Speaker: 10893 17 1
The domestic lead and zinc industry should focus on controlling the total amount, eliminating backwardness, technological transformation and enterprise restructuring, and promote industrial adjustment and revitalization.
In September 2008, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States broke out, which had a serious impact on the world lead and zinc industry. As a result, the price of products plummeted, the demand was weak, the financing of enterprises was difficult, and some enterprises' capital chains were in danger of breaking, which posed an unprecedented challenge to the world lead and zinc industry and would have a far-reaching impact on its future development. The financial crisis has also provided a good opportunity for China to solve the deep-seated problems in industrial development. Accelerating structural adjustment and promoting industrial upgrading is an important way to realize the sustained and healthy development of lead and zinc industry in China.
The financial crisis has seriously affected the world lead and zinc industry.
1. Lead and zinc prices fell sharply. Affected by the economic crisis, the price of lead continued to fall. In June, 2008 165438+ 10, the domestic and international prices hit low points below 8,000 yuan/ton and below 900 dollars/ton respectively, which was about 70% lower than the previous high point. Zinc prices fell sharply, hitting a record low. In 2008, the lowest zinc price of LME in March fell by 75% from the high point, and the main contract price of SHFE fell by 76%.
The financial crisis has severely hit the real economy. As a result, the market demand is extremely weak, and global lead and zinc enterprises have cut production and stopped production on a large scale. According to statistics, by the first quarter of 2009, except China, the zinc production capacity of mines that have stopped production worldwide was 6.5438+0.2 million tons, accounting for 654.38+0.5% of the total production capacity. The production capacity of zinc smelting stopped 165438+ 10,000 tons, accounting for about14% of the total production capacity; The lead production capacity of discontinued mines is 300,000 tons, accounting for about 20% of the total production capacity. The lead smelting capacity of the discontinued mine is 654.38+10,000 tons. Even if so many production capacity were closed, in the first quarter of 2009, there was still a surplus of 6,543,800 tons in the foreign zinc market. In the same period, the domestic lead-zinc mine has an unused capacity of 6.5438+0.2 million tons, and the smelter has an unused capacity of 840,000 tons.
3. The business situation of lead and zinc industrial enterprises at home and abroad has deteriorated sharply. Affected by the financial crisis, the operating conditions of lead and zinc industrial enterprises at home and abroad have deteriorated sharply, with profits falling and losses increasing. In 2008, Tektronix Canada, the world's largest producer of lead and zinc raw materials, achieved a 59% year-on-year decrease in profits, reaching only $654.38+06 billion, of which the profit from zinc business decreased from $654.38+02 billion in 2007 to $306.5438+00 million. Due to the plummeting price of lead and zinc, the assets of OZ Minerals Inc, Australia, the second largest zinc producer in the world, have shrunk severely, making it difficult to repay the debt of $560 million. Due to the low price of zinc, in the fourth quarter of 2008, Swiss Glencore Company lost $43 million in zinc mines in Peru, while its net income in the same period of 2007 was $6,543.8+$008,000. Under the impact of the financial crisis, the profitability of domestic lead and zinc enterprises has also dropped significantly. According to statistics, in 2008, 15 lead and zinc enterprises linked by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association realized a profit of 840 million yuan, down by 9 1.05% year-on-year, among which 14 enterprise's profit dropped significantly. In the fourth quarter 15, the lead and zinc enterprises lost 2.67 billion yuan after breakeven, including 6.67 billion yuan. From June 5438 to February 2008, 15 lead and zinc enterprises contacted by the association lost10.37 billion yuan.
The financial crisis has not changed the development trend of the world lead and zinc industry.
