the housing prices of new houses in Jining and Zhanjiang announced by the Bureau of Statistics continue to increase negatively. CRIC data shows that the transaction area of ??commercial residential buildings in Qingyuan in the fourth quarter was the same. , fell 63% and 20% respectively from the previous month.

The policies issued by the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission are a further upgrade on the 929 policy. The biggest differences are in two points. The first is that the 929 policy only has a 3-month trial period. There is no deadline set for this new policy. Second, the new policy has established an exit mechanism that will restore the lower limit of the national uniform interest rate after three consecutive increases in housing prices.

According to statistics, there are currently 38 eligible cities out of 70 large and medium-sized cities.

Judging from this new policy, the signal that the credit policy will continue to be loose in 2023 is obvious, especially for those who just need home buyers, further protection and support will be provided.

It should be noted that the "exit mechanism" established by the New Deal to restore unified interest rates after three consecutive increases in housing prices is intended to show that the main tone of the current policy is still to seek stability rather than irrational increases.