20 17 national fiscal policy
While finalizing the basic trend of 20 17 prudent neutral monetary policy, the central economic work conference also clearly put forward? Fiscal policy should be more active and effective? Direction of operation. Obviously, the imagination space that fiscal policy can expand next is undoubtedly much larger; Moreover, fiscal policy focuses on the real economy and has a multiplier effect, which will make the pulling effect on the future economy more direct and intuitive.
Fiscal policy must go to the front desk.
It has been observed that in the past two years, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio four times and cut interest rates five times, but the economic growth has been in a state of decline, indicating that monetary policy has suffered from diminishing marginal benefits. In view of the huge stock of base money, the space for monetary policy to continue to play its role is quite limited. In order to promote economic growth, fiscal policy must be the top priority. The data shows that the growth rate of China's fiscal revenue has been decreasing at an average annual rate of 3.64% in the past five years, and it has decreased by 65,438+0.9 percentage points in 2065,438+065,438+0 months. This situation undoubtedly restricts the positive space for the expansion of fiscal policy, especially the budget expenditure capacity, and the strength of the policy can only shift to the path of relying on the deficit.
According to the budget bill, deficit ratio in China will be 3% in 20 16, but 3% is only the internationally recognized upper limit of deficit ratio's financial security. Judging from the wealth stock accumulated in China in the past 30 years and the moderately fluctuating economic operation ecology, even a deficit slightly higher than 3% will not pose a great risk. In 20 17, China's fiscal deficit ratio may increase by another 0.5 percentage point. The most likely choice is to increase the issuance of local bonds while issuing national bonds, that is, on the basis of increasing 1. 18 trillion yuan in 20 16 years, the incremental scale of local bonds will exceed 2 trillion yuan, and correspondingly, the scale of local bond replacement will also exceed 5 trillion yuan. This can mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments, effectively maintain the 20% growth rate of investment, especially infrastructure investment, and form a platform support for the annual economic growth target of 6.5%.
Appropriately raising deficit ratio is also a necessary support for a wider range of tax reduction and fee reduction, and tax reduction and fee reduction is also an inherent requirement for enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Follow the full push? Camp reform? After that, the most likely next step is to reduce the industrial and commercial value-added tax rate. At present, the industrial and commercial VAT rate is 17%, and the service industry VAT rate is 6%, which is significantly higher than the service industry. Although it is impossible to reduce the VAT rate in one step, there is a great possibility that it will be gradually reduced to 10% in the future. Compared with tax reduction, fee reduction has more room for imagination. According to the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, in addition to reducing the energy costs and logistics costs of enterprises, the focus is on reducing institutional transaction costs, such as various government fees, government funds and social insurance fees. 20 15? Camp reform? The tax reduction will be 200 billion yuan, and the tax reduction will be 500 billion yuan in 20 16 years. Coupled with the measures that have been initiated to reduce the social security contribution rate of enterprises and the contribution ratio of housing provident fund, it is conservatively calculated that even if tax reduction and fee reduction measures are not added in 20 17 years, the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction will reach more than 770 billion yuan.
fiscal policy
Not limited to the scope of public finance.
Of course, an active and effective fiscal policy is not limited to public finance, and it is also an important part to amplify the energy of social financing such as PPP. In this regard, while making good use of the state-level PPP guiding fund of 654.38+080 billion yuan, it will further strengthen the expected management of private capital investment. The Central Economic Work Conference specifically proposed to strengthen the construction of property rights protection system, which undoubtedly gave social capital a reassurance to participate in PPP; At the same time, it also means that as an important force to protect PPP, the legislation of PPP in 20 17 will be put on the agenda. In addition, the Ministry of Finance also explicitly prohibits local governments from issuing bonds in disguised form by PPP, and reminds private capital that contingent debts are not within the scope of local government debt repayment, which is conducive to private capital to isolate investment risks. Importantly, according to the participants, PPP projects will not stay in infrastructure areas such as municipal construction and transportation, and the openness of public services such as education, medical care and old-age care to private capital will be further improved.
