Since the implementation of the "socialist orientation" reform in the 1990s, Vietnam has developed rapidly. In 2006, after the report on political system reform was adopted by the Tenth National Congress of Vietnam, Vietnam won unanimous "praise" from the western society.
For a time, Vietnam seemed to be a model of economic development in developing countries. Reports such as "grabbing China's manufacturing jobs" are overwhelming and common. The intensive bombing of the media made many China residents think that "China should learn from Vietnam in many ways".
But since 2008, such reports seem to have suddenly disappeared.
Vietnam's stock market dropped from 1000 last year to 4 14 on May 30th, a drop of more than half.
The trend of CPI index in Vietnam last year
The inflation rate in Vietnam has reached an unacceptable level. Vietnamese residents rushed to buy dollars, and Vietnamese banks refused to exchange them, so they snapped up gold!
House prices in Ho Chi Minh City have also plummeted, and bank bad debts are inevitable. Morgan Stanley believes that loose lending standards may lead to a banking crisis in Vietnam.
With the economic chaos in Vietnam, there are also signs of instability in Vietnamese society.
The problems caused by the bursting of Vietnam's economic bubble have begun to attract the attention of the whole world, especially Asian countries.
Which straw does Nong Desmond want to catch?
When Vietnam's economy entered the most dangerous moment, Vietnamese Secretary Nong Demeng came to Beijing.
When meeting with General Secretary Hu Jintao, Nong Demeng emphasized the traditional friendship between China and Vietnam, which is "comrades plus brothers".
Nong Demeng believes that Sino-Vietnamese relations "were personally created by President Ho Chi Minh and President Mao Zedong, carefully cultivated by the leaders of the two parties and countries, and are priceless to the two parties, two countries and two peoples."
Nong Demeng has visited China many times before, but this is the first time that he emphasized the relationship between China and Vietnam as "comrades and brothers".
There are indications that Nong Demeng's trip was not included in China's original foreign affairs agenda. There is no relevant report on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. There is only a short report of less than 100 words on the homepage of the website of the International Liaison Department, and there is no relevant forecast of Nong Demeng's visit in the "Visit Forecast" column of the website of the International Liaison Department. Besides, the time of Nong Demeng's visit conflicts with that of Lee Myung-bak and Wu Boxiong, which also indicates that this may be a temporary arrangement.
All these indicate that Vietnamese high-level officials are worried about Vietnam's domestic economic situation, and Vietnam is trying to seize the lifeline of China and ask China for help.
Pan Da believes that the form of assistance requested by Viet Nam may include foreign exchange support. At present, Vietnam's sovereign credit rating is already negative, and it is impossible to borrow money from other parts of the world. Capital outflows and tight foreign exchange reserves. Secondly, Viet Nam may ask China for window guidance to avoid the capital flight from China and Hongkong. Mainland China, Hongkong and Taiwan Province Province are the main sources of Vietnamese foreign direct investment.
Will the devaluation of the dong trigger a new Asian financial crisis?
The current situation in Vietnam is similar to that in Thailand before the Asian financial crisis, including capital flight, trade deficit, currency depreciation pressure and so on.
However, the capital outflow from Vietnam and the devaluation of the Vietnamese dong may not trigger a new round of Asian financial crisis. However, Vietnam's own economy cannot escape the impact.
This crisis is different from Thailand in 1997. 1997 was the period of rapid economic development in the United States, and the network bubble began to form. Due to the improper financial policy of the Thai authorities, the crisis broke out before the United States. Three years after the Asian financial crisis, the Internet bubble in the United States began to burst.
Vietnam's economic crisis is only a microcosm of the global subprime mortgage crisis. Because Vietnam's market economy transformation is still in the primary stage, the overall economic elasticity is poor, and the level of financial policy formulation by the authorities needs to be further improved.
It should be pointed out that Vietnam's early economic policies tended to "catch up with India and catch up with China", which accumulated risks for Vietnam's overall economy. In contrast, China started the macro-control policy for overheated investment in fixed assets earlier, so there was no big ups and downs in the economy as a whole.
