Source: Earlier on Thursday, the European Central Bank lowered the main refinancing rate from 0. 15% to 0.05%, also lowered the overnight deposit rate of commercial banks in the central bank from negative 0. 1% to negative 0.2%, and lowered the marginal lending rate from 0.40% to 0.30%. In June, the central bank became the largest central bank in the world to implement negative deposit interest rate, which aims to encourage banks to lend excess funds to other financial institutions instead of depositing them in the central bank.
Impact: The unexpected easing policy of the European Central Bank made the market go crazy after the resolution and Draghi's speech. EUR/USD fell below 1.3000, which had the greatest impact for the first time in four months. On Thursday, the exchange rate hit its biggest decline since 2065,438+065,438+0.
On September 4th, the foreign exchange market situation (a few examples)
EUR/USD opened at 1.3 1488 and closed at 1.29423.
Euro against offshore RMB opened at 8.0804 and closed at 7.9540.
EUR/USD opened at 0.79870 and closed at 0.79242.
EUR/CHF opened 1.20654 and closed 1.20599.
EUR/JPY opened at 137.792 and closed at 136.232.
EUR/AUD opened 1.40655 and closed 1.34 15.
EUR/CAD opened 1.43 143 and closed 1.40726.
Interpretation: The latest economic forecast of the European Central Bank shows that it lowered its economic growth forecast from 65,438+0% to 0.9% in 2065,438+04 and from 65,438+0.7% to 65,438+0.6% in 2065,438+06. In terms of inflation expectations, the European Central Bank lowered the inflation rate of 20 14 from 0.7% to 0.6%, while maintaining the inflation rates of 20 15 1. 1% and 20 16 1.4%.
The European Central Bank unexpectedly announced a cut in the benchmark interest rate and announced more measures to stimulate the weak euro zone economy, causing investors to sell the euro heavily. When the euro depreciates, the exchange rate of the euro against other countries naturally falls. Exchange rate directly affects the import and export of international trade, such as the euro against the yen. Canon Inc, an export giant, predicts that the average exchange rate of the euro against the Japanese yen will be 135 yen in the second half of the fiscal year ending June 5438+February. The company also said that every time the euro appreciates or depreciates 1 yen, the company's operating profit in 20 14 will increase or decrease1700 million yen.
Today in September 10, the current euro against offshore RMB 7.9300, a record low of 7.8907 yesterday. The situation in other currencies is similar. It is expected that the rebound will not be strong in the short term, and it is more likely that the low consolidation will continue to explore.