The investment environment is constantly being warmed up by the policy fever, and the investment power is increasingly stimulated by the improvement of the system. If 20 16 is a year when the PPP mechanism is ready to go and dormant, then 20 17 must be a year when private capital exerts its strength and overweight. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Finance, by the end of September, there were 1047 1 PPP projects with a total investment of 12.46 trillion yuan, and the actual landing rate reached 26%. According to the report released by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, from 1 to September this year, the number of PPP warehousing projects and investment increased by 386 and 0.48 trillion yuan respectively, indicating that the demand for PPP projects is increasing. Based on this, we judge that the PPP landing scale in 20 17 will be significantly higher than that in 20 16, and it is estimated to be 2 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan. The multiplier effect of public finance is obvious.
It is necessary to allocate funds.
Take targeted steps
Due to the limited operating capacity of the budget, deficit ratio will also generate a large number of repayment costs, and private capital investment pays more attention to business returns. Therefore, as an active and effective fiscal policy, we should not only allocate funds accurately, but also show the service function to the public and clearly reflect the market-oriented income expectation. In line with this principle, the future will go further? Make up the short board? And moderately increase the supply of funds for infrastructure such as railways, airports and water conservancy, and the fiscal policy is inclined to cover urban infrastructure areas such as shantytown renovation and underground pipe gallery construction; At the same time, according to the special proposal of the Central Economic Work Conference? Deepen the structural reform of agricultural supply side? Requirements, fiscal policy will also increase investment in comprehensive management of outstanding environmental problems in rural areas and returning farmland to forests, lakes and grasslands. However, in terms of capital allocation, urban infrastructure may take the form of public finance as the traction, absorbing large-scale participation of social capital, while rural environmental governance mainly takes public finance as the main input because of unknown business expectations.
According to the data, on the basis of completing 5.8 million sets of renovation in 20 15 and 6 million sets in 20 16, the renovation of shanty towns in three years180,000 sets is in sight, and the focus of urban infrastructure construction will shift from the ground to the underground. At present, the total length of urban drainage pipes in China is about 500,000 kilometers, but the length of underground pipe gallery is less than 1 10,000 kilometers, which is not only weak in carrying capacity and risk elimination ability, but also unable to meet the needs of accelerated urbanization. According to estimates, only? Thirteenth Five-Year Plan? During this period, the total investment of underground pipe gallery construction in China will reach 400 billion yuan, and the corresponding market demand will exceed 6 trillion yuan, which is only the market pull that can be generated by the transformation of the old network for five years. Once the urban underground pipe corridors are all perfected in 10, the investment multiplication effect will be worth looking forward to. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, by 2020, the output value of China's rural environmental treatment industry will reach 200 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 20%, which will stimulate and create considerable market demand.
20 17 Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy.
17 On February 29th, the annual national financial work conference was held in Beijing. Because this meeting will deploy the financial work for 20 17 years and reveal the trend of fiscal policy in the coming year, involving the allocation of more than 20 trillion yuan of financial funds, it has attracted much attention from the market.
5438+065438+ 10, Xiao Jie, the newly appointed minister of finance, also presided over the national financial work conference for the first time, which also made the content of this conference the focus of market attention.
After reviewing the financial work in 20 16, Xiao Jie began to deploy seven tasks of financial work in 20 17.
Among them, continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and promoting the realization of the expected goal of economic growth rank first, which means that fiscal work will give priority to steady growth.
Previously, the Central Economic Work Conference had set the fiscal policy of 20 17 as? Positive? Put forward that fiscal policy should be more active and effective. The National Financial Work Conference implemented this plan, and proposed that the fiscal policy should be more active and effective, continue to implement the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, moderately expand the scale of expenditure, and promote the economic operation to remain within a reasonable range.
While the growth rate of fiscal revenue continues to decline and the intensity of tax reduction and fee reduction increases, the scale of expenditure should be moderately expanded, which reveals that fiscal deficit ratio is expected to continue to expand next year. According to the budget report at the beginning of the year, this year's fiscal deficit ratio (within the general public budget) is the highest in history of 3%. Many experts interviewed by CBN believe that deficit ratio will exceed 3% in 20 17.
Recently, there are endless calls for enterprises to pay too much taxes and fees. This meeting gave the general direction of reducing taxes and fees next year.
At this meeting, Xiao Jie put forward five main points of tax reduction and fee reduction next year: continue to implement and improve the pilot policy of camp reform and expand the tax reduction effect. Study and implement new tax reduction measures. Further clean up and standardize funds and fees, and then cancel, adjust and standardize a number of administrative fees. Publish the list of central and local charge catalogues. Implement other tax reduction and fee reduction policies that have been introduced.
