Expert investigation method is divided into Delphi method and brainstorming method. Delphi method is also translated into Delphi method. Delphi is the location of the temple of Apollo in ancient Greek legend. In 1964, RAND Corporation of the United States first used Delphi method for technical prediction. It is an intuitive forecasting method developed on the basis of expert personal judgment and expert meeting method, especially suitable for long-term forecasting under the condition of lack of objective information or data, or technical forecasting that is difficult to be carried out by other methods.
Expert investigation method or expert evaluation method is a method to judge, evaluate and predict problems through investigation and research by taking experts as the object of information seeking and relying on experts' knowledge and experience.
Expert investigation method is also called Delphi method. An investigation method that seeks the opinions and opinions of relevant experts or authorities around a certain topic or problem. The object of this kind of investigation is limited to the expert level. The investigation was conducted for several rounds. Usually 3-5 times. Every time, the respondents were asked to answer a questionnaire with basically the same content, and they were asked to briefly state the reasons for their views. After sorting out the results of each round of survey, release them to all respondents in the next round of survey so that they can understand the opinions of other experts and the similarities and differences between their own opinions and those of most experts. This survey method was first used to predict the technological development, and later it was widely used to study political, economic, cultural and social development and many other fields.
The characteristics of expert investigation method are: ① letter inquiry. Ask for expert opinions repeatedly through communication, and the contact between investigators and respondents is realized through letters. ② Multi-directionality. The respondents are distributed in different professional fields, and they can get the opinions of experts from all sides on the same issue. ③ Anonymous. Respondents can learn the opinions of other experts through the arrangement of the survey organizer. But back to back, anonymous, don't know who the other party is. This helps them to express their independent opinions. 4 repeat. Carry out feedback iteration in a controlled way, so that scattered opinions gradually tend to be consistent, thus exerting collective wisdom. ⑤ Focus. Concentrate the opinions of all respondents by statistical method, and reflect the personal judgment of each expert as much as possible in the final collective opinion. From the above characteristics, it can be seen that the expert investigation method is more scientific and more widely used, but it takes time to exchange letters and cannot be discussed face to face. It is difficult to ask the question clearly without further explanation, and the final consensus is artificially forced to some extent. If it is used in conjunction with other investigation methods, better results can be achieved.