Since the beginning of the new century, with the rapid economic development of China, India and other countries, the consumption pattern of lead and zinc products in the world has undergone profound changes, and developing countries such as China and India have become the main forces to promote the growth of global lead and zinc consumption. Although there are more lead-zinc deposits in China and India, the rapid growth of demand has exceeded the local resource guarantee capacity, making them the largest import areas of lead and zinc products in the world. Developed countries have completed the industrialization process, and the demand growth of lead and zinc products is very limited. In particular, the production process of lead and zinc (especially smelting process) consumes energy and will have an impact on the ecological environment. Therefore, although the United States, Canada, Australia and other developed countries are rich in lead and zinc resources, they are cautious about developing lead and zinc smelting, but instead encourage the export of mineral raw materials and implement the strategy of transferring lead and zinc smelting to developing countries.
The outbreak of the financial crisis has not changed the development trend of the world lead and zinc industry, but it provides a good opportunity for the strategic reorganization of the global lead and zinc industry, which will inevitably promote the changes in the industrial distribution pattern. It is expected that lead and zinc enterprises in China, India and other developing countries will seize this historic opportunity, actively participate in the strategic restructuring of the world lead and zinc industry, and further occupy the leading position in the industry. At present, enterprises in developing countries such as China are participating in the combination, merger and reorganization of lead and zinc enterprises in developed countries, which will not only transfer lead and zinc smelting production to developing countries, but also realize the transfer of industrial resource control and capital control to developing countries. Some famous lead and zinc production enterprises in developed countries will be merged and reorganized by enterprises in developing countries, thus changing the distribution pattern of the world lead and zinc industry at a higher level.
Main problems restricting the development of lead and zinc industry in China
The financial crisis has had a strong impact on the production and operation of lead and zinc industry in China, and brought great challenges to the development of lead and zinc industry in China. In addition to external shocks, it is also closely related to the structural contradictions and unreasonable development mode of China's lead and zinc industry. It is the exposure of the accumulated contradictions in the industry for many years, and it also highlights some structural and institutional deep-seated contradictions in China's lead and zinc industry.
1. The shortage of resources has seriously affected the sustainable development of lead and zinc industry. China is a big country in lead and zinc resources, and it is also a big country in lead and zinc production and consumption, but the main characteristics of mineral resources are: less large mines, more small mines, less rich mines and more poor mines. By 2007, the static guarantee period of lead-zinc mine production is only 12 years and 14 years respectively. Although the development of mines has increased in recent years, due to geographical restrictions, management system, investment scale and degree of resource exploration, the phenomenon of many small lead-zinc mines has not been greatly changed, resulting in a tight supply of lead and zinc resources in China. In 2008, the raw material guarantee of lead and zinc was only 60% and 75% respectively.
In recent years, smelting enterprises have expanded their scale mainly by extension, and the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials in most large and medium-sized smelting enterprises is less than 30%; Some newly-built smelting enterprises also ignore the requirement that the guarantee rate of their own raw materials should reach 30%. The shortage of domestic concentrate supply leads to indiscriminate mining and digging in mines, and the vicious competition of imported raw materials leads to continuous price increase. The problem of smelting enterprises competing for resources is more prominent. The shortage of resources restricts the sustainable and healthy development of lead and zinc industry in China and affects the process of industrial structure adjustment.
2. The structural contradictions are prominent, and the proportion of key enterprises integrating mining, dressing and metallurgy is low. At present, China's lead and zinc smelting capacity has exceeded the market demand and mineral capacity. This structural contradiction not only makes the smelting capacity insufficient, but also makes the profits of the industry transfer excessively to the mining and dressing industry when the price is high. It is difficult to distribute the interests of mining and smelting enterprises reasonably, which makes the proportion of raw materials in smelting cost rise continuously. Most of the backbone enterprises in China's lead and zinc industry are independent smelters, and the guarantee of their own raw materials is not high. According to statistics, among the five domestic enterprises with lead and zinc output exceeding 300,000 tons, only two enterprises have their own raw materials guaranteed to be around 50%, while the other three enterprises have their own raw materials guaranteed to be below 20%, which requires a large number of outsourced raw materials. The change of raw materials in the market directly affects the economic benefits of enterprises. In addition, the lack of comprehensive mining companies as the backbone of industrial development is also an important factor leading to unreasonable domestic lead and zinc industrial structure and blind expansion of smelting capacity.
