Chester@ Qiuyefangtan
From 20 15 to 12, the Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate of the federal funds from 0-25 basis points (one basis point =0.0 1%) to 25-50 basis points, thus officially opening a new round of interest rate hike cycle for the US dollar. It has been seven years since the Federal Reserve last lowered interest rates to 0%, and nine years since it last raised interest rates.
For property buyers and real estate investors, the most concerned issue in the interest rate hike cycle is, of course, whether the mortgage interest rate of housing loans will gradually increase with the Fed's interest rate hike, and what will be the extent and speed of the increase. This involves the formation mechanism of interest rate in the mortgage market.
For most bank loan products, the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike is immediate. Because the Federal Reserve interest rate is the cornerstone of the cost of capital in the whole market. The effect of the Fed's interest rate hike will be immediately reflected in the bank's capital cost (the risk premium of financial institutions under the cornerstone interest rate), and the bank will transfer this cost to the lender. The most extreme example is the credit card. Since credit cards have floating interest rates, the Fed's interest rate hike will be reflected in the new interest rate of credit cards on the next billing date. Other products, whether the interest rate is fixed or floating according to its terms, will also reflect this change in the form of stock or increment in the future.
However, the interest rate generation and transmission mechanism of mortgage is different from ordinary financial products.
The most typical mortgage loan in the United States is a 30-year fixed-rate loan, accounting for more than 85% of the entire mortgage market. But this 30-year fixed investment is a financial product with American characteristics. In many other countries, such as China, although there are mortgages with a term of 65,438+05-30 years, the interest rate is mostly floating, and it is adjusted according to the market interest rate every three months or half a year. The benefits of a 30-year fixed-rate loan to buyers are obvious:
_ Good affordability: Compared with other loan products, the interest rate of 30-year fixed mortgage is generally lower (the reason will be explained later). The exceptionally long repayment period also reduces the monthly repayment amount.
_ Expected stability: interest rate and repayment cash flow are fixed, and there will be no sudden jump in repayment amount and supply interruption.
_ Flexibility: There is no penalty for prepayment.
But for banks, it is a big problem to issue loans with fixed interest rates for 30 years. Banks should not only evaluate the repayment ability and default risk of lenders, but also accurately predict the inflation rate of the market in the next 30 years. If the future fixed interest rate is significantly lower than the actual inflation, banks will face negative interest rates and losses.
How difficult is it to predict inflation? In 20 10, the inflation rate in the United States was zero, but 30 years forward to 1980, the inflation rate in the United States was 15%! Now, who can predict the inflation rate in 2047?
In this way, it seems an impossible task to price a 30-year fixed loan. So how can we become the mainstream of the American mortgage market? The secret is: banks don't have to take this risk at all! They found supporters Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Housing ownership ("home ownership") has always been one of the core elements of the American dream and American lifestyle, and it is also the foundation of social stability of the American middle class. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were created to help more Americans realize this dream. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do not directly build low-rent housing or affordable housing, but create a more relaxed mortgage market. The main function of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is to buy qualified 30-year housing loans from banks, package them into mortgage-backed bonds (MBS) and sell them to secondary market investors. The so-called MBS is a bond, and its cash flow is the mortgage repayment of the homeowner.
The golden touch in this system is that Fannie and Freddie will provide guarantee for packaged mortgage loans, and this guarantee is almost equivalent to the US government guarantee. In other words: the credit ratings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are almost comparable to those of US Treasury bonds! The reason why we say "almost" is because the American government's guarantee for Fannie and Freddie is implicit. American law defines Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as government guarantee agencies (GSE). It can be said that no one in the financial market knows the true meaning of this word, but no one doubts that the government will guarantee the debt performance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. After 2008, the US Treasury Department took over the bankrupt Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and clarified this guarantee obligation.
Another important feature of the mortgage MBS market is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are open to buying qualified ("qualified") mortgages. No matter whether the lender is Zhang Si, the issuing bank is a rural credit cooperative or Citigroup, as long as they meet some basic requirements of Fannie and Freddie for loans, such as FICO score, loan-to-value ratio, upper limit of loan amount, etc., Fannie and Freddie will open for purchase, and then package them into MBS assets for auction in the secondary market. Investors in the secondary market don't need to know the lenders behind MBS at all. They just need to collect bond interest from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac regularly.
For example, mortgages from different regions, different housing types, different lenders and different loan banks are like fat pigs with different coat colors. As long as they meet the minimum standards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will buy them, make sausages and transport them to supermarkets for sale. In the end, consumers don't know or care what pigs look like. They just need to look for "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac" brand sausages.
A typical Fannie Mae MBS bond, like a food composition table, indicates all kinds of mortgage information contained in it. But generally speaking, secondary market investors will not care about these "ingredients" because they are guaranteed by GSE.
So banks don't have to worry about the inflation rate in 30 years. The mortgage they issued can be resold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac just by staying in their accounts for a few weeks, and the funds can flow back to continue issuing new loans. The purchase price of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's new loans is determined according to the recent auction of similar loans MBS (mortgage purchase price =MBS pricing-Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac profits). The prices of MBS bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are similar (slightly higher) to those of long-term US government bonds.
Therefore, the cornerstone interest rate of the housing loan market is not the federal funds rate, but the US long-term treasury bond rate. The interest rate of long-term national debt depends on the long-term inflation expectation of the market. The Fed can only influence short-term interest rates through open market operations, but cannot determine the inflation expectations of the market. Due to the intervention and guarantee of Fannie and Freddie, the transmission mechanism of mortgage interest rate is different from ordinary personal consumption and commercial loans. State guarantee smoothes market fluctuations and various differences between different buyers, forming a stable and cheap loan cost expectation.
