The progress of technology and production will bring about some situations that are simply unimaginable in an agricultural society. Caron once talked about the experience of France: 1860- 1880, although the railway was beneficial to "remote areas", it "aggravated the imbalance between regions". Therefore, during the economic depression, "the factory almost closed down, the textile industry disappeared in Limousin, the smelting industry disappeared in poitou, the steel industry disappeared in Berry, and the weaving industry all closed down in the south-central region". Generally speaking, technological progress, improvement of traffic conditions, expansion of industrialization, and integration of domestic and international markets have intensified domestic and international competition, intensified imbalances, generally lowered prices, and made many enterprises bankrupt or semi-bankrupt a common phenomenon.
2. The shortage of precious metals caused the Great Depression, which is a very strong concept of contemporary people. For example, in 1894, someone in Britain pointed out: "It is precisely because of the large increase in commodities in the past 20 years that if the price does not fall, the amount of money needs to increase accordingly; It is precisely because the corresponding amount of money is not easy to obtain that the price has fallen. This is indeed the most important argument in all this debate, and it is also the root of all the difficulties people feel when understanding the current problems. " But Kurt pointed out: At that time, people attributed the depression to the increase of commodities and the shortage of gold supply. "The exact nature of this causal relationship has never been satisfactorily explained." There are various related theories, some of which are worth noting.
As Schumpeter said, the characteristic of these theories is that "the depression is attributed to the lack of general monetary income ... or to people's savings habits, or ultimately to the lack of income of some classes and the savings habits of others." However, mainstream economists despise these theories. "They obviously didn't pay attention to the possible imbalance caused by savings, and even didn't pay attention to the role of savings in bank loans in the cycle, thus leaving a large undefended wilderness. Today's economists look back and see that there seems to be a brilliant aperture in this wasteland, in which stands the image of J.A. Hobson. In fact, Hobson is not the only one in the aperture. Hobson did not predict today's Keynesian theory. " In other words, there are some shining things in these theories, which are the transition between the old theory and Keynesian theory, but they have not yet developed to the point of becoming a pioneer of Keynes.
This involves the debate on whether the gold standard played a positive role at the end of 19, but it is generally believed that it did play a very important role. A fair evaluation is: "The international monetary system before 19 14 often makes international monetary policy scholars fall into a dangerous illusion, that is, the system is characterized by orderly adjustment and overall stable operation"; In fact, the operation of this system is "not perfect", but during the period of 1895- 19 13, "the fixed exchange rate is stable in normal times and crisis times", so more and more countries joined the gold standard.
3. When the rapid development caused economic imbalance, uneven distribution, bankruptcy and unemployment depression, the economy did not decline as a whole, but its rapid changes and adjustments caused uneven distribution of various departments or strata, resulting in various terrible situations. Therefore, when talking about price decline, don't simply equate it with profit reduction. Caron pointed out that "although prices have dropped and wages have risen, industrial profits have increased, although the increasing trend is sometimes interrupted", which usually happens when the crisis comes. Because different industries or departments have different experiences in the tide of economic development, among their contemporaries, they will hear more complaints that industries are in trouble, thus causing the illusion of total economic collapse. At the beginning of the 20th century, Minnie Throop pointed out that the demand for commodities increased by 25% on average during the prosperous period, while the production cost only increased by 65,438+00% on average. However, the production cost of some industries will be relatively higher than that of other industries, and the demand will be adjusted accordingly. Some industrial sectors will find that their profits will decrease, while others will increase rapidly. Generally speaking, before the crisis, profits did not generally decline, and the general decline was only the result of production stopping rising when the depression came.
To a certain extent, the Great Depression can also be regarded as a manifestation of adapting to the requirements of economic development, because its role is to eliminate the old and support the new. 1878 someone in Britain said: "This depression period is not completely without benefits, even if it is a directly damaged industry. During this period, inventions become popular, people make every effort to reduce expenses and improve efficiency, and the industry and the public will eventually benefit from it. When profiteering, there is no time or motivation to do these things; It is to suppress the survival needs during the contraction period and force people to pay attention to them. The result of the depression has also forced people to shut down and give up many outdated machines, because they can no longer bear their due responsibilities in the competition. " The role or inevitability of crisis in the process of economic development is emphasized here, which is similar to the idea of economic cycle.