At the end of 20 18, the balance of non-performing loans reached 2.03 trillion yuan, and the market structure of non-performing assets market attracted people's attention again. The market of non-performing assets changes with the fluctuation of economic cycle. Asset management companies (AMC) buy non-performing assets from banks or other financial institutions and companies, and then dispose of and recycle them. For banks and other institutions or companies, it can speed up the disposal of non-performing assets, quickly recover funds and put them into normal business; For AMC, you can buy bad products at a discount and earn a certain price difference after disposing of asset recovery funds.
While the cake in the industry is getting bigger, the disposal modes of non-performing assets are constantly innovating, such as debt restructuring, market-oriented debt-to-equity swap, industry-finance combined fund, non-performing asset securitization, and internet plus's disposal of non-performing assets, which expands the disposal channels of non-performing assets.
In recent years, the market scale of non-performing assets disposal has reached a high level.
The balance of non-performing loans at the end of 20 18 reached 2.03.
Trillion yuan, down 6.8 billion yuan from the end of the third quarter, but still at a high level in recent years. The NPL ratio of commercial banks was 1.83%, down by 0.04 percentage point from the end of last quarter.
Judging from the trend of the whole year, the non-performing loan ratio rose for three consecutive quarters from the beginning of the year and declined in the fourth quarter. 1 quarter non-performing rate is1.75%; In the second quarter, the non-performing loan ratio rose to 1.86%, and rose for the first time after stabilizing at around 1.75% for nine consecutive quarters. The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks rose in the third quarter.
0.0 1 percentage point to1.87%; In the fourth quarter, with the introduction of a series of national risk prevention policies, the NPL ratio dropped sharply, reaching 1.83%, which is still at a high level in recent years.
In terms of five-tier loans of commercial banks, the proportion of normal loans has increased slightly in the past two years, the proportion of concern loans has declined to a certain extent, and the proportion of non-performing loans has increased. 20 18
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2008, the balance of normal loans, concern loans and non-performing loans of China commercial banks were 105.02 trillion yuan, 3.46 trillion yuan and 2.03 trillion yuan respectively.
2011-2018q4 Statistics on the balance of non-performing loans of China Commercial Bank.
Data source: compiled by Prospective Industry Research Institute.
From the perspective of the supply of non-performing assets, Yu Xia believes that the growth rate of non-performing loans of commercial banks began to rise, from 20 17 to 12%, and rose rapidly to 2 1.66% in the third quarter of 20 1.8. In the future, the formation of non-performing asset packages will maintain a large supply with the downward pressure of the economy.
Judging from the demand for non-performing loans, the non-performing loan market pattern of "4+2+N+ Banking Department" is basically determined, with only "N" as the variable (private unlicensed asset management institution). With the market becoming saturated, the number of non-performing asset management institutions will remain at a slow growth level in the future.
The disposal mode of non-performing assets is constantly innovating.
The production company can dispose of assets through debt recovery, lease, transfer, reorganization, asset replacement, entrusted disposal, debt-to-equity swap and asset securitization.
In addition to the traditional asset disposal methods, many market participants believe that in the future, financial asset management companies should operate non-performing assets with the concept, tools and mode of investment banks, actively participate in the operation through innovative ways such as debt restructuring, fund combining industry and finance, market-oriented debt-to-equity swap, securitization of non-performing assets, and internet plus, so as to find assets that are temporarily underestimated due to information asymmetry and graft the capital market to enhance their intrinsic value. For example, Zhou Zeng, president and executive director of China Great Wall, said: "In the face of the new situation, the disposal mode of non-performing assets of Great Wall assets has mainly changed from the' three strikes' mode in the policy period to the commercial' three blood' mode."
At present, many disposal methods are changing from traditional mode to investment banking thinking. In the interview, Marseille also mentioned two industry theories on the disposal of non-performing assets: popsicle theory and chopping wood theory. The so-called popsicle theory-"disposing of non-performing assets is like selling popsicles. Popsicles melt in your hand for a long time, and so do bad assets. If you can't get rid of it quickly, after a long time, there is only one stick left.
-For more data, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of Non-performing Assets Disposal Industry in China issued by Foresight Industry Research Institute.