1. In the process of macro-control of real estate in China, the central government's control objectives are: economic growth, price stability, full employment and balance of payments. Judging from the order of these four goals, economic growth ranks first. Therefore, the focus of the government's macro-control of real estate is on this point, that is, the level of housing prices should be adapted to economic growth.
Our government's regulation of the real estate industry from 1998 to now can be divided into three stages: the first stage (1998-before June 2003): during this period, the government's policies were preferential policies to encourage housing consumption, such as tax reduction and interest rate, which were all conducive to the development of the real estate market. 65438-0997, affected by the Asian financial crisis, China's economy was in a downturn. In order to stimulate domestic demand, the government has issued a series of macro-control policies to stimulate economic growth and strongly encouraged the development of the real estate industry. The second stage (June 2003-the first half of 2008): During this period, the real estate price in China soared. In order to prevent the bubble, the central government regulates the down payment ratio of loans and improves the down payment ratio of second homes, interest rates, taxes and other policies. The third stage (from the second half of 2008 to the present): during this period, the central government's macro-control changed from austerity to relaxation, and encouraged the purchase of houses from loan interest rates and tax rates. In the second half of 2008, the main reason for the policy shift was the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in September 2008. In order to reduce its impact on the real estate market in China, the government has implemented a series of policies and measures to encourage the purchase of houses. For example, in 20081October 22nd 10, the People's Bank of China issued a policy to lower the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans, and at the same time lower the deed tax rate to 1%, temporarily exempting stamp duty and land value-added tax.
Judging from the central government's regulation policy, its goal is to coordinate the development of real estate with economic development. When the housing price rises too fast in the economy, the government will introduce corresponding policies and measures to control the continued spread of the trend; In the early stage of the development of the real estate industry and the second half of 2008, when the real estate industry is depressed and house prices fall, the government will introduce corresponding measures to encourage the purchase of houses, with the goal of stabilizing economic development.
Second, the positive impact of moderate rise and fall of real estate prices on the economy (1) The positive impact of moderate rise of real estate prices on the economy 1. Promote the development of real estate and related industries. On the one hand, the steady rise of housing prices will drive more enterprises to invest in the real estate industry and promote the increase of supply in the real estate industry; On the other hand, because the real estate industry is an industry with strong industrial relevance, its development will drive the development of related industries. Based on the comprehensive impact on all industries, the real estate demand per 100 yuan will affect the demand of other industries by about 2 15 yuan. If the demand of real estate itself is added, the total output will be affected by 3 15 yuan. It can be seen that the moderate growth of the real estate industry has played a booster role in a country's economic development.
2. Promote employment. As a construction department, the real estate industry is a labor-intensive industry, which needs a large number of construction workers, and the source of construction workers is mainly farmers. The prosperity of the real estate industry will solve the employment problem of a large number of rural population. According to the survey, there are 6000 migrant workers in SOHO's largest project. 3. Promote the recovery of bank accounts. In the period of steady increase in real estate prices, the assets lent by banks will be safer. This mainly includes two aspects: first, the loan interest of real estate developers; The second is the interest on individual housing loans. Because of the continuous appreciation of mortgage assets and rapid liquidity, banks' concerns about bad debts have weakened.
(B) the positive impact of moderate decline in real estate prices on the economy 1. Promote domestic demand. If the real estate price falls moderately and the proportion of house price in people's consumption expenditure is appropriate (it can be controlled according to the internationally accepted ratio of house price to income), more expenditure will be spent on buying other consumer goods, such as tourism, automobiles, home appliances, catering and so on. The increase in profits of these manufacturers will, on the one hand, increase the wage income of employees and increase their consumption; On the other hand, it will increase the investment of these industries in technological innovation, upgrade the industry and optimize the industrial structure. 2. Improve the welfare of buyers. On the one hand, a moderate decline in housing prices will give more people the opportunity to improve their living conditions at a lower cost. Improve the living conditions of buyers, so that ineffective demand without ability to pay becomes effective demand; On the other hand, a moderate decline will also promote the increase of real estate transaction volume.
Third, the negative impact of large fluctuations in real estate prices on the economy (A) the negative impact of excessive real estate prices on the economy
1. resulting in insufficient domestic demand. At present, the biggest problem of China's economy is insufficient domestic demand, and the rising real estate prices and high housing prices are the important factors that cause insufficient domestic demand. In order to accumulate the down payment for buying a house, some families need to cut other consumption expenses. There is no extra money for other consumption, which has a great negative impact on China's economy.
