At the meeting, an indicator was even mentioned, that is, efforts were made to ensure the positive growth of China's economy in the second quarter. At the beginning of the year, the growth target of 5.5 was put forward. In the first quarter, we increased by 4.8%, but in the second quarter, we required that it should be greater than 0. This shows how much pressure there is. Why set such a goal? The Prime Minister has repeatedly said on many occasions that "once an economy as big as China slips out of a reasonable range, it will be difficult to pull it back without paying a huge price and taking longer". I think the purpose is to stop the downward trend. There is only one month left in June of the second quarter. It is conceivable that May is worse than April.
Let's look at some published data:
① In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, reaching 6. 1%, especially 3 1 big cities. According to the survey, the unemployment rate is as high as 6.7%, especially1young people between the ages of 6 and 24 (mostly college students), which is the highest since this statistic.
(2) Market players (that is, all kinds of large, medium, small, micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households) have grown from less than 50 million households before 10 to/500,000 households now, with more than10,000 households. In April this year, the number of new enterprises decreased by 12.8%, and the number of cancelled enterprises also increased by 2,365,438. Many small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households have not reached the income level of 20 19.
③ The service industry production index decreased by 6. 1%, which was 5.2 percentage points higher than that in March. Total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased 1 1. 1%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size actually slowed down from a year-on-year increase of 53% in March to a decrease of 2.9%, with negative growth in power generation, transportation and new loans. The purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry and the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry are 47.4% and 4 1.9% respectively, which continue to be below the Gu Rong line.
(4) In April, the national fiscal revenue dropped by 5.9%, especially the local fiscal revenue dropped even faster, reaching 6.6%. Among them, the income from land use right transfer decreased by 29.8%.
On the whole, the relevant measures mentioned at the meeting probably have the following aspects:
The first is the loan. Increase financial support for key investment projects. Some water conservancy projects, with investment of hundreds of billions in more than ten years, have been proved, but they have not been implemented because of insufficient money. Judging from the meaning of the speech, these projects may soon be supported by national debt and special debt. At the same time, it is necessary to appropriately increase the macro leverage ratio, support financially sustainable enterprises to appropriately increase the leverage ratio, stabilize the leverage ratio of households, and support financial institutions to provide loans to small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, truck drivers' car loans and personal housing and consumer loans seriously affected by the epidemic, and postpone the repayment of principal and interest during the year.
The second is employment. If the unemployment rate continues to climb, the number of college graduates this year will be 1 10 million. Now the employment signing rate of college graduates is much less than in previous years, and the consequences will be very serious. There are still 290 million migrant workers in our country, so we should take various measures to start the transformation of water conservancy, transportation and urban infrastructure, and even provide more jobs and employment through "replacing vibration with industry".
The third is to ensure food, energy, industrial chain and supply chain. Food is very important, but there are no sudden problems at present; In terms of energy, rising international oil prices and imported inflation have brought a series of problems. Large-scale coal mines are being deployed to release high-quality coal production capacity in an orderly manner, speed up the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, and strengthen the construction of energy storage capacity of crude oil and coal to prevent the recurrence of power cuts. Prevent speculation in the industrial chain and supply chain, and increase full support for industrial enterprises whose civil aviation railways are still greatly affected by the epidemic.
The fourth is to promote the recovery of consumption and expand effective investment. The epidemic situation has a great impact on the consumption of contact and gathering services, which not only affects the lives of residents, but also leads to insufficient operating income and consumption of many shops, and also leads to the contraction of the economic cycle. In terms of real estate, there are still more than 10 million rural people entering cities every year, and there is a rigid demand for housing. We must insist on housing instead of speculation, support rigid and improved housing demand, and make corresponding adjustments in policies to stimulate consumption. In terms of infrastructure. It will be inclined to water conservancy projects, water diversion and irrigation projects, old residential renovation projects and some ordinary traffic projects. It was said at the meeting that these projects should be managed, not for show, and there is no need to open one or two hundred together.
The fifth is to stabilize foreign trade.
In addition, this year China entered the flood season half a month earlier than normal, and flood control and disaster prevention is also an important task.
Finally, talk about some of my own ideas:
First, cherish job opportunities. The current economic environment can be described as bad. Having a job now does not mean that you can keep it in the future, nor can you guarantee that your income will not drop. Even if the unemployment rate drops, it is only macro statistics. For individuals, some people may find jobs and others may lose their jobs. Therefore, we should strive to improve our ability and competitiveness.
The second is to cover the money bag. It was mentioned at the meeting that "some people are worried that there are difficulties behind, and the willingness to deposit is strong, and bank loans cannot be loaned. From a macro perspective, it will not only affect economic development, but also bring risks to finance. " Therefore, the state will try its best to stimulate consumption and loans. The obvious point is to take out the money in the pockets of ordinary people and ensure the normal circulation of the economy, but mainly it wants to give more money to people with good economic foundation and help those who are poorer. Therefore, for those who don't have much money, they should be a little self-aware, restrain their consumption desires that don't match their abilities, save more money and improve their ability to resist risks.