20 18 in mid-June, before the United States officially started a trade war, the central bank raised interest rates once. Coupled with the policy guidance of restructuring and risk prevention, internal financing has shrunk, and the funds in the whole market have become extremely tight. Even listed companies can feel the cold wind of the whole liquidity. In 20 18, the growth rate of financing scale in the whole society declined obviously, and the annual incremental scale decreased by 3. 14 trillion compared with last year.
The tightening of monetary policy has made all walks of life feel the pressure of operation, especially for enterprises that added leverage, new capacity and new equipment in the early stage. With both domestic demand and exports affected, many enterprises are short of funds. With the decrease of main business income and the substantial increase of financial cost, if an enterprise cannot obtain new loans from banks, the capital chain may be broken, thus affecting the normal operation of the enterprise. This can be seen from the blowout of the amount and quantity of default in the bond market in 20 18, which shows that the financing environment was bad last year and the survival of enterprises was difficult.
Bond default directly affects the performance of bond funds, because pure debt funds may also lose 50% because of thunder, which is not a dream. How did the bond fund, which was once stable in the eyes of investors, suddenly become so unsafe? In 20 19, the number and amount of bond defaults are still soaring. How should investors guard against buying bonds? How should investors who have not bought bond funds hedge? Below, we will analyze the details of the bond fund stepping on mines from the default situation of the bond market, and provide a set of demining methods for investors.
From 2009 1 October 20 18 to April 2065438+26, there were 183 bonds in default in China, involving an amount of 156907 billion yuan, of which136. The number of defaulted bonds increased from single digits of 20 14 to three digits of 20 18. Compared with the peak of 20 16, the number and amount of bond defaults have more than doubled, which shows that the financing environment of enterprises was severe last year.
Private enterprise bonds are credit bonds, which are an important part of bond funds' investment assets. According to Haitong Securities' analysis of 20 19 and 1 quarterly reports of active bond-type open-end funds, the position of credit bonds in pure debt assets accounts for nearly 70%, while the position of interest rate bonds (such as government bonds) accounts for about 30%.
Therefore, the bond default of private enterprises will directly affect the net performance of bond funds, while bond funds are relatively stable in the original trend. The performance of 20 18 debt base even subverts investors' impression of "stability" of bond funds. Especially for the relatively small bond funds, after being struck by lightning, they even suffered a net loss of more than two digits, which was unimaginable in the past. However, since the implementation of the new asset management regulations, this situation has quietly changed, which has brought far-reaching influence to all kinds of newly converted assets and also affected the operation of all kinds of fixed-income products.
How big is the impact of private enterprise debt default on bond funds?
During the period of 201February/8 1-65438+, among the 1284 bond funds, * * bond funds suffered losses of 23 1 only, of which 35 bond funds suffered losses of more than 10%,/kloc-0. It is necessary to exclude convertible bond funds with poor performance because of the poor stock market, because convertible bonds have a high correlation with the stock market, and the focus here is on bond funds other than convertible bonds. Here I use two cases to analyze for you and understand the characteristics of bond funds.
In fact, the above list does not include bond funds that have been liquidated because of thunder. For example, Zhongrong Fengfeng Pure Debt, which was "famous" because of Thunder last year, suffered a large loss because of the heavy position of "14 rich bird", and was finally liquidated because it failed to meet the minimum scale requirements of the fund. By the end of April, 2065438+2008, the accumulated loss of Zhongrongfeng pure debt reached 50.2%.
Then why can a pure debt fund lose 50%?
First of all, China Rongrongfeng Pure Bond was only1.1.300 million at the beginning of its establishment, so it is difficult to manage the bond portfolio risk. Secondly, the performance of Zhongrong's bond funds has been poor, and the average yield of its 34 bond funds in the past five years has lagged far behind the total debt index and the average market performance, with a lag rate of 10 percentage point and 20 percentage points respectively, indicating that its fixed-income investment ability cannot reach the market average level. Unfortunately, their funds also encountered a wave of private enterprise debt default on 20 18.
By the fourth quarter of 20 17, 14 Fu Gui Bird was the first heavy debt of Zhongrong Fengfeng pure debt, accounting for 47.2% of the net value, much higher than the net value of national debt 13.79%. 14 When Fu Guibo defaulted, his bond valuation fell by more than 80%, and the net value of Zhongrong Fengfeng also plummeted.
