First of all, the real estate market heated up sharply in 2009.
Under the influence of national economic stimulus policies, especially loose monetary policy and inflation expectations, China's real estate market has performed much better than expected this year, with new situations such as accelerated investment, increased sales, rapid price increase and abundant sources of funds.
■ 1. Investment growth: accelerated quarter by quarter, and the recovery momentum was better than expected.
Driven by factors such as market recovery and sales growth, the growth rate of investment in real estate development in China has accelerated quarter by quarter this year. In the first three quarters, the investment in real estate development was 2,505 billion yuan, up by 17.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.8 and 13.6 percentage points higher than that in the first half and the first quarter respectively. Among them, the investment in commercial housing was175.82 billion yuan, up by 13.4% year-on-year, up by 6.3 and 10.2 percentage points respectively compared with the first half of the year and the first quarter. Estimates show that in September, the growth rate of real estate development investment reached 37%, 2 percentage points higher than that in August, and the growth rate of urban fixed assets investment was higher for the second consecutive month. Previously, the industry predicted that the growth of real estate investment this year would be within 10% or even negative. At present, the growth rate in the first three quarters of this year has reached 17.7%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 20%, which is much better than expected.
2. Sales volume increased: the three major demands were released in a centralized way, and the market sales volume soared.
In 2009, with the rapid warming of the market, real estate sales increased substantially, and there was a "blowout" market that had never been seen in recent years. In the first three quarters, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 584 million square meters, up 44.8% year-on-year, the highest level in the same period since 1998 housing reform. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 46.4%; The sales area of office buildings increased by 23.5%; The sales area of commercial business premises increased by 30.6%. The total sales of commercial housing reached 2,753.2 billion yuan, up 73.4% year-on-year, while it decreased by 15% in the same period last year.
■ In terms of regions, in 2008, the sales volume of regions with large market adjustment increased rapidly. For example, with the gradual recovery of the property market, the turnover of hot spots such as Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang continues to rise. From June 5438 to September, the sales area and sales amount in Beijing increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the sales area and sales in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
3. Price increase: the year-on-year increase turned from negative to positive, and it rose for seven consecutive months.
While the volume of transactions continued to enlarge, house prices also continued to rise, from negative to positive year-on-year, rising for seven consecutive months. In September, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide rose by 2.8% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that in August, which was the third consecutive month of year-on-year increase since the beginning of the year. The chain increased by 0.7%, and it increased for seven consecutive months.
■ By region, in September, 57 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China rose year-on-year, an increase of 26 cities over that in June, among which the five cities with the largest increase were: Shenzhen11%,Wenzhou 8.2%, Jinhua 7.7% and Yinchuan 6./kloc-. There are 13 cities with falling prices, which is 3 1 city less than that in the first half of the year. Among them, Shijiazhuang, Jilin, Yueyang, Tangshan and Xuzhou decreased by 3.7%, 3.3% and 2.8% respectively. Although the price increase in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai has slowed down recently, the price increase in second-and third-tier cities such as Xining, Yinchuan, Tianjin and Nanchang is accelerating, indicating that the price increase in China real estate market is spreading from first-tier cities to provincial capitals, small and medium-sized cities and other second-and third-tier cities.
Table 65438+cities with rapid housing price increase in September
■ 4. Abundant sources of funds: the growth of domestic loans and personal mortgage loans has obviously accelerated.
Affected by loose monetary policy, increased sales and direct financing, real estate development investment funds have been abundant and increased rapidly this year, effectively alleviating the shortage of funds for developers. In the first three quarters, the source of funds for real estate development enterprises this year was 3899 1 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, and the growth rate was 15.2 percentage points higher than that of the first half of the year and 28.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. It is particularly noteworthy that the growth of domestic loans and personal mortgage loans has obviously accelerated, and the proportion of capital sources has increased significantly. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of domestic loans reached 47.2%, accelerating by nearly 40 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for 2 1% of the source of funds, increasing by 2 percentage points year-on-year; The growth rate of personal mortgage loans reached 65,438+007.7%, down 65,438+04.9% from the same period of last year, accounting for 65,438+03.7% of the source of funds, up 6.6 percentage points from the same period of last year.