3. Overall, the industry concentration is low and the competitiveness of enterprises is not strong. China's lead and zinc enterprises are numerous, scattered and limited in scale. In 200 1 year, the output of the national 10 top lead and zinc enterprises accounted for 52% and 64% of the national output respectively, and decreased to 37.5% and 45.5% in 2008. The rapid growth of lead and zinc industry in recent years is only a simple amplification of the number and output of independent mining and smelting enterprises, and there is still a lack of large-scale mining and smelting enterprises with international competitiveness. There is still a certain gap between the national requirement that the output of smelting enterprises reach 60% of the total output before 20 10.
4. The capability of independent innovation is insufficient, and the proportion of advanced technology and equipment needs to be improved. The level of lead smelting technology and technical equipment is not high, and the proportion of advanced lead smelting technology represented by oxygen-enriched bottom blowing is less than 30%, while the revitalization plan requires 20 1 1 to be 70%; Backward sintering machines with high energy consumption and heavy pollution also account for a certain proportion. Zinc smelting also has a certain backward production capacity, using small vertical pot roasting and simple condensation facilities to collect dust.
5. The problem of blind investment in smelting industry is serious, and there is still a gap between energy saving and emission reduction indicators and requirements. In recent ten years, due to the large price fluctuation of lead and zinc products and the increasing environmental protection requirements, foreign lead and zinc enterprises have reduced or transferred some smelting capacity through mergers and acquisitions. The rapid economic development in China, especially the rapid growth of steel and automobile industries, has increased the demand for lead and zinc products. From 2004 to 2007, the price of lead and zinc continued to rise, which led to the rapid growth of investment in lead and zinc industry in China. In addition to large enterprises adopting advanced technology and equipment to increase production capacity, some small smelting enterprises still reduce investment costs by reducing investment in environmental protection in exchange for economic benefits of enterprises.
Cause analysis of structural problems of lead and zinc industry in China
In the new century, China has stepped into the track of rapid development. The original motive force to promote the rapid growth of industrialization in China and the basic factor to promote the rapid development of lead and zinc industry are the role of the expanding middle-income groups in China with the improvement of per capita income level. The upgrading of consumption, the change of consumption preference of middle-income groups and the continuous expansion of the boundaries of this group determine the increasing concentration of market consumption power. The characteristic consumption preference of middle-income groups focuses on the purchase of commercial housing, family cars, high-tech electronic products, and some service products such as tourism, education and medical care. The direct demand for products in these fields has stimulated the direct expansion of heavy chemical industry, including lead and zinc products, through the role of industrial correlation effect. Combined with the comprehensive effect of the rising environment of economic cycle, China's lead industry has a high growth rate and a high investment formation rate.
Driven by strong market demand and a new round of metal bull market price surge, the investment enthusiasm of lead and zinc industry in China is high. In order to expand market share, the original lead-zinc smelting enterprises have accelerated the implementation of transformation projects aimed at increasing production capacity; Stimulated by rising prices and optimistic market expectations, some investors focus on building smelting projects regardless of external conditions such as resources and environment. Stimulated by high mineral prices, on the one hand, mining enterprises accelerate investment and expand production capacity, and the joint power with smelting enterprises is insufficient; On the other hand, the high profits of mines have intensified the investment behavior of "excessive entry". Due to the large number of small lead-zinc mines in China, a large number of small enterprises enter, lack of reasonable resource development and utilization planning, and serious indiscriminate mining and excavation, resulting in great waste of resources and harm to the environment; In some areas with resources, local protectionism is serious, one-sided understanding of resource advantages into economic advantages, ignoring the objective requirements of rational flow of production factors, blind investment and repeated construction, resulting in the convergence of regional industrial structures.
