First, the direct loss of GDP
According to the data of Wuhan's GDP of 335.748 billion yuan in the first quarter of 20 19, it will be affected by the epidemic in 2020. The economic loss in the first quarter was at least 1000 billion from the closure of Wuhan station on October 23rd to the official unblocking on April 8th.
The reason why we can definitely lose hundreds of billions is because the tertiary industry, which is mainly composed of transportation, retail, accommodation and catering, real estate, leasing, culture, sports and entertainment, has suffered great losses this time. The tertiary industry accounts for more than half of Wuhan's GDP, accounting for 55.5% according to the data of 20 19, and it is still increasing year by year in recent years.
Over the years, Wuhan has almost always maintained a growth rate higher than the national average. With reference to the figure of 8.4% increase in 20 19 compared with the same period in 20 18, we have reason to believe that the growth rate of Wuhan must be close to or even slightly higher than this figure without the impact of the epidemic. We have always been conservative. According to the growth rate of 7%, Wuhan's GDP in the first quarter was 335.748 billion yuan.
Second, the impact on SMEs.
China's small and medium-sized enterprises provide 80% employment in the whole society, but their wind resistance is very low. Because the city was closed by the epidemic, air transport, railway transport, catering and entertainment industries were seriously damaged. According to statistics, during the seven-day Spring Festival holiday alone, the box office loss in China was as high as 7 billion, and the losses in the catering, retail and tourism markets reached trillions.
These points are even more obvious in Wuhan, where the epidemic is the most serious. Some large-scale enterprises may be able to rely on book funds and bank loans for a period of time, but for small and medium-sized enterprises, it is likely to mean bankruptcy, because they can't rely on banks like large enterprises, and their own capital chains are very fragile, so it is difficult to survive this.
For example, at the beginning of the epidemic, some poultry farming enterprises in Hubei, such as Wuhan, were very anxious. Because all the live poultry markets are closed, there is nowhere to sell the slaughtered poultry, the hatched chickens can't be sold or handed over, and the eggs in stock can't be shipped. In desperation, many businesses have to deal with the backlog of products harmlessly. Similar examples have occurred in many small enterprises, which is also the reason for many labor disputes after the outbreak. Enterprises can't operate, and if they have no money, they can't pay wages naturally.
Third, the lag caused to the future development.
In the just-concluded 20 19 year, Wuhan won the title and honor of "Top Ten in National Business Environment Assessment" and "No.1 in Midwest" in the competition of major cities in China, and these activities, which are crucial for future development, were all affected by the epidemic. For example, the Second World Health Expo (the extension time is to be determined), and there are many similar activities.
For another example, the Wuhan municipal government originally put forward the plan beginning with 2020 1 in the development plan of the municipal government. Buy in Wuhan? Famous snacks cultivate 500 new chain stores and build food brands such as Wuhan snack street. But the reality is that, affected by the epidemic, the catering industry, which had a good business, was on the verge of bankruptcy!
However, crises often contain hope. From the outbreak of the epidemic to the closure of the city, from Wuhan to Hubei and then to the whole country, China fought a beautiful battle against the pneumonia epidemic in the new museum, controlled the epidemic with the most efficient speed and looked around the world. This is unique to me, which is worthy of every China person's pride, but at the same time, we can see from the above data that the cities and people including Wuhan have paid a huge price, but we have reason to believe that the heroic people of Wuhan will definitely rise.
Bloom is warm in spring, and everything is revived. Wuhan will have a better tomorrow.