■ 5. Supply rebounded: the growth rate of construction area stopped falling and rebounded, and the newly started area rebounded strongly.
In the first three quarters, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises nationwide was 2.775 billion square meters, up 15.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.7 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. This is the fourth consecutive month that the construction area growth rate has achieved positive growth. The newly started housing area was 732 million square meters, down 0.4% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 5.5 percentage points narrower than that in1-August. The growth rate of construction area continued to rise, and the decline of newly started area narrowed, indicating that with the "rising volume and price" of the real estate market and the acceleration of destocking process, the market confidence of developers gradually recovered, and the willingness of enterprises to expand investment continued to increase.
6. The national real estate boom index continued to rise. In September, the national real estate development boom index (referred to as "national housing boom index") was 10 1.08, up by 1.00 points from August and 4.5 points from June. This is the second consecutive month since this year to stay above 100. From the classification index: the classification index of real estate development investment is 100.0 1, up 2.26 points from August; This year, the fund source classification index is 107.75, which is 1.93 points higher than that in August. The classification index of land development area was 93.93, up 0.68 points from August. The classified index of vacant area of commercial housing is 90.32, which is 1.0 1 point higher than that in August. The classified index of building construction area is 99.06, which is 4. 1 1 point higher than that in August.
■ Second, many factors push the real estate market to rise against the trend.
1. Loose monetary policy is the direct cause.
Real estate is a typical capital-intensive industry, and the degree of capital tension has a decisive impact on the operation of real estate. Since the beginning of this year, in order to cope with the international financial crisis and promote housing consumption, under the moderately loose monetary policy, bank credit has increased substantially, and at the same time, a series of preferential policies have been introduced, such as reducing the down payment ratio, preferential loan interest rates, and tax reduction and exemption in transaction links, which have effectively stimulated housing consumption. On the supply side, the moderately loose monetary policy has provided sufficient funds for developers, alleviating the situation of tight funds for developers; On the demand side, the deposit and loan interest rates have been lowered many times, and the down payment ratio of house purchase has been reduced, which has led to the simultaneous amplification of market demand including self-occupation and investment speculation. When the supply elasticity is small or even reduced, the previous backlog of market demand has been released centrally, resulting in a sharp rise in house prices.
2. Inflation expectation is an indirect inducement.
Worried that countries around the world will inject a lot of liquidity into the market, which will lead to serious inflation, and the domestic and international economic rebound momentum is better than expected, investors' expectations of future inflation are getting stronger and stronger, especially the demand of high-income groups for asset preservation and appreciation. With the economic recession, slow development of financial market and limited investment channels, buying a house has become the first choice for high-income people in China to preserve and increase their assets. If in the first quarter of this year, the real estate market demand was dominated by self-occupation and improvement demand, then since the second quarter, investment and speculative demand have become the main force of market demand and housing price increase. In the third quarter, with the dynamic fine-tuning of monetary policy (such as tightening the second home loan), the demand for investment speculation was suppressed, which made the transaction volume of some cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen) shrink again, and there was a situation of "stagnant price increase".
3. The upgrading of consumption structure is an important foundation
International experience shows that with the improvement of residents' income level, the proportion of basic subsistence consumption, such as food and clothing, has decreased in most countries' consumption structure, while the proportion of developmental enjoyment consumption, such as housing, medical care, education and transportation, has increased (that is, Engel coefficient has been decreasing). In 2008, China's per capita GDP reached US$ 3,266.8, which will exceed US$ 3,500 this year. According to the changing law of residents' consumption structure, housing and cars will always be the main force to upgrade residents' consumption structure in China at present and in the next few years. Since the beginning of this year, the housing market has warmed up, not only because of the concentrated release of investment and speculative demand, but also because of the continuous upgrading of China residents' structure and the increasing demand of consumers for housing.
Third, the possibility of readjusting the real estate market in China.