High investment has brought high growth, but the quality of growth has not improved significantly, and the extensive development model has led to the imbalance of industrial structure. The continuous and rapid growth of investment in lead and zinc smelting has led to the rapid expansion of smelting capacity in a short period of time, the supply of smelting capacity exceeds demand and the idle rate of smelting capacity is high; The mine foundation is weak and the supply of lead-zinc resources is insufficient. Although the domestic mining investment continues to increase substantially and the total supply of mines increases, it still cannot meet the smelting demand, especially there are no new large mining companies to match the investment; The rapid growth and large-scale smelting capacity make the scale structure mismatch of mine production enterprises more prominent, and the control ability of smelting enterprises on raw materials is still very low. The pattern of concentrate supply mainly in a large number of small units has not changed, and a considerable part of backward production capacity has not been eliminated; The optimization of enterprise organizational structure and industrial layout structure is progressing slowly, and there is a lack of elimination and concentration mechanism based on mergers and acquisitions.
Discussion on structural adjustment mode of lead and zinc industry in China
For a long time, China's lead and zinc industry has always adopted an extensive development model characterized by a large consumption of resources, which has a high dependence on mineral resources and low resource efficiency. According to the situation of lead-zinc resources in China, the domestic demand for lead-zinc raw materials cannot be completely solved for a long time. China's lead and zinc industry must change its development mode, abandon the development mode of simply pursuing smelting output, break the geographical restrictions of administrative divisions, implement the strategy of large enterprises and large groups, vigorously promote joint reorganization, make full use of domestic and foreign resources, focus on improving resource utilization efficiency, and continuously promote structural optimization and industrial upgrading by relying on scientific and technological progress.
1. The focus of industrial restructuring is to adjust the allocation of resources within the industry. By adjusting the allocation of resources in the industry, we can realize the connotative development model and form an oligopoly pattern or monopoly competition pattern in the market structure. One of the main reasons for the poor economic benefits of enterprises in China's lead industry is excessive competition, which has not formed a market structure similar to oligopoly or monopoly competition in developed countries. By adjusting the allocation of resources in the industry, a monopoly competition pattern of "resources are concentrated in large enterprises, market share is concentrated in large enterprises, and interests are concentrated in brand enterprises" is formed, which not only contributes to the growth of giant enterprises in China's lead and zinc industry, but also forms an orderly structure of industry competition.
By adjusting the allocation of resources in the industry, an enterprise cluster with prominent main business, high market share and strong competitiveness will be formed. Focusing on the adjustment of resource allocation within the industry, taking merger and reorganization as the main expansion means and integrating the relationship between enterprises within mining, dressing and metallurgy, the result will inevitably be an industry giant with outstanding main business and strong competitiveness.
By adjusting the resource allocation within the industry, the cost of structural adjustment can be minimized. Any structural adjustment must consider the adjustment cost. When structural adjustment occurs between industries, this cost is manifested in at least two aspects: first, the precipitation cost of special equipment and assets, such as the cost of scrapping and modification and the cost of new investment; The second is the friction cost of labor adjustment, such as the individual cost and social cost of unemployment, resettlement, finding a new job and education and training caused by labor transfer. Obviously, when there is structural adjustment within the industry, this cost can be minimized.
2. The adjustment of industrial structure should adapt to the globalization of industrial transfer and industrial upgrading. The non-ferrous metal industry in China is the earliest industry in line with international standards. Under the trend of economic globalization, China's lead and zinc industry system has gradually penetrated into the global scope, and the industrial competitive advantage no longer depends solely on the economic strength of China's industry, but on the transnational association and interaction of China's lead and zinc industry to some extent. China's lead and zinc downstream industry has a competitive advantage in the international market, which is embodied in the fact that lead and zinc smelting output and consumption rank first in the world, which is not only conducive to the development of China's lead and zinc upstream industry, but also conducive to the establishment and maintenance of China's lead and zinc industrial chain international competitive advantage. This enables China's lead and zinc industry to continuously break through the narrow domestic market and resource constraints and make strategic choices for the world market, thus realizing the optimization of global resource allocation and promoting the optimization and upgrading of China's lead and zinc industrial structure. The globalization of industrial upgrading also provides an important opportunity for China's lead and zinc industry upgrading, which enables China's lead and zinc industry to gain valuable global lead and zinc resources on the basis of giving full play to its comparative advantages, and to form an international business enterprise with strong competitiveness under the background of industrial upgrading globalization.