The Washington Consensus requires that emerging economies should be export-oriented and do not need to establish a comprehensive national economic system (such as the heavy industry sector), which also laid the groundwork for Vietnam's economic crisis.
Vietnam's economic crisis under the background of American subprime mortgage crisis may hardly lead to the shock of the whole Asian economy.
If Vietnam can curb the trend of capital outflow and increase its anti-inflation efforts, the short-term pressure on the devaluation of the Vietnamese dong will be reduced. We know from public reports that Vietnam is also making such efforts.
Another potential risk cannot be ignored. The political orientation formulated by the 10th National Congress of Viet Nam bears the legacy of China's "bourgeois liberalization" in the 1980s. Signs of social unrest in Vietnam have begun to emerge, and the possibility of great social unrest caused by economic problems such as inflation cannot be ruled out.
To sum up, Pan Da believes that Vietnam's economy is facing unprecedented difficulties, but it is difficult to lead to a full-scale Asian financial crisis. However, Vietnam's inflation problem may remind the monetary authorities of various countries, including China, to pay more attention to inflation control, thus increasing the possibility of China raising interest rates by 27 basis points again. In addition, some industries with a large proportion of export revenue to developing countries such as Vietnam may be greatly affected, such as the motorcycle industry. Pan Da believes that the US subprime mortgage crisis contains deep-seated problems of the global economy, rather than a single problem of the US housing market. At present, the first stage of the subprime mortgage crisis represented by the American financial crisis has basically passed, and investors need to pay more attention to the impact of the second and third stages of the subprime mortgage crisis.
The hyperinflation in Vietnam has sounded the alarm for Asian countries.
Vietnam's rising inflation may even turn into a full-scale crisis, which has sounded the alarm for other Asian countries trying to control soaring prices.
Economists say that so far, the impact of Vietnam's problems on other Asian economies is limited. However, when the economy is still growing strongly (which is different from the situation in the United States and Western Europe), if Asian central banks cannot act quickly to curb price increases, the consequences will be unimaginable, and Vietnam is a warning.
The low interest rate in Vietnam triggered a real estate boom, and the weakening of the local currency linked to the US dollar led to a sharp increase in exports, but since then, the situation in the country has turned sharply. Since the beginning of this year, the main indexes of Vietnam's stock market have fallen by 55%, while prices are still soaring. The Vietnamese government said earlier this week that the annual inflation rate in May was slightly higher than 25%.
In a research report on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley warned that loose lending standards led to the banking crisis. The agency also predicted that the exchange rate of Vietnam's local currency, the Vietnamese dong, against the US dollar may fall sharply in the coming year.
Fitch Ratings downgraded Vietnam's sovereign bond rating from stable to negative on Thursday. The agency said that Vietnam's policy response to accelerating inflation was too slow and weak.
In recent years, the central banks of many Asian countries have taken controlling inflation as their main policy objective. However, relatively speaking, few countries' central banks are truly independent, and they are easily influenced by political pressure in the process of maintaining economic growth.
Some countries, such as India and China, choose to control excess liquidity by raising the bank reserve ratio instead of raising interest rates, although interest rates may be more effective in curbing inflation. Some countries are waiting to see if a bumper harvest can alleviate the rise in food prices. In countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines, food expenditure accounts for 40% or more of the consumer price index (CPI).
The case of Vietnam shows the serious consequences of hesitation in curbing inflation.
Spencer, director and strategist of ThanViet Securities Company in Ho Chi Minh City? Spencer White said that the situation in Vietnam is the same as that in Asia ten or twenty years ago. At present, there is not much financial integration between Vietnam and other Asian markets, but this may damage investors' enthusiasm for investing in developing economies that are regarded as the most risky.
A year ago, Vietnam was the darling of global investors. At that time, multinational banks such as H * * C Holdings PCL were buying shares in local banks. Developers from South Korea and China's Taiwan Province Province have begun to develop large-scale satellite cities, providing supporting facilities for thousands of square meters of new office buildings in downtown areas of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
Vietnam's large state-owned enterprises began to diversify to become powerful enterprise groups, thus competing with more foreign companies after Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization.