Another example is the debt base of Chinese businessmen who like to hold a group to keep warm. 20 18 stepped on the thunder, and all its bond funds showed obvious net withdrawal. In the recent yield of 15, the bond fund of Huaxia Business Department accounted for 8 seats, steadily occupying the top 4 with the largest loss. Among them, the Chinese double-debt Fengli bond has become the biggest loss among the bond funds that still exist in 20 18. In that year, the Class C share lost 33.5 1% because it trampled on two defaulted credit bonds.
According to its public data, as of the quarter of 20 18, 15 Huaxin Bond was the first heavyweight of the fund, accounting for 24. 18% of the net value, and 1 1 Katie MTN 1 was the fifth heavyweight of the fund, accounting for the fifth largest heavyweight. Among them, 15 Huaxin debt plummeted by 32.6438+0% immediately after the debt crisis and has been suspended. 1 1 Katie MTN 1 has also constituted a substantial breach of contract, and its valuation has been adjusted to 45.7 yuan by some fund companies, with an estimated decline of more than 50%.
In the second quarter of 2065438+2008, the net value of Huaxia double-bond Fengli bonds began to show a significant correction, with a loss as high as 28.3438+0%. By the end of 20 19 and 1 quarter, the suspended 15 Huaxin bonds still accounted for 15.43% of the fund's net value. If Huaxin fails to properly solve the debt problem in the future, it will continue to have a greater adverse impact on the net value of the fund.
What are the characteristics of Chinese double debt income bonds? That is, the proportion of institutional investors in the fund is very high. From 20 15, the share of institutional investors in the fund began to rise sharply, accounting for 88.52% of the total net assets of the fund. This kind of fund with a very high proportion of institutional investors is prone to huge redemption when encountering problems. The sharp reduction of fund shares will lead to a sharp increase in the proportion of passive positions of risky assets and a sharp increase in fund risks.
Chinese businessmen's double-debt Fengli bonds have also encountered such a situation. At the end of 20 17, the fund size was still 798 million, of which institutional investors accounted for 83.54%. By 20 18, the related default problems appeared one after another, and the fund share dropped sharply. In 20 18 1 quarter, the fund's share decreased by -8 1.97%, leaving a scale of less than 200 million, and then conscious individual investors began to redeem it. In the second quarter of 20 18, the fund's share decreased by 4.827%, and its scale was reduced to 74 million shares.
In 20 19 years, many bond funds stepped on thunder 16 Xinwei 0 1 and 18 Kangdexin. Among them, Cinda Aussie Bank's pure debt suffered a great loss because of stepping on thunder 16 Xinwei 0 1. By June 5, the fund had recorded 33.27%. Facing the complicated economic situation of 20 19, how can we avoid mines with such frequent bond defaults? What kind of bond fund should be chosen to reduce the risk of investors?
From the above two cases, we can know that these bond funds generally have one or two characteristics. One is relatively small; Second, institutional investors account for a relatively high proportion; Third, the fund company's solid income strength is not strong.
In order to meet the requirements of income, it is difficult for a bond fund with a small scale to diversify its portfolio. Once the position is stepped on, the net value of the fund may fluctuate greatly. However, bond funds with a high proportion of institutional investors are prone to huge redemption when problems arise, which further increases the concentration of problem assets and thus increases the risk of the fund; However, there is still a big gap between fund companies with weak fixed income and industry giants in investment and research teams and risk management. Especially in the current economic environment, bond default may spread further. Without a sound support system such as investment research and systematic risk management system, it is difficult to be immune.
1. Choose a fund company with large management scale or strong fixed income ability.
(1) Reference fund company size
Every year, research institutions rank fund companies according to their assets under management. Generally, the top 10 fund companies in the industry have a long history of development. The relatively perfect team and investment and research system, whether equity or fixed income, usually do not lag behind the market average, but it does not mean that all the top 10 companies have good fixed income ability, but there are still differences. According to the average income statistics of its bond funds in the past three years, three fund companies lag behind the market average, while the other seven outperform the market average. The seven fund companies are E Fund, China Merchants, Bank of China, Bosera, Guangfa and Huitianfu.
(2) refer to the fixed income ability of the fund company-the overall performance of its debt base.
On the other hand, we can start with the fixed income ability of fund companies and refer to the annual selection results of "Golden Bull Award of China Fund Industry". This selection activity is known as the "Oscar" of the fund industry and has strong industry credibility. The event was hosted by china securities journal, and was assisted by five fund professional research institutions, including Galaxy Securities, Tianxiang Investment, China Merchants Securities, Haitong Securities and Shanghai Securities.
