Departments and * * * institutions have their considerations. It is not surprising that there is such a difference in China. Pile head
For investors, the key question is to what extent this difference will affect the final formulation and implementation of China's monetary policy. I
Experts believe that in the end, the central government will follow the advice of the central bank to make a decision.
If this logic continues, the challenge for China is how to realize the role of the central bank in formulating and executing the currency.
Policy independence. This may solve the interest rate and monetary policy problems of * * * institutions and departments.
Disagreement. China started to raise interest rates at the end of 10, which once again proved that China's top management can make the right decision at the right time.
Decide. Next, it should not be an exception for China to change its fixed exchange rate policy. Actually, China.
The recent changes in interest rates prove that JPMorgan Chase's view is correct.
Because we have noticed that the recent interest rate hike means that China's * * * departments will rely more on market orientation.
Policy tools for managing the current economic cycle. We believe that the next step of policy normalization will be the current.
The exchange rate system has changed, which is the biggest difference from the last round of austerity policy.
The biggest argument about the current exchange rate system is whether China needs to increase its currency flexibility to solve its current burden.
Economic challenges. Under the fixed exchange rate mechanism, China lost its monetary policy autonomy. Structurally, China
I think the exchange rate mechanism should be made more flexible. We believe that with the passage of time,
With the passage of time, China will reform the fixed exchange rate mechanism in the next three to six months. In fact, in terms of circulation,
It seems that in the current situation, in order to better and more efficiently cope with inflation expectations, China.
The exchange rate mechanism needs to be adjusted, especially in the face of import costs pushing up inflation.
Considering that the administrative austerity policy has been adopted and the interest rate hike cycle has begun, it will become necessary to raise interest rates.
Demand-oriented inflation is the pressure of rising consumer prices in China, but the pressure is not great, and the inflation pressure in China is great.
It may come from external factors, such as high prices of oil, raw materials and commodities. Please note that food prices are beginning to stabilize.
To be sure, the authorities are paying more and more attention to the non-food components in CPI, which reflects a fact.
China's inflation rate may rise due to oil prices and other import costs.
165438+ 10 CPI decreased by 0.4% in the month, and this amazing decline was mainly due to food consumption.
Changes in commodity prices, although the upward pressure on non-food prices in the third quarter announced last month has also eased.
Based on a year ago, the annual growth rate of food prices only increased by 5.9%, the lowest level since February.
The growth of.
The new inflation is worrying.
The recent slowdown in CPI growth is due to the slowdown in food prices, not the inflation of food prices.
But be strong. Monetary growth means the easing of inflationary pressure and the threat of wage-driven inflation.
The threat is probably exaggerated. The increase of import cost is the main threat of inflation in 2005. adjuster
RMB exchange rate is the best solution.
The economic report of China 10 was surprisingly good, which became the main performance of greatly reducing the upward pressure of CPI.
. Compared with a year ago, the broad consumer price index reached 5.3% in July and August, while in September,
It dropped to 5.2%, and further dropped to 4.3% in 10. In fact, month after month, October
The broad consumer price index has dropped by 0. 1%, which is the index since June 2003.
It slipped for the first time. Although, since the beginning of 2003, the price inflation of consumer goods has begun.
But this is mainly due to the sharp rise in food prices. Accordingly, after the grain harvest, the generalized consumer price
This index reflects the stability of food prices. On a monthly basis, in 10, the food composition of CPI decreased by 0. 5%.
Last month saw the smallest increase since March: the annualized growth rate was 10.0%.
During this period, non-food prices continued to be at a medium level, but at the same time they rose steadily: the annual growth rate in 10 was.
1.3%, the fastest speed since August 2006 is 5438+0. The focus of inflationary pressure is no longer
The food factor has become a broader cost-driven inflation. JPMorgan Chase's views are universal.
The commodity inflation rate will further slow down and may reach the level of 3% annual growth rate in 2005. This has also become
It is considered that the total interval of moderate growth of interest rate in the next 12 months should be 100 basis points. this
These forecasts are based on the assumption that the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate will be in the next six months.
It will be relaxed, which will lead to a moderate appreciation of the renminbi.
Monetary growth slowed down.
From a historical perspective, China's inflation closely followed the growth of the monetary aggregate and became China.
Monetary law. Especially after the number of people in M2 reached the bottom of 200 1, in 2002-2003.
During this period, M2 achieved accelerated growth, that is, CPI-type inflation that has been increasing since the beginning of 2003.
Paved the way. In a broader sense, the growth of M2 peaked earlier this year, which means CPI.
The expansion of commodities will enter 2005. However, this model was temporarily interrupted by this year's credit tightening measures.
