The People's Bank of China reported on the 27th that the third quarterly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee 20021was held on September 24th, and the meeting analyzed the domestic and international economic and financial situation.

The meeting clarified the general tone of monetary policy, that is, a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhance the stability of total credit growth, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically match the nominal economic growth rate, and keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable.

The real estate market is the biggest concern of this regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. The meeting clearly pointed out that it is necessary to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.

The reporter combed and found that it was the first time that the word "real estate" was mentioned for a long time in the press release of the quarterly meeting of the central bank's monetary policy Committee.

Enhance the stability of total credit growth.

The meeting pointed out that we should do a good job in cross-cycle policy design, coordinate macro-policy convergence this year and next, and support high-quality economic development. Make good use of the newly added 300 billion yuan small-scale refinancing quota, and support small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households to increase loans.

In fact, Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, stressed in August this year that we should continue to do a good job in cross-cycle design, do a good job in connecting the credit work in the second half of this year and the first half of next year, increase credit support for the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, enhance the stability of total credit growth, and keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically matching the nominal economic growth rate.

Color, chief economist of Founder Securities, said that the emphasis on cross-cycle adjustment is mainly due to the greater pressure from the macroeconomic situation in the second half of next year, and the economic growth may slow down due to the influence of the base utility in the first half of next year. Therefore, the current monetary policy should not only consider the economic operation this year, but also consider the risk of economic growth decline in the first half of next year, and comprehensively consider the credit work arrangements for this year and next.

Tang Jianwei, chief macro analyst of the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, believes that it is expected that the People's Bank of China will adhere to the principle of "focusing on me" and independently formulate its own monetary policy according to domestic economic growth, price and financial situation. In the future, "stable currency" and "wide credit" are expected to become the main direction of monetary regulation.

The judgment of "wide credit" is relative to the first half of the year. Tang Jianwei explained that the data showed that the growth rate of social integration continued to drop from 13.3% in February last year to 10.3% in July. At present, the People's Bank of China has added 300 billion yuan to support the micro-credit line, and allowed commercial banks to increase the annual credit line and speed up the launch, releasing a positive signal.

Maintain the healthy development of the real estate market.

Compared with previous regular meetings, the regular meeting in the third quarter added relevant references to the real estate market. The meeting pointed out that maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.

"From the overall tone, it basically meets the broad credit expectations of the market." Tang Jianwei told reporters that the previous credit was in the real estate field, and the regular meeting pointed out that "maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers", indicating that the credit policy of the real estate market may remain under pressure, rather than being completely tightened.

The data shows that the growth rate of real estate loans is generally stable. At the end of June, the balance of real estate loans of major financial institutions (including foreign capital) in China was 50.8 trillion yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of March.

Maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market does not mean a "sharp turn" in the real estate financial policy. Color believes that the relevant expressions of the real estate market are mainly aimed at the operating risks of individual large real estate enterprises in the near future, and will still implement the positioning of "housing and not speculating" at the policy level, and maintain a certain degree of strength in the real estate financial policy.

On August 19 this year, responsible comrades of relevant departments of the People's Bank of China and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China interviewed senior executives of Evergrande Group, pointing out that Evergrande Group, as the head enterprise of the real estate industry, must conscientiously implement the central government's strategic plan for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, strive to maintain steady operation, actively resolve debt risks, and maintain the real estate market and financial stability.

"Due to the operational risks of large-scale housing enterprises, a series of risks may be triggered, especially for commercial banks and individual creditors. For example, if a real estate enterprise sells a collection, but fails to hand over the house, it must be properly handled to ensure that the sold houses can be delivered on time and with good quality. This is an important means to prevent the risk from further expanding. " Color representation.

Promote the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools in an orderly manner.

The meeting made arrangements to optimize the credit structure, build an effective financial support system for the real economy, improve the financial support innovation system, guide financial institutions to increase medium and long-term loans to manufacturing industries, and strive to make financial support for private enterprises adapt to the contribution of private enterprises to economic and social development.

In terms of green finance, the meeting proposed to promote the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools in an orderly manner, aiming at achieving the peak of carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality, and improving the green financial system.

This may mean that carbon emission reduction support tools are expected to land in the second half of the year.

Previously, in the working meeting in the second half of 20021,the People's Bank of China requested to implement carbon emission reduction support tools, provide low-cost funds to qualified financial institutions, and guide financial institutions to provide preferential interest rate financing for key areas with significant emission reduction effects.

In terms of the development of commercial banks, the meeting called for guiding large banks to sink their service focus, promoting small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main businesses, enhancing the vitality and resilience of financial markets, and improving the modern financial system with high adaptability, competitiveness and inclusiveness. Support banks to replenish capital and improve their ability to serve the real economy and guard against financial risks.

In addition, the meeting also emphasized the flexible and accurate implementation of monetary policy, strengthening coordination with fiscal, industrial and regulatory policies, coordinating financial support for the real economy and preventing risks, keeping the economy running in a reasonable range and promoting high-quality economic development.

Source: shanghai securities news.