3. The adjustment of industrial structure should pay attention to the integration of industrial economy. The main content and direction of industrial upgrading is to realize industrial integration, that is, on the basis of traditional industries, to transform traditional industries with high-tech industries, especially information industry technology, so that the profit model, market demand, product performance, production organization mode and resource consumption of traditional industries will be fundamentally changed, and its growth mode will be more in line with the requirements of connotative development and sustainable development. There is a certain correlation between lead industry and information industry. Through the integration with information technology industry, China's industry will change from low-tech level to high-tech level, from low added value to high added value, and finally complete the process of industrial structure transformation and upgrading.
Policy Suggestions on Structural Adjustment of Lead and Zinc Industry in China
The financial crisis provides us with a good opportunity to solve the problems left over from past development. The domestic lead and zinc industry must face up to the structural contradictions in the industry and focus on adjusting the industrial structure and promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure; We should focus on controlling the total amount, eliminating backwardness, technological transformation and enterprise restructuring, and promote industrial adjustment and revitalization.
1. In line with the principle of meeting domestic demand, control the total amount, adjust the stock and eliminate backwardness. Strengthen the total control, in principle, we will not relocate lead-zinc smelters, and focus on encouraging qualified and powerful enterprises to develop through asset reorganization, merger and technological transformation, so as to improve the utilization rate of smelting capacity and meet domestic demand. Pay close attention to the implementation of the non-ferrous metal industry adjustment and revitalization plan, and eliminate backward lead production capacity of 600,000 tons and zinc production capacity of 400,000 tons in 2009. In 20 10, the lead production capacity will be controlled at 4 million tons, and the zinc production capacity will be controlled at 5 million tons.
The main feature of lead resources in China is that there are many small and medium-sized mines. According to the requirements of economic laws and specialized division of labor, large and medium-sized mines will be reorganized and the strategy of large groups will be implemented. By means of merger, association and equity participation, we will promote the reorganization of existing assets, improve production concentration, extend the industrial chain and improve economies of scale. For legal small mines, we should guide the way of intensive and large-scale operation.
Resolutely eliminate backward production capacity, rectify lead and zinc smelting enterprises whose flue gas emissions are not up to standard within a time limit, and resolutely close factories and mines that waste resources, cause serious pollution and do not have safety conditions according to law; Eliminate backward, scattered and small-scale mine production and control unreasonable mineral development.
It is necessary to establish and improve the exit mechanism of backward production capacity. Starting with adjusting the industrial layout and optimizing the allocation of resources, we will gradually establish and improve the exit mechanism and financial compensation mechanism for backward production capacity, increase the support of structural adjustment policies, improve the industrial level and enhance competitiveness.
Promote the use of advanced technology to develop lead recovery, support the development of large-scale and standardized lead recovery enterprises, prohibit the dismantling of waste lead and zinc that seriously pollute the environment and develop indigenous lead recovery and smelting.
2. Promote industrial strategic restructuring and vigorously develop large-scale integrated enterprises. The key to the structural adjustment of lead and zinc industry in China is to break the regional and national boundaries, accelerate the optimal allocation of resources, and form a new pattern of intensive development of lead and zinc industry. Encourage large enterprises to unite, complement each other's advantages, merge and reorganize small enterprises, improve industrial concentration, and build a number of internationally competitive large-scale lead enterprise groups integrating mining development, smelting and processing.