No matter from the perspective of industry development cycle or price level, the space and possibility of future adjustment of China real estate market still exists, even relatively large.
1. From the perspective of industry development cycle, the last round of real estate market adjustment in China was not sufficient.
In the four stages of the macroeconomic boom cycle (depression, recovery, prosperity and recession), there are four combinations of "low growth, low price", "high growth, low price", "low growth and high price" between economic growth and prices in turn. In fact, the real estate industry has a similar cyclical law: (1) Generally speaking, the adjustment of the real estate market always precedes the decline in transaction volume, but at this time, the house price is still firm, and there is a so-called "volume and price fall together" stage; (2) Then the price and quantity both fall, that is, the stage of "both quantity and price fall"; (3) With the decline of prices, the effective demand is increasing, and the volume of transactions begins to pick up, entering the stage of "quantity increases and price decreases"; (4) Finally, with the improvement of macro-economy and the continuous increase of trading volume, speculative demand is constantly active, and then evolved into a stage of "volume and price rising together". The time needed to develop from one stage to another mainly depends on the stage of real estate development and the change of external environment.
According to the industry development cycle, the development process of China real estate since 2000 can be divided into three stages:
The first stage (2000-2002): the stage of "quantity increases and price decreases". According to the data in Table 2, the national housing prices rose slightly at this stage, and the average annual increase of the housing sales price index in the past three years was 2.0%. Due to the centralized release of a large number of real demands accumulated before the reform of the housing system, coupled with the small price increase, the market turnover has increased significantly (with an average annual increase of more than 20%) at this stage.
Table 2. National housing sales price in 2000-2009
Index, housing sales change
■ The second stage (2003-2007): the stage of "quantity and price rising together". Since 2003, affected by the rising economic cycle and the preparations for the Beijing Olympic Games, the national housing sales have continued to grow (with an average annual growth rate of about 24%). At the same time, the national housing prices have also entered a fast-rising channel. In these five years, the national housing sales price index has increased by more than 7% every year.
The third stage (2008): the stage of "quantity and price falling together". With the continuous activity of the market and the increase of speculative activities, the national housing prices have been rising, but the rising high housing prices have crowded out most home improvement buyers. Coupled with the suppression of national macro-control in the first half of 2008 and the impact of the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the current market turnover has fallen sharply. In 2008, the national housing transaction volume decreased by nearly 20%, which was the first annual decline since the housing reform in 1998.
According to the development law of the industry and international experience, the adjustment cycle of the real estate market is generally more than three years, while the adjustment duration of the real estate market in China since 2008 is less than 1 year. If the negative growth of house prices is used as a sign of adjustment, the last round of adjustment only lasted for seven months (from August 2008 to February 2009). In 2009, influenced by the national economic stimulus policy, especially the monetary policy, the real estate market ended its adjustment ahead of schedule. It can be seen that the adjustment of China real estate market in the last round was incomplete and insufficient.
2. The house price is on the high side and there is a lot of room for adjustment.
There are many ways to measure house prices. Here we measure the overall level of China's housing prices through three methods: absolute price method, price-income ratio and price-rent ratio.
(1) The ratio of house price to income is high.
When housing is used to meet the demand of self-occupation, the real purchasing power of residents is the main factor supporting the price level, which is usually expressed by the "price-to-income ratio". After investigating the capital cities of more than 50 countries, UN-HABITAT believes that the reasonable price of a house should be two to three times the annual income of residents. More than six times, most people can't afford it, and there is a problem in the market. It is estimated that the ratio of house price to income in China has reached 7.8: 1 in 2007. The income from house prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen all exceeds 10: 1, and the core area of Beijing is as high as 22: 1, which is significantly higher than that in international cities such as Tokyo, London and Vancouver.
(2) The price-rent ratio is increasing year by year, and market bubbles and risks are accumulating.