The award is selected once a year, focusing on the sustainable return ability of funds and fund companies. Relatively speaking, it still has certain reference value. We can choose excellent fixed-income fund companies through this list, such as China Merchants Fund, which ranks among them, not only ranks in the top ten in terms of industry scale, but also has outstanding fixed-income ability.
According to the data of Tian Tian Fund Network, China Merchants Fund has 93 bond funds, with a management scale of 654.38+025.399 billion, ranking third in the bond management assets. Judging from the performance in the past three years, the average income of China Merchants Fund's debt base is 65,438+065,438+0.35%, which is about 2.6 percentage points higher than the industry average of 8.72%, far exceeding the increase of total debt index of 65,438+0.67%. This rate of return is second only to 12.85% of the industry leader E Fund.
From the microscopic data, among its 93 funds, only 1 has a negative rate of return in recent two years, with a rate of return of-1.24%; In recent years 1 year, only two companies recorded losses, with the loss ranges of 0.46% and 2.03% respectively. Judging from this data, the risk control ability of China Merchants Debt Base is excellent.
Therefore, when investors choose the debt base, they can start with the overall scale and fixed income ability of the fund company. For fund companies with weak strength, we should focus on them. It is difficult to estimate the raising scale of this fund when the management scale is not large and the fixed income ability is not outstanding. Even if the fundraising is successful, how can the follow-up operation ensure the long-term income and risk control of the fund? These are all worth thinking about. On the contrary, fund companies with large management scale or excellent fixed-income capacity usually have a relatively perfect investment and research system and risk model, which will protect investors more.
2. Choose a large bond fund with a certain number of years.
According to the above cases, it can be known that it is difficult for bond funds with too small a scale to carry out portfolio risk management, so investors of bond funds with too small a scale will not directly consider it, even the products of large fund companies will be treated equally. Because it is difficult for a clever woman to cook without rice, no matter how high the management level is, the scale is too small or it is difficult to control risks. Personally, I think the management scale of debt base should be above 500 million.
Secondly, it is better for this fund to have a certain duration, even if there is no certain duration, it should be managed by a fund manager with management experience. Investors are generally not advised to buy new bond funds. You don't know how big it will be. If the scale is too small, both subscription and redemption will cost. Personally, bond funds are best for more than 3 years. At present, there are about 124 bond funds, with the scale exceeding10 billion and the duration exceeding 3 years.
The data shows that by the end of 20 18, the amount of bond funds held by individual investors was 2.510.376 billion, accounting for 8.96%, while that held by institutional investors was 2,553.262 billion, accounting for 910.04%. That is to say, in the whole bond fund, the proportion of institutional investors has reached 9 1%, but we should pay attention to avoid those bond funds with small scale and high proportion of institutional investors, because many small bond funds are customized products outsourced by an institution, and this product is very risky for individual investors.
However, for large-scale bond funds, it is usually more than 2 billion. Even if the proportion of institutional investors is relatively high, the problem is not big, because there is usually not only one investment institution, and the risk control ability of large-scale bond funds is relatively strong, and the risk of huge redemption of institutions is relatively small.
However, investors who have already bought the fund should be careful. They need to pay close attention to the announcement of the fund and the situation of defaulted bonds, and know the actual situation of the defaulting subject and related preservation measures in time. Because there is still a period of time from failure to pay bonds on time to actual default, investors should not ignore it. If it is really impossible to judge, then simply redeem it early, so as not to cause greater losses.
To sum up, in the face of the more complicated and changeable macroeconomic situation in 20 19 and the increasingly frequent bond default market, bond investors should be extra careful. We can avoid these risks by choosing the debt-based products of fund companies with large management scale or good fixed income ability, and at the same time exclude the bond funds with small scale and high institutional investors, and pay attention to the old debt-based companies with large management scale and certain survival years.
In fact, I personally think that bond assets have long-term investment value in the portfolio, which can be used as a stabilizer of the portfolio to reduce investment risks and improve portfolio returns. The best bond asset should be bond index fund, but there are still few such products in China, so we can only buy active debt base.
It is hoped that through the detailed introduction of this article, it can provide bond investors with a perspective to examine the mine-stepping bond fund and bring some inspiration to investors.