It is suggested that the relevant departments of the state give preferential treatment to the dominant enterprises in terms of technological innovation, transformation, investment and financing environment and other related policies, so as to make them become real market players and core enterprises with international competitiveness.
3. Adjust the structure of resource utilization and accelerate the development and utilization of overseas resources. China's lead and zinc raw materials are highly dependent on foreign countries. We should learn from the successful experience of multinational companies in using overseas resources. First, strengthen the strength of enterprises and obtain funds through joint ventures, listing financing, etc., and then obtain overseas resources according to different situations. At present, most of the mineral resources have been carved up by multinational companies, so we should take advantage of the great attraction of the domestic market potential, actively cooperate with multinational companies, develop and utilize foreign mineral resources through various ways such as equity participation, and obtain and improve the proportion of signing long-term supply contracts with foreign manufacturers; Actively invest in exploration and mining rights of overseas resources by means of risk exploration and bidding, and explore, develop and utilize overseas resources.
The state should make a unified plan for the development of overseas resources in macro-planning, and give support in enterprise restructuring, listing at home and abroad, information collection and exchange, foreign aid capital investment, product import and export policies, etc. Set up special funds for overseas resource exploration, and give financial support in various ways such as subsidies and preferential loans to solve the large amount of resources needed for China's current rapid development and realize sustainable development.
4. Strictly implement the access conditions of lead and zinc industry to promote the healthy development of the industry. It is suggested that specific management rules should be issued according to the access conditions of lead and zinc industry, so as to standardize industrial investment behavior, promote industrial structure adjustment and optimization, promote industrial technology progress, improve the comprehensive utilization level of the industry, strengthen environmental protection, help the survival of the fittest and guide the healthy development of lead and zinc industry. To implement dynamic management of enterprises with access, it is necessary to further improve the access threshold of recycled lead industry, and the state's support policies for industrial development should be tilted towards enterprises that meet the access conditions. Give full play to the coordination and supervision role of trade associations.
5. Increase support for technological progress and promote industrial upgrading. Establish a technological innovation system with enterprises as the main body, market as the guidance and Industry-University-Research as the combination, integrate various resources, and comprehensively enhance the independent innovation capability of enterprises.
It is necessary to carry out joint research on scientific research, design, equipment manufacturing, construction and production of key technologies that have an important impact on the development of lead and zinc industry. The state should ensure that funds and talents are included in joint research projects.
It is necessary to further improve the oxygen low-blowing technology with independent intellectual property rights, develop the direct reduction process of liquid high-lead slag, digest and absorb the innovative oxygen top-blowing lead smelting technology, actively demonstrate the introduction of Kifset lead smelting method, develop continuous lead smelting and flash one-step short-flow lead smelting technology, actively promote the vertical die casting technology of lead electrolysis and large-plate electrolysis technology, vigorously promote the wet zinc smelting technology of atmospheric pressure leaching and oxygen pressure leaching, and comprehensively improve the level of lead and zinc smelting technology and equipment in China.
It is necessary to increase support for scientific and technological projects for environmental transformation of lead-zinc mines and smelting enterprises, and implement tax reduction and exemption policies for emerging industries and products formed by comprehensive utilization of resources and waste residue, waste water and waste gas treatment technologies.
Actively support lead and zinc industrial enterprises with technical development ability, take the road of specialized production, develop distinctive lead and zinc deep-processed products, meet the domestic market demand, and enhance the competitive advantage in the international market.
6. Vigorously develop circular economy and improve the level of comprehensive utilization of resources. Support lead-zinc mine to make rational use of low-grade ore, refractory complex ore, tailings and waste residue through technological innovation, maximize the use of lead and zinc resources and reduce waste discharge. Improve the comprehensive utilization level of lead-zinc smelting tail gas and waste heat and reduce energy consumption; Improve the recycling rate of water resources; Expand the application scope of solid waste such as tailings and smelting waste residue, and gradually realize "zero discharge" of lead-zinc mine and smelting production.
Source: China Nonferrous Metals.