When real estate is regarded as investment demand, the rent is an important factor to determine the house price. Internationally, the ratio of house price to rent is usually used to indicate the level of house price. Limited by the availability of data, here we use the ratio of the commercial housing sales price index and the rental price index published by the National Bureau of Statistics to express the relative changes of housing prices and rental prices. If the ratio is greater than 1, it means that prices and rents are relatively high, and speculative components and market bubbles are increasing; Conversely, if the ratio is less than 1, it means that prices and rents are relatively low, and speculative components and bubbles in the market are decreasing. According to the data in Table 3, in recent years, the "price-rent ratio" of China's real estate market has been continuously greater than 1. In 2003, it was 1.03 in China, and it remained above 1.04 in 2004-2008, and reached 1.04 in the first three quarters of 2009. The ratio of price to rent is higher than 1, which shows that with the increase of house prices in recent years, the speculative and bubble components in China real estate market are increasing.
Table 3. National housing sales price index
And rental price index (last year = 100)
■ Note: * Data for the third quarter of 2009.
(3) In absolute terms, the housing prices in China's first tier cities have approached or even surpassed those in developed countries.
In 2008, a single-family villa with an area of 200 square meters in Chicago, USA, the median price of a new house was $264,000, and the unit price was about 9,240 yuan/square meter. The price of an apartment building with an area of 80 square meters and parking spaces in Tokyo, Japan is about 30 million yen, equivalent to RMB 6,543,800+0,920 yuan, which is about 24,000 yuan per square meter. On the other hand, in China, in 2009, more than 70% of the buildings within the Fourth Ring Road in Beijing sold for 20,000 yuan/square meter. Considering the purchasing power parity, China's housing has only 70 years of land use rights. Considering that the per capita income of the United States and Japan is dozens or even dozens of times higher than that of China, the housing prices of first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen in China have actually far exceeded those of developed countries.
Therefore, no matter from the industry development cycle, or from the three indicators to measure housing prices, the overall level of housing prices in China is obviously high at present, and there is room and possibility for adjustment, and it can even be said that it is still relatively large.
Iv. Real estate market 20 10
It is unlikely that there will be a major adjustment.
Although it is possible for China real estate market to adjust again, the specific time and extent of adjustment mainly depend on two factors: policy, especially monetary policy and macroeconomic trend. From the perspective of policy factors, with the establishment of the trend of economic stabilization and recovery and the increase of inflationary pressure, the operation of monetary policy will continue to tighten, which will lead to the adjustment of the real estate market; However, from the perspective of macroeconomic operation, the worst period of the international financial crisis has passed, and the economic situation next year is better than this year, thus promoting the real estate market. Generally speaking, although there is a possibility of adjustment in China real estate market, it is unlikely that there will be adjustment in the national real estate market in 20 10, that is, the house price and transaction volume will drop sharply. If new control policies are not introduced, it will not be ruled out that house prices will continue to rise irrationally next year.
1. The growth rate of real estate development investment will be around 15%.
Investment in real estate development will increase rapidly in 20 10, and the situation of negative growth in newly started housing area will be obviously improved. First of all, the rise in housing prices and the rebound in sales this year will promote the increase in development investment. Secondly, reducing the capital ratio of real estate development projects will lower the industry financing threshold and enhance the investment ability of developers. Third, the increase in housing sales has greatly reduced housing inventory, and limited inventory will prompt developers to accelerate investment. Fourth, the introduction of the ten major industrial revitalization plans will stimulate investment in related industries, which will certainly drive the rapid growth of investment in commercial housing. Coupled with the continuous expansion of the construction scale of government affordable housing, it is expected that the investment in real estate development will continue to grow rapidly next year, with an annual growth of about 15%.
2. It is unlikely that the national house price will drop sharply.
With the tightening of monetary policy, all localities have tightened the second-home loan policy, and investment and speculative demand will be suppressed to some extent. It is not ruled out that house prices and transaction volume in some cities will decline next year. However, on the whole, with the support of the rising macroeconomic prosperity, the increase of residents' income, the overall easing of liquidity and the upgrading of consumption structure, it is unlikely that house prices will fall sharply next year.
