21st Century Business Herald reporter Li Sha reported from Beijing on December 21, real estate stocks set off a surge of daily limit. As of the close of trading, more than 20 real estate development stocks, including Xiangjiang Holdings, Tahoe Group, Songdu Holdings, Jiakai City, Blu-ray Development, Beijing Investment Development, and Joy City, had reached their daily limit. Hong Kong stocks such as Sunac China, Xiangsheng Holdings, Landsea Properties, CIFI Holdings, and Times China also experienced surges.
According to the Oriental Fortune sector rankings, the top three A-share industries on the 21st were real estate services, real estate development and decoration and building materials, with increases of 7, 5.7 and 3.6 respectively.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, analyzed that the surge in real estate stocks is the result of a combination of multiple factors. Including the central bank's lowering of LPR, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently issued documents to support the mergers and acquisitions of high-quality real estate companies and high-quality projects of real estate companies with difficulties. Li Yujia said that as various regions have begun to introduce policies to rescue the property market, it can be roughly judged that the policy trend in the property market will become stronger and stronger.
Li Yujia pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the current overall real estate risk expectations are still relatively large, and policies have shifted from direct stimulation on the demand side in the past to structural relief. "It will take a long time to move from the policy bottom to the market bottom. The market will be relatively poor from December this year to January and February next year." Li Yujia said.
Structural policies continue to positively guide industry expectations
On December 20, the People's Bank of China announced that the 1-year LPR was 3.8, down 5 basis points from the previous month, and the 5-year LPR was 3.8. The above LPR is 4.65, unchanged for 20 consecutive months.
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center analyzes that the direct reason for this reduction in LPR quotations is the guidance of the recent reserve requirement ratio reduction. LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years continues to remain unchanged, indicating that so far, there has been no change in mortgage interest rates. causing widespread impact. However, the credit easing window is opening. Under the requirement of "promoting a virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry", there is the possibility of appropriate relaxation of development loans and mortgage loans.
Judging from market conditions, mortgage interest rates in some areas have begun to correct. The mainstream first-home loan interest rate in December in 103 cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute was 5.64, and the second-home loan interest rate was 5.91, both down 5 basis points from November. Among them, 40 cities had a month-on-month decrease in mortgage interest rates. Since the fourth quarter, first- and second-home loan interest rates have dropped by a cumulative 10 basis points and 8 basis points from their September highs. The average loan cycle in December was 57 days, 11 days shorter than in November.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, pointed out that mortgage interest rates in 103 key cities have dropped month-on-month for three consecutive months, and the loan cycle has been shortened to less than two months. Under the guidance of a "virtuous cycle", the continued improvement of the credit environment will bring benefits to market transactions at the end of the year and drive the market bottom to repair.
At the same time, according to multiple media reports, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently jointly issued a notice to encourage banking financial institutions to provide financial support and services for the merger and acquisition of risk management projects of key real estate companies, focusing on supporting high-quality real estate projects. Corporate mergers and acquisitions of high-quality projects from large real estate companies that are in danger and operating in difficulty.
China Index Research Institute analyzes that the issuance of this notice will actively promote the resolution of the current liquidity risks of real estate companies and directional financing for real estate companies without changing the general direction of real estate financing policies. Relax. High-quality companies can seize the financing window period to actively search for high-quality projects, and real estate companies in danger should use policies and market conditions to safely handle problem projects and risky enterprise projects.
Kang Weiwei, director of the Urban and Real Estate Research Center of the National Development Institute of Renmin University of China and professor of the Department of Finance and Finance of the Business School of Renmin University of China, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that real estate debt risk is the main body and prevention of real estate risks. The key point is that once real estate debt defaults on a large scale and credit risks arise, it will have an impact or even crisis on the entire economic sector.
In fact, on December 3, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission pointed out that it is necessary to guide banking and insurance institutions to provide financial services to the real estate and construction industries on the premise of implementing prudent management of real estate finance.
According to different situations in various places, we will focus on meeting the mortgage needs of first-time homes and improved housing, reasonably issue real estate development loans and merger and acquisition loans, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry and market.
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center believes that in order to promote the normal release of reasonable demand for home purchases, the subsequent 5-year LPR interest rate may also be lowered.