Some senior Vietnamese leaders expressed doubts about Premier Ruan Jinyong's determination to establish large enterprise groups, which are usually funded by low-interest loans provided by state-owned banks. Vo Van Kiet, the former prime minister of Vietnam, wrote an open letter to Ruan Jinyong last year, pointing out that the mistakes made by Vietnam now are exactly the same as those made by South Korea, Malaysia and other countries before the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s.
When oil and food prices began to rise at the end of 2007, Vietnam's central bank did not respond quickly to control inflationary pressures. Some government economists say that the central bank does not want to cancel low-interest loans.
An economist in Vietnam said that the central bank's policy is largely the result of the government's will, and the government hopes to promote economic growth as much as possible and ensure that state-owned enterprises can occupy a place in the economy in the future. In view of the sensitivity of this topic, The Economist declined to be named.
According to people familiar with the matter, earlier this year, as rising prices triggered protests and strikes, Ruan Jinyong instructed Ruan Wenshao, governor of the central bank, to take more active measures to curb inflation.
The central bank expanded the exchange rate range of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar in order to decouple the local currency from the weak US dollar and enable Vietnam to better absorb the rising oil costs.
The result was contrary to expectations. In Vietnam, a country with weak currency flexibility, people have been using the US dollar as a convenient alternative currency for many years, and the adjustment of exchange rate has caused widespread public panic. The largest denomination banknote in Vietnam is 500,000 Vietnamese dong, which is about 30 US dollars. Such a large denomination of paper money is rare in the world.
Some local banks refused to exchange dollars. The country's share price plummeted as banks tightened credit and refused to issue Vietnamese dong loans to customers who bought shares. In March this year, Ruan Jinyong lowered Vietnam's economic growth target for 2008 from 8.5% to a relatively moderate 7% in order to concentrate on fighting inflation.
Since then, the situation has been further aggravated by soaring global food prices and poor rice harvest. The central bank of Vietnam predicts that the current account deficit (that is, the difference between a country's imported products, services and exports) will account for 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and will reach 7.5% in 2009. 1997 Thailand was forced to devalue its local currency, the Thai baht, which triggered the Asian financial crisis. At that time, the country's current account deficit accounted for 6.5% of GDP.
At the same time, Vietnamese have been withdrawing money from bank accounts and buying gold instead. Some people also began to hoard dollars to prevent inflation.
According to local media reports, in Ho Chi Minh City, the commercial center of Vietnam, house prices have fallen by half this year. According to Morgan Stanley's estimation, loans have been growing at an annual rate of more than 35%, and real estate loans account for about 10% of total loans.
Vietnam has fallen, how to fight the next battle?
Since 2008, Vietnam's stock market has dropped from 1 0,000 points last year to 4 14 points on May 30th, a drop of more than half. The inflation rate in Vietnam has reached an unacceptable level. The Vietnamese dong depreciated sharply, Vietnamese residents rushed to buy dollars, and Vietnamese banks refused to exchange them, so they snapped up gold! House prices in Ho Chi Minh City have also plummeted, and bank bad debts are inevitable. Morgan Stanley believes that loose lending standards may lead to a banking crisis in Vietnam. With the economic chaos in Vietnam, there are signs of instability in Vietnamese society!
Nong Demeng, secretary of Vietnam, made a surprise visit to Beijing, exposing the economic crisis in Vietnam to the world and asking China to help them. For such a neighboring country, it's okay not to pull. However, we must be alert to the economic crisis in that country. This year, the China stock market has also fallen by nearly half; House prices in Shenzhen have fallen by half, and Guangzhou has also fallen by a lot. At present, the vacancy rate of housing in the country has increased greatly, and the trend of sharp decline in housing prices is obvious. ; China's exports are also declining, and more importantly, the profits of export products have fallen sharply!
From the current economic crisis in Vietnam, it can be seen that the depreciation of the US dollar and the rise in oil prices are the two major dead spots of the country's economy. At this time, China was also troubled by these two problems. Therefore, we should further deepen our understanding of these two issues and see clearly the evil heart of the United States!
