This conversion is automatically operated by the system. If the customer does not operate, it will be automatically converted by default. A staff member of ICBC told reporters.
But this does not mean that consumers have no choice. All banks have made it clear that after the batch conversion is completed, if they disagree with the conversion result, they can transfer it back through online banking or mobile banking or negotiate with the loan handling bank before February 3, 2020. It should be noted that the existing banks have made it clear that the cancellation operation can only be handled once.
"Considering that China's economy has passed the period of high-speed growth, the potential economic growth rate has dropped significantly, and the future economic growth will enter a medium or even medium-low speed, so it is unlikely to raise interest rates. It is expected that the policy interest rate and LPR will mainly fall. In the long run, choosing LPR should be more cost-effective than fixed interest rate. " Wang Jingwen, a senior researcher at Pangu think tank, told the reporter of China Real Estate News.
An insider of the banking industry believes that although it is impossible to predict the specific trend of LPR in the future, the marketization of interest rates is closely related to the overall economic environment. In a good economic environment, LPR may rise, but at the same time, everyone's repayment ability will also increase, and vice versa. Therefore, from the perspective of anti-risk, it may be better to choose LPR interest rate.
Batch conversion enters the last moment.
August 3 1 day is the deadline for LPR conversion set by the central bank. Prior to this, banks need to complete the interest rate conversion of all stock loan businesses.
On August 12, five state-owned banks, namely Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Bank, China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank, announced that starting from August 25th, individual housing loans with floating interest rates would be converted into loan market quotation (LPR) in batches.
Another state-owned bank, Bank of Communications, moved faster. On July 20th, it was announced to convert the mortgage pricing benchmark in batches, and on August 20th, it was 2 1. Those who have not yet converted will be uniformly adjusted to LPR floating interest rate addition and subtraction.
The calculation method of interest rate after mortgage conversion is "LPR+ fixed point of the latest period of repricing date for more than 5 years".
For example, a customer's mortgage interest rate is higher than the benchmark interest rate 10%. According to the current interest rate level of 4.9%, the mortgage interest rate before conversion is 5.39%. According to the regulations of the central bank, the LPR of 2065438+65438+ in February 2009, that is, 4.8%, was anchored when the personal mortgage was converted into shares. Therefore, the added value =5.39%-4.8%=0.59% or 59 basis points. The added value is fixed during the remaining term of the contract.
If the customer borrowed money to buy a house when the interest rate was low in previous years, the contract signed with the bank at that time was 20% off the benchmark interest rate, that is, 4.9%×0.8=3.92%. Then the bonus value is 3.92%-4.8% (LPR over 5 years published in 2065438+09 and 12) =-0.88%, that is, minus 88 basis points.
Wang Jingwen said that under the LPR mechanism, the mortgage interest rate is determined by the LPR plus point method, and LPR will fluctuate with the MLF interest rate, so the mortgage interest rate under the LPR mechanism has changed from the original fixed interest rate system to a floating interest rate. For the choice of pricing date, if you want to enjoy the mortgage cost savings brought by the downward interest rate as soon as possible, you can choose to adjust the corresponding loan date on that day.
The China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2020 recently released by the central bank shows that by the end of June, the conversion progress of stock loan pricing benchmark has reached 55%. Among them, the conversion progress of existing enterprise loans is 76%.
According to bankers, the repayment method of LPR will fluctuate with the external economic environment, and the fixed interest rate will be selected, including the total repayment amount and the monthly repayment amount. Customers who choose not to convert can be roughly divided into the following categories: First, the loan time was earlier, when the interest rate was lower, and some customers enjoyed 20% discount and 10% discount; Second, some customers' own loan amount is not high or the required repayment balance is not much; Third, some customers expect interest rates to rise after the economic upswing in the future, and worry that choosing LPR pricing will not add a starting point. Customers who choose to convert LPR are generally customers who have higher interest rates at the time of loan and expect interest rates to fall in the later period.