Since the second quarter of this year, the credit crunch has led to a rapid decline in M2 and bank loans. Real liquidity bar
A misleading indicator shows that loanable funds of similar size quickly flows out of the formal banking system, and
Enter the underground gray credit market.
The official M2 indicator once again underestimated the actual liquidity, and in an excessive year, the growth of M2 obviously exceeded.
After the nominal GDP growth, the range reached 7-8%. In the next few months, the official interest rate will rise.
It may eventually buffer the growth of money, because they bring some liquidity back to the formal banking system. but
However, in contrast to this chaos, underground credit continues.
Import cost is the main factor of inflation.
Concerns about inflationary pressure next year include changes in labor market conditions. Since 2003,
Since the end of last year, the unprecedented labor shortage has become increasingly serious, especially for export enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region.
In the industry. According to estimates, the labor shortage gap has reached 2 million, mainly in the traditional sense.
Workers from the countryside. The fear is that China will eventually face the limitation of labor supply, even in terms of technology.
The same is true for small batch work. This pressure of labor shortage is likely to lead to a continuous increase in wages in China.
Dynamic inflation.
Our view is that the recent development reflects the friction in the labor market, which is not a comprehensive labor.
The power is insufficient. In particular, due to the rising prices of agricultural products, the growth of relative income has caused the substitution of rural labor.
It is the decrease of urban labor force that increases the opportunity cost of rural labor force to work in coastal manufacturing centers. This is very
It may mean that the wages of these low-income workers need to be adjusted, which will also be related to the increase of rural income.
Improve together. However, there is no real threat from rising inflation. In fact, employees are a whole.
The growth of physical income is along with the nominal GDP, which does not mean that the rise of the overall wage level will promote it.
Inflation is on the rise.
The inflation of import cost is the most important factor considered by policy makers. Looking forward to inflation in 2005
Inflation, the main risk of its upward trend comes from the continuous rise of import costs, especially oil and raw materials.
Commodity imports, especially considering the limitations of domestic resources, are unlikely to ease in the near future. in China
In the recent monetary policy implementation report, the People's Bank of China continued to pay attention to energy-related and industrial raw material costs.
This growth shows obvious concern. In fact, although the upward pressure of the broad consumer price index is obvious
Relax, but the upward pressure of inflation brought by PPI shows no signs of slowing down. get through
According to the calculation of the People's Bank of China, the overall import price continued to rise, and the year-on-year growth rate slowed down in the third quarter.
It reached 15.5%. If it continues, this trend will create money for downstream industrial products.
The risks brought by expansion pressure are getting bigger and bigger.
gain two ends at once
Relax the fluctuation range of RMB, kill two birds with one stone. Now, inflation expectations will become neutral.
The key points of policy making in China. Because the most serious inflation threat in 2005 came from external factors,
In the inflation driven by rising import costs, according to the basic principles of economics, the most feasible way is to rise.
Value RMB. A lot of other important factors have explained that China's economy needs a more flexible exchange rate mechanism.
At this time. For example, in managing China's own business cycle, China needs to participate in the currency.
The central bank has been given more initiative in policy formulation and implementation.
Another potential benefit of a moderate appreciation of the renminbi is to increase the purchasing power of middle-class families. This will have
It helps to support the * * * sector to revise the economic growth model, and makes China more inclined to promote China through domestic consumption.
China's economic growth will become an important goal of macroeconomic policy in 2005. In this sense,
The inflationary pressure caused by import costs should be eased and policy makers will be more flexible.
The exchange rate mechanism adds weight.
CPI is the consumer price index, which is based on several statistics of a package of goods.
It is one of the indicators to measure the health of economic development reflected by the price level.
If the CPI is high, it means that the cost of living for ordinary people has increased.
There is overheating in economic development.
What does it mean that Qi Feng shares can be converted into debt? Are there any benefits? Bonds issued by Qi Feng stocks can be converted into stocks at maturity. Whether it is suitable or not depends on the price of the stock.
What does a 3% increase in CPI mean? PPI reflects the price of upstream products. If PPI rises, what will enterprises think? Trying to pass the rising cost on to consumer goods, from? Leading to an increase in CPI. But no? Yes, if you buy it? In the market, the cost is not easy to pass on, and enterprises have to sacrifice profits. Or is the country raising the price of consumer goods? Control? Like gasoline. So PPI rise can't be transmitted? Consumer price index. Simply put. Where is your shopping? The price has gone up
What impact does the CPI index rise or fall too fast have on the economy? When will CPI rise or fall, which is good for the economy? CPI is the abbreviation of consumer price index. The rapid rise of CPI will lead to the rapid rise of consumer goods prices and inflation, thus reducing people's income, purchasing power and welfare level. However, if only CPI rises, and PPI (Industrial Product Ex-factory Price Index) falls, remains unchanged or slightly rises, it will lead to an increase in producers' profits, thus prompting them to expand production and increase supply. Under the adjustment of the market, prices will drop and CPI will automatically drop.