Undoubtedly, the new tax reduction measures are most anticipated next year, and the regulation of government funds and fees is more critical. After this year's camp reform achieves the tax reduction target of more than 500 billion yuan, the tax reduction will be further increased next year.
In addition to reducing taxes and fees, a proactive fiscal policy also includes expenditure.
Xiao Jie said that in 20 17, the scale of expenditure will be appropriately expanded, and the central and local governments will ensure that the fiscal expenditure will not be reduced and expand the actual expenditure scale by rationally arranging revenue budgets and fully revitalizing existing funds. The increased expenditure is mainly used to ensure the expenditure needs of key areas.
The question is, what key areas will the increased expenditure be used for? The answer is the five major tasks involved in the supply-side structural reform.
The second major task of the Ministry of Finance next year is to implement the structural reform and deployment of the supply side and promote the solution of the structural imbalance between supply and demand. The first task is to support implementation? Three to one, one drop and one supplement? Key tasks (de-capacity, de-leverage, de-inventory, cost reduction, short board).
In 20 16, the Ministry of Finance set up a special fund for capacity reduction with a scale of 100 billion yuan, vigorously supported shantytown renovation and monetized resettlement, and promoted destocking. The central government's special poverty alleviation funds have also greatly increased support to make up for shortcomings.
These aspects will continue to receive strong support from the central government on 20 17.
Xiao Jie said that he would continue to support the separation and resettlement of employees and the disposal of central enterprises? Zombie enterprise? . We will implement the requirements of precise poverty alleviation, substantially increase the investment in special financial poverty alleviation funds, further improve the overall use, comprehensively promote the pilot integration of agriculture-related funds in poverty-stricken counties, and support ex situ poverty alleviation and asset income poverty alleviation.
The third major task of financial work next year is to further promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and accelerate the construction of a modern financial system.
There are many contents involved in fiscal and taxation reform, among which the most noteworthy is the tax reform. Xiao Jie said that this study will promote the reform of individual income tax combining comprehensive and classified methods.
Many experts interviewed by CBN believe that the 20 17 tax reform plan is expected to be announced. The next tax reform will reduce the tax burden of low-and middle-income people and increase the collection of high-income people.
The First Financial Reporter learned from an insider who knows about the tax reform plan that the future tax reduction plan for low-and middle-income people is mainly based on the existing basic deduction, considering adding special deduction items, such as children's education projects and housing loan projects, and it is based on families.
In addition to individual tax reform, Xiao Jie also proposed to deepen resource tax reform and expand the pilot scope of water resource tax. Implement the statutory principle of taxation and cooperate with tax legislation such as tobacco tax. Regulations on the implementation of the environmental protection tax law and the draft regulations on the management of government non-tax revenue.
This year, the water resource tax was first piloted in Hebei, and the pilot scope will be extended to other provinces next year. Tobacco tax is expected to be upgraded from regulations to laws. The environmental protection tax has been passed, and the specific details need to be clarified in the Regulations on the Implementation of Environmental Protection Tax to ensure the formal implementation of the environmental protection tax in 20 18.
In addition to the above-mentioned tax reform, the reform of the budget management system will continue to deepen, such as speeding up the revision of the implementation regulations of the budget law.
In addition, the Ministry of Finance will also promote the reform of the division of financial affairs and expenditure responsibilities between the central and local governments. Accelerate the formulation of the overall plan for the division of income between the central and local governments. Establish and improve the financial policy system to support the urbanization of agricultural transfer population. To study and put forward a plan to improve the local tax system.
The remaining four key tasks of next year's financial work conference are to adjust and optimize the expenditure structure and effectively protect the expenditure in key areas; Strengthen budget execution management to ensure the completion of annual budget tasks; Strengthen local government debt management to ensure financial sustainability; Deepen international financial cooperation and serve the overall situation of national politics, economy and diplomacy.
On the issue of local debt, Xiao Jie said that it is necessary to strengthen local government debt limit management and budget management. Properly handle existing government debts and increase the issuance of local government bonds to replace existing debts. Strengthen supervision over the local implementation of the debt management system. Intensify the investigation and accountability of illegal debt financing. We will further promote the market-oriented transformation of financing platform companies and strengthen the assessment and early warning of local debt risks.