However, we predict that mortgage interest rates in most cities will be lowered in the short term for the following reasons:
1. The file name is "Decreasing the lower limit of the interest rate of the first home loan in some cities in stages", and the meaning is already obvious, that is, LPR minus 20 basis points is not the lower limit, and the lower limit may be lower.
2. Following the hype, after the introduction of the policy, some city governments responded positively and made corresponding adjustments, including adjusting the lower limit of mortgage interest rate from LPR minus 35 basis points to LPR minus 60 basis points, that is, the mortgage interest rate of the first home dropped to 3.7%-3.95%.
3. In the document released on the same day, it was clearly pointed out that with the increase of assets such as bonds, foreign exchange and equity, the proportion of loans in the total assets of banks tends to decline, and the deposits and losses in China's banking system generally show an expanding trend. In order to narrow the gap between deposits and loans, promoting loans is the first priority, and lowering interest rates is the most direct and effective way. However, it does not rule out that after releasing the policy "shackles", it will make room for the rise of mortgage interest rates next year.
4. The news was actually released by the central bank on September 29th this year. The meaning is clear: the lower limit of the interest rate of the first home loan newly issued locally can be independently maintained, lowered or cancelled.
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