So now that the property market is declining rapidly, the economic development is improving and the transaction volume is stabilizing, there is naturally no need to implement such a harsh plan for a long time. Although some cities lowered the interest rate of the first suite, they all raised it too much in the early stage. For example, the interest rate of the first suite rose by 40%, and now the downward adjustment of 10% is equivalent to the benchmark interest rate rising by 30%. Therefore, the down payment ratio may not change significantly before the interest rate is generally greatly lowered.
Because the current down payment ratio can only be increased to new houses, and it is basically adjusted from 20% to 30%, and 40% is very small. Second-hand houses cannot effectively control the down payment ratio, so the number of people who increase the down payment ratio limit is limited. Once it is lowered, it is impossible for 30% to drop to 2.5%, but it will return to normal directly. Then it will take a long time to observe the market reaction to gradually relax the difficulty of loans and relax the restrictions on purchases and sales. If it is revived soon, the down payment ratio will definitely not fall. If the market continues to be depressed after the purchase restriction and interest rate appear, then the down payment ratio callback will be a high probability event. It's just that this transition period will take a long time. It will take about two years from this year, which means that most cities that increase the down payment ratio in advance will not return to normal until 2020 at the earliest.