According to this "Opinions on Promoting Rural Commercial Banks to Stick to Positioning, Strengthen Governance and Enhance Financial Service Capability" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), the funds of rural commercial banks "go back where they come from". On the one hand, more than 1.400 rural commercial banks in China will face a big reshuffle; On the other hand, the business of many lending institutions will shrink sharply.

Some voices believe that once this regulatory policy comes out, the rural commercial banks in the eastern cities will not be greatly affected, but the loan-to-deposit ratio of some rural commercial banks that cooperate with lending institutions in the central and western regions will immediately decline.

However, another person who used to be engaged in internet banking said that rural commercial banks in developed regions have more flexible business and more related businesses; However, rural commercial banks in underdeveloped areas have strict supervision and cannot cross regions.

What impact does this policy have on rural commercial banks? Will the existing stock business be suspended?

"Great Leap Forward" across provinces

Rural commercial banks are important corporate financial institutions in China's counties. By the end of September, 20 18, there were 436 rural commercial banks/kloc-0, with assets and liabilities exceeding 23 trillion yuan.

Although it is positioned as the main force serving agriculture, rural areas and small and micro enterprises, it can actually make money not only by serving the real economy, but also by doing business with each other among financial institutions. In recent years, the rapid development of shadow banking business such as interbank business and wealth management business has enabled some rural commercial banks to find new profit growth points.

The consumer industry found that the scale of inter-bank assets of Jiangsu Taixing Rural Commercial Bank continued to expand. At the end of 20 16, the inter-bank assets increased by 37.73% compared with the previous year to 5.445 billion yuan.

Although this shortcut violates the principle of territorial supervision, it has gained considerable benefits for ABC.

According to an industry insider, in the past, the funds of small and medium-sized banks such as rural commercial banks passed through the asset management channel, allowing funds to go out of the province and invest in entrusted real estate. Excluding the handling fee and wealth management income, the bank conservatively estimates that it can get six points of income. After the new regulations on asset management, most of this model was stopped by supervision, but a small amount of funds were still invested in real estate.

In addition, with the development of internet finance, the traditional business model of banks relying on deposit-loan spreads has been challenged. However, various popular P2P online lending and cash lending platforms have made some rural commercial banks that lack the ability to obtain customers see development opportunities, so they quickly put online loans through joint loans or loan-assisting models.

This model allows small and medium-sized banks to expand their business scenarios, increase customer drainage channels, solve the problem of capital investment, and allow funds originally limited to local areas to reach borrowers across the country.

According to an industry insider, cash loans mostly come from city commercial banks, private banks and joint-stock banks, and not many directly come from rural commercial banks. However, many of them help city commercial banks indirectly by doing the same trade or taking the trust channel.

In the field of consumption, it is found that there are also some rural commercial banks that directly help loans and jointly lend. Among them, part of the funds for micro-loans and loans come from Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank, Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank, Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank and Ningxia Yellow River Rural Commercial Bank. In addition, Weizhong Bank also cooperated with Fujian Rural Commercial Bank, Hankou Bank and Wujiang Rural Commercial Bank for joint loans; As for the "revolving" loan products launched by WeChat Licaitong 20 18, Changshu Rural Commercial Bank is the main cooperative lender.

A business person who works as a matchmaking platform in Shenzhen said that many of their funds come from local urban rural commercial banks, including Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank and Foshan Rural Commercial Bank, and these banks will grant credit according to the qualifications of enterprises.

Will the signing cooperation be terminated?

In this cooperation, banks generally provide most of the funds, and third-party platforms provide a small amount of funds, big data support, and some credit enhancement, so that everyone can share the benefits and risks.

Undeniably, rural commercial banks have weak links in risk prevention and control and post-loan tracking. Relevant institutions lack sufficient risk awareness while providing drainage. Once bad debts are formed, banks will eventually lose money. This is also not allowed by the regulatory authorities.

The data shows that the non-performing rate of rural commercial banks ranks first among all kinds of commercial banks for a long time, the provision coverage ratio is declining, and the main credit rating or rating outlook is lowered one after another. The development of these years has entered a dilemma.

Nowadays, the Opinions point out that in the process of business innovation and development of rural commercial banks, a few rural commercial banks have a blind expansion tendency of "staying in agriculture and getting rid of small businesses". In the future, rural commercial banks will "come from the countryside and go to the countryside".

In principle, institutions will return to the main business of credit without leaving the county (district) or crossing the county (district), which means that the Great Leap Forward movement in the past few years will come to an end.

According to the data released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, as of the end of September 20 18, the proportion of agricultural loans and small and micro enterprise loans of rural commercial banks in various loans has remained at around 60% and 50% for a long time. Now the regulations stipulate that this proportion will increase year by year until it exceeds 80%.

In the future, as rural commercial banks are emphasized to support agriculture and small enterprises, more than/kloc-0.4 million rural commercial banks across the country will face a major reshuffle.

It is worth noting that 16 rural commercial banks in large and medium-sized cities, including Beijing Rural Commercial Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, are not within the monitoring and assessment scope of the Opinions, which means that the head effect of rural commercial banks will become more and more obvious in the future.

In addition, the business of many lending institutions will be affected, and the original amount of funds will be greatly reduced.

When asked whether the regulatory policy will have an impact on their sources of funds, Mr. Guo from Shenzhen replied: "The new regulations have not been formally implemented. Even if it is implemented, you can take the trust channel, but the money still comes from the bank. "

Under a series of regulatory measures, it is foreseeable that the value of regular licensed teams such as banks, consumer finance companies and small loan companies will be further highlighted in the future, and bypassing them with licenses such as trusts and small loans will also become the choice of many institutions.

The supervision of cash loan business is more like chemotherapy, which makes cancer cells lose their support and wither.

An industry insider said that the confusion of credit data and the rectification of cash loan system service providers are actually standardizing the industry ecological chain. Now, the supervision of city commercial banks starts from the bottom of funds.

Those platforms that have signed up for cooperation may be more affected.

An auto finance service provider told Consumer News that part of their funds came from city commercial banks, but now the funds are not allowed to leave the province, and the restrictions are getting stricter and stricter. For those platforms that sign cooperation agreements with lending institutions, there will be relevant exit mechanisms to suspend the stock business after expiration.

"The industry is going to set off a hurricane, and the days of small platforms are getting worse and worse." The auto finance service provider said.