2. Damage the development of the real economy. The impact of the rapid rise in real estate prices on the real economy can be seen from two aspects: first, high housing prices make domestic demand insufficient, reducing the consumption demand for other industries, thus hindering the development of the real economy such as manufacturing; Second, the excess profits brought by high housing prices attract capital resources that could have been invested in manufacturing. A large amount of social capital and resources have been absorbed into the real estate market, thus inhibiting the development of the real economy such as manufacturing. In recent years, some large enterprises in China have shrunk their investment in manufacturing and invested in the real estate market, which has adversely affected the real economy.
3. Causing asset bubbles. Real estate developers and buyers have systematic expectations for the future rise of real estate prices, and then adopt group speculation, which makes the basic value of real estate prices determined by the market base rise continuously. On the one hand, with the rise of housing prices, the participation of real estate speculators and the increase of speculation, the real estate bubble will be triggered, which makes the real estate price seriously deviate from the actual value. On the other hand, the industrial relevance of real estate is high. The continuous rise of real estate prices will not only overheat the real estate industry, but also lead to the overheating of the overall economy through the demand for related industries and the supply to related industries in the future.
(B) the negative impact of high real estate prices on the economy 1. Impact on the banking system. About 80% of China's land acquisition and real estate development funds come from bank loans, and individuals buy houses through mortgage loans, accounting for 90% of all purchases. Regarding the relationship between falling house prices and the safety of the banking system, the chairman of China Construction Bank said in public in 2008: When house prices fall by 10%, it will not affect our bank; When the house price drops by 20%, it will have a certain negative impact; If it drops to more than 30% now, it will have a great negative impact. Therefore, in the process of rising house prices, the financial risks of banks are also increasing. Once house prices fall excessively, the value of collateral will be greatly reduced, and the reality of oversupply of real estate will make collateral lack liquidity, and bad debts and bad debts of banks will increase; Banks will fall into the dilemma of capital flow because of a large number of defaults by customers.
2. The real estate industry has been impacted, which has affected the housing supply. The government regards real estate developers as the economic subject of market economy, and its role is to supervise and guide their market behavior. Although some developers have various problems in the real estate development process. However, the government will not take extreme administrative actions to curb its development, but introduce some policies to guide its healthy development. Therefore, the excessive decline in real estate prices may lead to the closure and bankruptcy of real estate developers with insufficient funds, causing shocks in the real estate market, thus reducing the supply of housing.
3. Affect the development of other related industries. The real estate industry has the characteristics of long industrial chain and obvious driving effect, and its price decline will have a great impact on other industries. First, when the real estate developed well in the early stage and the demand of related industries was great, these industries increased their investment in fixed assets to meet the demand. Once tightened, they will have overcapacity. Second, workers in these industries are in danger of losing their jobs. Once the real estate industry shrinks and the number of unemployed people increases sharply, it will bring pressure to society and cause social problems.
4. Affect economic growth. Since 2000, China's real estate industry has entered a prosperous stage from recovery to initial development and rapid development, and the development speed is close to twice the average economic growth rate. According to the research of relevant scholars, from 1997-2005, the total contribution rate of real estate development investment to GDP growth reached 22.49% on average. In the average GDP growth of 8.94%, the contribution rate of real estate development investment reached 2.03% on average. In this case, the decline in real estate prices will cause fluctuations in GDP.
Four. Conclusion and Countermeasures How to effectively regulate the real estate industry and make it coordinate with the overall macroeconomic development is a complex decision-making process. In view of this situation, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:
1. Increase the construction of low-rent housing and affordable housing. For low-income workers, the government provides low-rent housing and affordable housing to ensure the housing needs of this vulnerable group. The development, distribution and adjustment of commercial housing can be carried out through the market, and the balance between supply and demand of middle and high-income housing can be achieved through competition mechanism and price adjustment. The regulation of commercial housing prices is mainly carried out by the competent government departments through the role of referees. On the one hand, the government should formulate rules and conscientiously implement them, and strictly strengthen the examination and management of real estate; On the other hand, we should pay attention to standardize the development of affordable housing, gradually solve the housing problem of low-income families, and formulate supporting policies for renting affordable housing.
2. Standardize the commercial credit of real estate. The relationship between real estate and banks in China is very close, and most of its funds are obtained through banks. This is mainly for real estate developers and property buyers to regulate two different objects. Real estate development enterprises should strictly manage commercial real estate credit, investigate and evaluate their credit records, repayment ability and willingness to repay, and prevent unqualified developers from kidnapping banks. For the loan to buy a house, it is necessary to strictly review its repayment ability. If it does not have repayment ability, it will not be loaned.
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