In fact, as early as 20 19 12.30, the central bank issued a notice saying that the pricing benchmark of all floating rate loans in the country should be converted to LPR, from March 1 to August 30, 2020. The main original description of this modification work is:
"From March 1 2020, financial institutions should negotiate with customers of existing floating interest rate loans on the conversion terms of pricing benchmark, and convert the interest rate pricing method agreed in the original contract into LPR as pricing benchmark (the increase point can be negative), and the value added will be fixed during the remaining period of the contract; It can also be converted into a fixed interest rate. Pricing benchmark can only be converted once, and cannot be converted again after conversion. In the last repricing cycle, the floating-rate loan of inventory shall not be converted. In principle, the conversion of the pricing benchmark of floating rate loans should be completed before August 3, 20201."
At that time, the spirit of the policy was actually "urging customers to complete anchor change on the basis of consultation", and now it is the default adjustment. If there is any objection to the conversion result, it can be transferred back through relevant channels or negotiated with the loan handling bank before February 3, 20201.
There is still room for lowering the LPR interest rate.
Since the reform of LPR pricing mechanism in August, 2009, the interest rate of LPR has decreased steadily. On March 3, affected by the epidemic, the United States took the lead in cutting interest rates. In the context of global interest rate cuts, China's market interest rate is also in the actual downward channel.
Among them, the LPR interest rate over five years has been lowered three times, with a cumulative reduction of 20 basis points, and the mortgage interest rate under LPR pricing has also declined. According to the monitoring data of Rong 360 Big Data Research Institute, the average interest rate of the first home loan in China was 5.47% from 2065438 to August 2009. In 2020, the LPR interest rate was adopted, and the average interest rate of the first home loan in July was 5.26%.
The the State Council executive meeting held on June 17 pointed out that a series of policies, such as guiding the downward trend of loan interest rate and bond interest rate, granting loans with preferential interest rate, delaying the repayment of loan principal and interest for SMEs, supporting the issuance of unsecured credit loans for SMEs, and reducing bank charges, will further promote the financial system to make a reasonable profit of/KLOC-0.5 trillion yuan to various enterprises throughout the year.
But after that, the boots of the central bank to cut interest rates have never landed. The LPR interest rate announced on July 20th has also lasted for four months, and the five-year LPR interest rate remains at 4.65%. This makes some market participants doubt the downward trend of interest rates.
According to Ming Ming, the chief fixed income analyst of CITIC Securities, the deposit and loan interest rates all declined after the LPR reform, but the downward trend of the loan interest rate in the second quarter was limited. In the second quarter, the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions only decreased by 2 basis points, both of which were less than the downward ranges of MLF and LPR. It is expected that LPR will be more difficult to go down, and the conversion of stock loan pricing benchmark is still the main source to reduce costs.
However, more people in the industry expect that there is still room for downside in LPR interest rates.
Wang Jingwen believes that LPR is determined according to MLF interest rate, which is the policy interest rate of the central bank and is mainly adjusted according to the cold and hot situation of the economy. For example, from the second half of last year to this year, due to the continuous economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, the central bank has lowered the MLF interest rate by 35 basis points three times. Accordingly, the one-year LPR is lowered by 46 basis points, and the five-year LPR is lowered by 20 basis points. Considering that China's economy has passed the period of high-speed growth, the potential economic growth rate has dropped significantly, and the future economic growth will enter a medium or even medium-low speed, so it is unlikely to raise interest rates. It is expected that the policy interest rate and LPR will mainly fall.
Zhou, an analyst at China Everbright Bank, said that the downward trend of LPR will promote financial institutions to make reasonable profits in the real economy. The main driving factors are the RRR cut by the central bank, the reduction of debt cost by banks and the downward trend of MLF interest rate. In addition, it is necessary to consider the impact of the lagging bank non-performing rate. Considering the domestic macroeconomic performance and the above factors, it is estimated that LPR will have a downside of 10 to 15 basis points in the second half of the year.