65438+February 2 1, the real estate sector rose strongly. According to the CSI Jinniu APP, as of the close, the real estate service sector rose by 7.62% and the real estate development sector rose by 6.2 1%, ranking the top two in the A-share sector.
Many policies have been intensively introduced.
Recently, the regulatory authorities have made intensive statements or issued policies on the real estate market, aiming at maintaining the smooth operation of real estate and better meeting the reasonable housing needs of buyers.
In terms of credit and risk prevention, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission recently jointly issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Services for Risk Disposal Projects of Key Real Estate Enterprises, encouraging banking financial institutions to carry out M&A loans for real estate projects in a safe and orderly manner in accordance with the principles of legal compliance, controllable risks and sustainable business, and supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and reorganize key real estate enterprises.
Fu, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said recently that in the next stage, we should adhere to the orientation of "housing and not speculating" in accordance with the requirements of the central authorities, adhere to the simultaneous purchase of rents, accelerate the development of the long-term rental market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and "make policies for the city" to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry and better meet the housing needs of the people.
From the perspective of local policies, according to the incomplete statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in the past month, more than 20 cities including Guilin, Jinjiang, Wuhu, Jingmen and Hengyang have come up with "real money and silver" and introduced policies to stabilize the property market.
Wang Qiuheng, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, said that at present, cities are facing different degrees of prosperity, and each place may have greater autonomy to adjust policies according to the situation. In the future, the market will be parallel to "limit growth" and "limit decline", and "control" and "adjustment". It is not excluded that cities with high inventory pressure will make further adjustments to the property market policy.
In the financing of real estate enterprises, since June 5438+065438+ 10, with the increase of policy support, the issuance of real estate bonds has increased substantially. According to the data of Ke Rui Research Center, 1 1 month, 100, the total domestic and foreign bond financing of typical housing enterprises reached 74.963 billion yuan, up 65.8% from the previous month.
Judging from the recent bond review progress, the review of various real estate bonds has been accelerated since 65438+February, including supply chain ABS, and the early issuance has been slow. The issuance of credit bonds of housing enterprises also continued to pick up. According to the data of Huaxi Securities, as of 12 and 16, real estate enterprises issued a total of 29.99 billion yuan of domestic credit bonds, an increase of 8.7% from the previous month.
The intensity of "policy for the city" is expected to increase.
It is generally believed in the industry that the financing of housing enterprises is gradually picking up, and the intensity of "city-based policies" may increase.
Cao Xute, an analyst at Shenzhen-Hong Kong Securities, said that judging from the recent statements of various regulators, it is the most direct purpose to keep the bottom line from systemic risks. It can also be seen that the marginal relaxation of the government at the financing end is rapid. As the risk shifts from the financing end to the sales end, the policy goal also begins to shift from the financing environment to the expected management.
"In the context of the downward pressure on the credit side of the industry boom, the follow-up industry bottoming policy is still worth looking forward to." Wang Xiaoyong, an analyst at Northeast Securities, said that marginal easing at the policy end does not mean a change in regulation, and the current policy pays more attention to safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.
Lin, an analyst at Dongxing Securities, said that the core of the current local policy is to maintain a stable and healthy development of the real estate market under the principle of "housing and not speculating", with stability as the mainstay and no ups and downs. In terms of credit policy, it is important to meet the reasonable credit demand of housing enterprises and property buyers, which will help to smoothly resolve risks in related fields.
Looking forward to 2022, Xia Dan, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, predicted that with the easing of policies in 2022, the downturn in the property market is expected to be marginally improved. On the one hand, the real estate market is stable, which promotes the normal release of demand. The new amount of personal mortgage is expected to increase year-on-year, and the speed of loan approval will accelerate. The mortgage interest rate may be adjusted structurally, focusing on meeting the needs of the first suite and improvement, and promoting the normal release of the demand for home purchase. On the other hand, the policy is bottoming out rather than stimulating, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the real estate market is still strong, and the fundamentals of the industry are still facing downward pressure. At the same time, commercial housing may be in short supply, and the growth rate of transactions is unlikely to rebound significantly.