20 15 loan interest rate table
During 20 15, the People's Bank of China frequently adjusted the interest rate of individual (RMB) loans:
1.20 15, 1, 1 until February 28th, the benchmark annual interest rate of the loan announced by the People's Bank of China is as follows: 5.6% within 6 months (inclusive); 6 months to 1 year (including 1 year) 5.6%; 1-3 years (including 3 years) 6%; 3-5 years (including 5 years) 6%; More than 5 years, 6.15%;
Two. From March 1 day to May 15, the benchmark annual interest rate of loans announced by the People's Bank of China is as follows: 5.35% within 6 months (inclusive); 6 months to 1 year (including 1 year) 5.35%; 1-3 years (including 3 years) 5.75%; 3-5 years (including 5 years) 5.75%; 5.9% for more than 5 years;
Three. From May 20 1 1 year to June 27, 20 15, the benchmark annual interest rate of the loan announced by the People's Bank of China is as follows: 5.1%within 6 months (inclusive); 6 months to 1 year (inclusive) 5. 1%; 1-3 years (including 3 years) 5.5%; 3-5 years (including 5 years) 5.5%; 5.65% for more than 5 years;
Four. From June 28th, 2065438 to August 25th, 2005, the benchmark annual interest rate of loans announced by the People's Bank of China was as follows: 4.85% within 6 months (inclusive); 6 months to 1 year (including 1 year) 4.85%; 1-3 years (including 3 years) 5.25%; 3-5 years (including 5 years) 5.25%; 5.4% for more than 5 years;
5.20 15 From 26 August to 20 15123 October, the benchmark annual interest rate of loans announced by the People's Bank of China is as follows: 4.6% within 6 months (inclusive); 6 months to 1 year (including 1 year) 4.6%; 1-3 years (including 3 years) 5%; 3-5 years (including 5 years) 5%; More than 5 years, 5.15%;
Intransitive verbs 20 15 to1October 24-12 to 31February, the benchmark annual interest rate of the loan announced by the People's Bank of China is as follows: 4.35% within 6 months (inclusive); 6 months to 1 year (including 1 year) 4.35%; 1-3 years (including 3 years) 4.75%; 3-5 years (including 5 years) 4.75%; More than 5 years, 4.9%.
15 What are the mortgage interest rates of major banks?
1. What's the interest rate for bank loans?
The bank loan interest rate is comprehensively evaluated according to the credit situation of the loan, and the loan interest rate level is determined according to the credit situation, collateral and national policy (whether it is the first suite). If all aspects are evaluated well, the mortgage interest rates implemented by different banks are different. Under the current policy, the first suite is generally calculated according to the benchmark interest rate floating 10%. After adjustment on July 7th, the interest rate over five years is 7.05%, and the floating interest rate is 7.755.
What is the interest rate of bank housing loan after 2.20 15?
From August 26th, 2005 to August 26th, 2065438, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rates of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions to further reduce the financing costs of enterprises. Among them, the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6%; The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to1.75%; The benchmark interest rates for loans and deposits of other grades and the deposit and loan interest rates for individual housing provident fund shall be adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the floating upper limit of interest rates for time deposits of more than one year (excluding one year) will be liberalized, while the floating upper limit of interest rates for demand deposits and time deposits of less than one year will remain unchanged.
3. What are the mortgage interest rates of major banks?
The mortgage interest rates of major banks are floating on the basis of the national benchmark interest rate. The benchmark interest rate is 4.35% within one year, 4.75% within one to five years and 4.9% after five years. The floating degree is as follows:
1. BOC: The first suite will rise by 20% based on the benchmark interest rate, and the second suite will rise by 20%.
2. ICBC: The first suite will rise by 20% based on the benchmark interest rate, and the second suite will rise by 20%.
3. Agricultural Bank: The first suite will rise by 15% based on the benchmark interest rate, and the second suite will rise by 20%.
4. Postal Savings Bank: The first suite rose by 20% based on the benchmark interest rate, and the second suite also rose by 20%.
5. CCB: The first suite will rise by 15% based on the benchmark interest rate, and the second suite will rise by 20%.
6. Bank of Communications: The first suite rose by 15% based on the benchmark interest rate, and the second suite rose by 20%.
What is the benchmark interest rate of 20 15?
From 20 14,165438+122, the benchmark interest rates for RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions will be lowered. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6%; The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75%, and the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rate of financial institutions was adjusted from 1. 1 times of the benchmark interest rate for deposits to 1.2 times.
20 15 bank loan interest rate is:
The loan interest rate is 5.60% within one year (including 1 year), 6.00% for one to five years (including five years) and 6. 15% for more than five years.
If individuals apply for provident fund loans, the interest rate of provident fund loans is: 4.25% for housing provident fund loans for more than five years and 3.75% for housing provident fund loans for less than five years.
The benchmark interest rate is a universal reference interest rate in the financial market, and other interest rate levels or financial asset prices can be determined according to this benchmark interest rate level. Benchmark interest rate is one of the important prerequisites for interest rate marketization. Under the condition of interest rate marketization, financiers need a universally recognized benchmark interest rate level as a reference to measure financing costs, investors calculate investment returns and management's macro-control. Therefore, in a sense, the benchmark interest rate is the core of the formation of interest rate marketization mechanism.
Among them, countries that take the interbank offered rate as the benchmark interest rate include London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), American Federal Benchmark Rate (FFR), Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate (Tibor), and European Union Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor). The countries with the repo rate as the benchmark interest rate are Germany (1W and 2W repo rates), France (1W repo rate) and Spain (10D repo rate).