3. The risks in the national real estate market are mainly concentrated in first-tier cities.
Here, the "ratio of house price to income" is still used to measure the actual house price and its bubble degree. We have counted the ratio of house price to income in 34 provincial capital cities and cities with separate plans. The results (see Table 4) show that,
(1) The ratio of house price to income is high in most cities. Among the 35 municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capitals and cities under separate state planning in Chinese mainland, only two have a house price-income ratio below 6.0: 1, and there are 1 2 in areas above 6.0:1and below 8: 1, from 8: 1 and/kloc-.
(2) Cities with high ratio of house price to income are mainly concentrated in first-tier cities and economically developed cities. For example, in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai, as well as developed coastal cities such as Dalian, Xiamen, Tianjin and Hangzhou, the ratio of house price to income has exceeded 10: 1, and the ratio of house price to income is generally low in most cities in the central and western regions.
(3) The ratio of house price to income in some cities in the central and western regions is also high, which needs attention. Such as Lanzhou and Xi in the northwest, Chengdu, Nanning and Kunming in the southwest, and Nanchang and Taiyuan in the middle.
Table 4. Comparison of national housing price-income ratio
■ Note: Due to limited data, the data in 2007 are used in this table. Income refers to the disposable income of urban households, and the housing area is calculated according to each set of 90 square meters.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) increases supply and inhibits demand.
Promote the healthy development of the housing market
Although the recovery of the housing market has played a positive role in expanding domestic demand and ensuring growth this year, the high and rapid rise of housing prices is not conducive to the development of the industry and macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore, in the future, China's real estate market regulation will focus on "stability", insist on increasing supply and curbing unreasonable demand, and take encouraging the demand for first-time home purchase, protecting the demand for second-time improvement and curbing the demand for investment speculation as the basic principles for formulating the next stage of housing market policy.
1. Insist on maintaining pressure, treat it differently, and adopt different policies according to different needs.
At present, insufficient consumption and excessive consumption coexist in China real estate market. Insufficient consumption means that the housing needs of low-and middle-income people have not been fundamentally solved, while excessive consumption means that a considerable proportion of high-income people have multiple houses, and housing resources are excessive. Therefore, in view of the overall high housing prices and excessive price increase in China, as well as the coexistence of insufficient consumption and excessive consumption in China's real estate market, in the future, China's real estate regulation and control policies should take increasing supply and curbing unreasonable demand as the top priority of policy regulation and control, meet self-occupation and improving demand, curb investment and speculative demand, and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.
2. Fiscal and monetary policies take a multi-pronged approach to curb unreasonable demand.
Strictly implement the mortgage down payment ratio policy, suspend the real estate stimulus policy introduced at the beginning of the year, including 30% discount on interest rate, lower down payment ratio, lower transaction tax, etc. Strictly restrict the illegal entry of credit funds into the real estate market. As the economy picks up and prices rise further (for example, reaching 3%), interest rates will be raised in due course. Further strengthen supervision and restrictions on foreign investment in the real estate market. Non-local residents have certain policy restrictions on buying houses. Accelerate the introduction of property tax policy and curb investment speculation demand.
3. Improve the supply structure and further increase the construction of affordable housing.
Although the country has stepped up the pace of the construction of affordable housing in recent years, judging from the proportion of affordable housing in the total housing supply and the housing demand of low-and middle-income families, the supply of affordable housing in China is still insufficient and the pace of construction is still slow. In the next few years, the state should further strengthen the construction of affordable housing, increase the effective supply of the market, and achieve the purpose of stabilizing housing prices, meeting demand and promoting the healthy and stable development of real estate. The policy restricts large state-owned enterprises from entering the real estate market, striving to be "land kings" and boosting land prices and housing prices.
4. Guide the banking industry to implement differentiated credit policies according to local conditions and under pressure.
Adhere to local conditions, maintain pressure, and guide commercial banks to implement differentiated credit policies according to economic development, market demand, housing price level, construction cost, residents' income, geographical environment and other factors. Expand credit supply to areas with reasonable housing prices, bubbles and less risks.