At present, the international oil price and China oil price are upside down! The United States has benefited the most from the rise in oil prices, because several major oil companies in the world are American. Therefore, when oil prices rise, the United States can make huge profits by selling oil.
However, in order to curb inflation, our government has adopted a policy of limiting the rise of oil prices, so China's oil prices are seriously upside down with the world oil prices! In order to ensure the production and operation of enterprises, our government also makes up part of the losses of oil enterprises through subsidies, thus benefiting other enterprises. At this time, we have to notice that China's petroleum derivatives exported to the United States, such as plastic products and chemical fiber products, are all produced at the price of domestic petroleum raw materials! To put it bluntly, our government now also provides subsidies to American consumers! China economy is losing a lot of blood! ! !
There have been so many incidents this year, any of which is extraordinary in previous years, and it is impossible not to affect the economy. Why it didn't appear is well known. There was an oil shortage in Shanghai a few days ago; The oil price in Hong Kong is more than double that in the mainland, and trucks in Hong Kong are now driving to Shenzhen to refuel ... There is a proper term in the stock market called "makeup". Then, is there a way to "make up" the crisis encountered by the existing economy? The crisis in Vietnam has little impact on our country, but the forces that defeated Vietnam are accumulating in our country because they have gained great benefits from Vietnam's economy! It is not difficult to imagine that in the near future, we need to deal with more violent attacks. If we take decisive measures now, we may have to pay higher tuition fees!
It should also be noted that some time ago, international speculators wanted to raise food prices and make a big profit from it, which led to civil strife in some countries. But it is gratifying that the high international food prices have not caused a storm in China. Why? Because we have enough reserves!
Nowadays, the pressure of rising domestic oil prices is close to the limit. As we all know, the rise in oil prices will inevitably lead to an overall rise in prices. If it is not well controlled, it will fall into a vicious circle of inflation! How to deal with the possible economic crisis in this special period? Every citizen should shoulder the mission, and the individual is here to throw a brick to attract jade and offer good words to everyone:
1. At present, the use of energy such as coal and electricity is close to the limit, and the pattern is difficult to change in the short term. Therefore, we should mobilize the whole people to save energy. Call for "patriotism and energy saving"! Such as driving less private cars, using less disposable plastic cups, lunch boxes and plastic bags, and using less or even importing foreign products. Fight a modern "people's war"! Perhaps this is the magic weapon to win the economic war with the United States! It's no big deal for a person to save electricity once, but when you add it to the savings of1300 million people, it's a considerable number.
2. Raise the price of oil and its products, reduce the inversion between domestic oil prices and international oil prices, and increase subsidies for vulnerable groups (including farmers). Many people may suffer losses, but we can reduce greater losses, especially the national economy will not lose blood again. And once we win this economic war, I believe all China people will laugh when they fall asleep.
3. Increase oil imports from Iran, Venezuela, Russia and other countries (don't settle in dollars! ), as far as possible to reduce the import of oil from American-controlled enterprises. Negotiate with the governments of Iran, Venezuela, Russia and other countries to seek support and fight against the economic war launched by the United States.
4. Reduce the use of imported goods, especially those imported from the United States, Japan and Europe.
5. increase exports. Now that Vietnam has fallen (which is good for us), the products originally transferred from China will now be produced in China, so it is necessary to raise the prices of export products and expand the international market share.
6. Reduce the holdings of US Treasury bonds, because the dollar depreciates too fast. Once we win, the dollar is worthless, so let go!
7. Increase the production of agricultural products such as grain, advocate economy, and exchange oil and industrial raw materials with other countries when necessary (it must not be settled in dollars! )。
8. Increase the development and utilization of new energy sources, especially the research and development of petroleum alternative energy sources.
Although these suggestions are rough, I hope everyone can work together! God bless China! China will win! Destroy this economic war initiated by the United States! Once the demand for oil in the United States and other western countries is greatly reduced, oil prices may collapse. At that time, we can stand by and wave goodbye to the dollar. ...