The decline of CPI will lower the price of consumer goods, increase people's purchasing power and improve the welfare level, but in turn, it will have an adverse impact on producers, reduce their profits, dampen their enthusiasm for production and reduce supply, thus reducing the employment of workers and increasing the unemployment rate.
Generally speaking, a moderate increase in CPI is beneficial to the economy, but if it exceeds a certain level, it will have an adverse impact on the economy. For example, the CPI growth rate in China in the first half of 2008 reached 10, which would have a great negative impact on people's lives.
What do you mean by rising temperature? This is a net increase. What is the degree reached at this time?
It's a warm-blooded animal High body temperature is called fever. Why does the person have a fever? My explanation is as follows: Keywords: temperature characteristics of chemical reaction equilibrium catalyst enzyme, enzyme failure is a biocatalyst, which has catalytic characteristics, but it also has some characteristics that inorganic catalysts do not have, such as its catalytic efficiency at normal temperature and pressure.
What does the annual cpi increase in 20 14 mean? That is, the higher CPI, the higher prices, the more serious inflation, the more expensive things, and the less valuable money. After the year-on-year, its significance is to see whether the price growth rate is down or up. For example, 20 13 is 2.6%, and 20 14 is 2.6%, indicating that the price growth level is declining and the price growth rate is slowing down ~
What does cpi mean? CPI asks for help editing encyclopedia business cards.
Consumer price index (CPI) is an indicator reflecting the price changes of goods and services related to residents' lives, and is usually used as an important indicator to observe the level of inflation. CPI is a measure of the price of a fixed basket of consumer goods, which mainly reflects the price changes of goods and services paid by consumers, expressed by percentage changes. In fact, in general, CPI is a number greater than 100, that is, the price of a series of reference commodities relative to the price in its base period, rather than a change rate value. Generally speaking, when the increase of CPI & gt3% can be called inflation, it means inflation; When the CPI & gt5% increase is called serious inflation, it means serious inflation.
One of the bases. The decisive factor of mouse performance lies in the number of dots per inch that can be recognized by the decoding device inside the mouse, that is, the resolution that people usually say, in DPI or CPI. It means the maximum amount of information that the mouse can accurately locate every inch. Resolution is a standard to measure the accuracy of mouse movement, which is divided into hardware resolution and software resolution. The hardware resolution reflects the actual ability of the mouse, and the software resolution simulates a certain effect through software. Dpi is the abbreviation of dots per inch, which means pixels per inch, and it is the most commonly used resolution unit at present. Cpi is the abbreviation of count per inch, which is the standard defined by Agilent, the manufacturer of mouse core chips, meaning the sampling rate per inch. Both dpi and cpi can be used to indicate the resolution of the mouse, but dpi is a static indicator, which is more suitable for printers or scanners. Because mouse movement is a dynamic process, cpi is more suitable to represent the resolution of the mouse. If you don't play games often, or you are not a crazy game enthusiast (especially FPS first-person games), the mouse with 2000CPI is not only a waste for you, but also annoying when you don't play games. Use the mouse with the resolution of 1600CPI or 2000CPI to move gently. Will make the cursor run all over the screen-moving too fast. The so-called high CPI means that when the mouse cursor runs all over the screen, it can ensure a kind of "accuracy" and "accurate positioning", but these things are not suitable for ordinary users in other applications except for some "extreme" players. This is the personal experience of the high CPI mouse in actual use. So now many mouse manufacturers have set the option of adjusting CPI in the mouse driver. In addition to its highest resolution, there are generally 400CPI/800CPI gears to choose from. Will split
What does CPI mean? CPI, or ConsumerPriceIndex, is a price change indicator that reflects the prices of products and services related to residents' lives, and is usually used as an important indicator to observe the level of inflation. If the consumer price index rises too much, it shows that inflation has become an unstable factor in the economy, and the central bank will take the risk of tightening monetary and fiscal policies, leading to uncertain economic prospects. Therefore, the excessive rise of the index is often unpopular with the market. For example, in the past 12 months, the consumer price index rose by 2.3%, which means that compared with 12 months ago, the cost of living rose by 2.3% on average. When the cost of living goes up, the value of your money will go down. That is to say, a banknote of 100 yuan received a year ago can only buy goods and services worth 97.75 yuan today. Generally speaking, when the increase of CPI & gt3% is called inflation, it means inflation; When CPI & gt5% increases, we call it serious inflation, which means serious inflation.