After the skyrocketing in 216, the current house price has already been "unattainable". Apart from the land king effect and product upgrade that developers often talk about, the release of money from the floodgates is also considered as the main factor of this round of increase. For most people, once they choose to buy a house, the loan almost becomes one of the necessary conditions, and the tightness of the loan policy determines how much house they can incite. So, can the loan to buy a house now be as good as when the money was loose in 216?
the mortgage is "guaranteed", and there is still room for the first suite and the housechangers to move
After the Spring Festival, the central bank suspended reverse repurchase for six consecutive days and gradually recovered some liquidity. The simple explanation for suspending reverse repurchase is that the central bank will no longer lend funds and let the liquidity put in the previous period naturally expire. Many people think that this is the beginning of monetary policy from easing to tightening, and some analysts even think that this is a precursor to the interest rate hike cycle, and the mortgage may be affected.
so is it still appropriate to buy a house with a loan now? In fact, the answer to this question mainly depends on two indicators: one is the strictness of recognizing the house and the other is the preferential interest rate of the first suite.
Last year, the New Deal of 93 made a new definition of mortgage. For buyers who have no house or loan, the down payment for purchasing the first ordinary self-occupied house is not less than 35%, and the down payment ratio for purchasing the non-first ordinary self-occupied house is not less than 4%; For buyers who have a suite to buy a house again, whether they have loan records or not, they are all considered as second suites, with a minimum down payment of 5% for ordinary self-occupied houses and 7% for non-ordinary self-occupied houses.
in terms of interest rate, the current benchmark interest rate of the bank is 4.9, and the interest rate of the first suite can be discounted by 1%, which is equivalent to 4.41 after the discount, while the interest rate of the second suite is raised by 1%.
it is not difficult to see that the current loan policy is tightening for the second home loan, and the term of commercial loan for the second home has been shortened to a maximum of 25 years, which has been implemented at present, while the previous term of commercial loan for the second home was 3 years, which is considered as a policy tendency to curb real estate speculation.
correspondingly, the first suite is still loose. According to the latest credit policy provided by intermediary brokerage companies, at present, many banks have mortgages in other places, and the loans for buying houses in Beijing are still the first set. Although the interest rate is generally 1%, foreign banks such as Standard Chartered Bank can give a 15% discount on the first suite. Previously, there were two sets of mortgages in other places. The down payment for ordinary self-occupied houses was 5%, and the interest rate rose by 1%.
In this regard, the analyst of Weijia Anjie, a real estate financial service company, told the Beijing Youth Daily that the loan policy has taken care of the first home buyers who have no houses in Beijing, while the loan space is gradually tightened for the re-buyers of existing properties. Therefore, the market did not step into the trough immediately after the New Deal of 93 last year. Due to the inertia of rising house prices and the fine-tuning of this "guaranteed and pressured" credit policy, the property market is slowly moving from rapid rise to stability.
The analyst said that the tap of money has not been completely tightened for the property market, and there is still room for the first suite and the change of rooms to become the first group of buyers, which will also be an important supporting force for the market in the future.
central bank suspends reverse repurchase to induce interest rate hike
However, it should be noted that although the mortgage is still relatively loose for the first home buyers, it should be noted that a series of actions by the central bank have intensified the expectation of interest rate hike recently.
on Monday, after a six-day suspension, the central bank restarted the reverse repurchase. Although the reverse repurchase reached 1 billion yuan, it still returned 9 billion yuan because 19 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired in the open market of the central bank that day.
not only that, the central bank may continue to withdraw funds this week. It is reported that more than one trillion yuan of funds will expire this week, including: 9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires; On February 15, 151.5 billion yuan for 6 months MLF; About February 17th, 63 billion yuan of TLF will expire, and it is still unknown whether the central bank will continue to make it. The above-mentioned amount of funds due is superimposed, and the scale may reach 1.68 trillion yuan, which will be the week with the largest amount of funds due in a month, and the natural net withdrawal amount in a single week is expected to hit a record high.
Not only did the central bank withdraw cash, but it also changed the previous policy of opening floodgates and began to tighten the "taps". On the first day after the Spring Festival holiday, the People's Bank of China raised the reverse repurchase rate and the standing loan convenience rate. Just before the Spring Festival on January 24th, the central bank just raised the medium-term lending convenience rate. The successive increase in interest rates has aroused great concern in the market and is considered as a "micro-interest rate increase".
The property market, which has long relied on capital leverage, has begun to feel the process of deleveraging. For example, in Nanjing, where house prices soared last year, 4,926 units were sold in the property market in January this year, down as much as 6% year-on-year.
The tightening of credit affects the psychological expectation of buyers. After the holiday, the transactions of new houses and second-hand houses all declined
And the transactions of Beijing property market also dropped significantly. According to the statistics of Yahao Junyue Club, in the first week after the Spring Festival in 217 (February 6-February 12), 758 sets of commercial housing (excluding affordable housing and self-occupied housing) were sold in Beijing, with a transaction area of 8,6 square meters. This transaction volume decreased by 1% and 1% respectively compared with the first week after the Spring Festival in 216. Second-hand houses were the most affected, with only 3,842 units sold in the first week after the Spring Festival, a decrease of 35% compared with the first week after last year.
In this regard, Guo Yi, director of institutional marketing of Yahao, believes that the expectation of credit deleveraging has affected the transaction of the property market. Since the beginning of 217, the central bank has continuously raised MSL, reverse repurchase and SLF interest rates "in disguised form" before and after the Spring Festival, and the maximum loan period for second homes has been shortened to 25 years. All these changes indicate that the monetary and credit policies will remain tight in 217, and negative factors will put pressure on the property market sales. At the same time, because the appraised value of the second-hand mortgage collateral is usually about 8% of the transaction price, the second-hand market is more effective under the influence of monetary and credit policies such as loan percentage and interest rate increase, so the turnover of the second-hand market tends to decline after the holiday.
It's true, too. After the New Year, the first knife of deleveraging in Beijing went to the second home loan. Beijing Branch, including ICBC, CCB, BOC, China Merchants Bank, CITIC and other banks, will purchase the mortgage loan for the second home from February 8 (inclusive), and the term shall not exceed 25 years (originally 3 years).
Weijia Anjie analyst pointed out that after the "September 3" policy last year increased the down payment ratio, shortening the loan period of the second home this time will undoubtedly increase the monthly pressure on the loan, which will directly affect the psychological expectation of the buyers. However, the current deleveraging action is still relatively mild and will not have a direct impact on trading volume. On the one hand, the loan period is influenced by the age of the buyer and the age of the house, so there are not many people who really apply for a 3-year loan in the market. On the other hand, at present, improving home buyers is still the main force in the market, and their purchasing power is generally strong. Although the monthly repayment amount has increased, the loan life has been shortened and the total interest expenses have been saved a lot, so the substantial impact on the buyers is not great.
(The above answer was published on March 3, 217, and the current relevant purchase policy should be based on the actual situation)
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