Li Yujia said that the policy will continue to support real estate, but it is a structural policy. The current reduction of LPR is only for one-year period, which to a certain extent shows that the macro level still avoids sending signals that obviously stimulate the market recovery.
Multiple places and multiple policies support reasonable housing demand
Recently, the central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and others have made many announcements to correct real estate policies, positively guiding the expectations of the real estate industry. The Central Economic Work Conference also made it clear that it is necessary to strengthen anticipatory guidance and emphasize the need to implement city-specific policies to promote a virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
On the demand side, many places have recently launched a variety of policies to support reasonable housing needs, including providing home purchase subsidies, issuing coupons, subsidizing home purchase deed taxes, and relaxing provident fund loan restrictions.
Among them, home purchase subsidies are the most common. Many places provide housing subsidies to specific groups such as talents, new citizens, and three-child families.
For example, on December 13, Wuhu issued a notice on the detailed rules for housing purchase subsidies for young talents. House purchase subsidies will be issued to qualified talents, with a maximum subsidy of 10% of the house price. On October 11, Ningbo issued an announcement on housing purchase subsidies for talents in Fenghua District. , providing housing purchase subsidies of 80,000 to 1 million yuan to qualified talents. Nantong Haian provides subsidies of 200 yuan and 400 yuan per square meter respectively to support families with two and three children in purchasing houses; Harbin has expanded the scope of house purchase subsidies to talents and new citizens; Changchun provides house purchase subsidies to talents and farmers who have moved into the city, and talents and House purchase subsidies for farmers per square meter are 50 yuan and 80 yuan respectively.
Many places issue coupons to encourage home purchases. For example, Guilin issued a document on December 9, proposing to issue consumer vouchers to buyers who purchased new houses in the five districts of Guilin in December. The amount is 1% of the contract value. They can purchase department stores, home appliances, vehicles, etc. at local commercial enterprises, and the sales The projects with the largest area will be rewarded with corresponding consumption coupons. Similar practices have been introduced in Changchun and other places.
In addition, in order to reduce the cost of home purchase, many places provide home purchase deed tax subsidies to home buyers. For example, Hengyang released an implementation plan for financial home purchase subsidies for new homes and underground parking spaces on December 10, which provides house purchasers who meet the conditions. Subsidy of 15-50 RMB deed tax subsidy for new houses and 80 RMB deed tax subsidy for underground parking spaces. Kaifeng and other places have also launched similar policies.
Moderately relaxing housing provident fund loan restrictions or increasing housing provident fund loan limits in a targeted manner are also common measures to stimulate reasonable housing consumption. For example, on December 13, Huizhou issued a document allowing talents to withdraw housing provident funds for the down payment of home purchases. They can apply for the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans for senior talents in full, and the maximum loan amount for both husband and wife is 1.5 million yuan. Harbin has relaxed the housing age requirements for second-hand housing provident fund loans, etc.
Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo Institution, told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that the targeted encouragement of reasonable housing needs in many places, especially the housing needs of talents, is based on the hope of supporting and stimulating local industries and promoting professional development. Derived from the consideration of the housing balance goal, it will bring certain benefits to the property market to a certain extent, but the impact will be limited.
Xu Xiaole told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that cities may continue to follow up on preferential subsidy policies for home purchases in the future, and the relevant policies will have a certain degree of sustainability. The purpose is to improve market expectations and boost residents’ housing consumption. Confidence will ultimately help the property market return to stability.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that on November 30, Baoding, Hebei Province released an implementation plan for comprehensively promoting the development of the passive ultra-low energy consumption building industry, canceling the price limit and purchase restriction policies for passive ultra-low energy consumption building commercial housing projects. Provident fund loan limit increased by 20.
Kang Wei believes that purchase restrictions and loan restrictions are an important decision that can truly reflect the reality of housing for living and not for speculation. Supporting residents' reasonable housing purchase needs, including improved housing, does not mean that hot cities will reduce the down payment ratio for second homes.
The relationship between supply and demand in hotspot cities is tight, and higher down payment restrictions for second homes must be adopted to focus on meeting the housing demand for first homes. Once the down payment ratio for second homes is reduced, it may aggravate the current situation of unsatisfied basic housing needs, and is also related to** *Contrary to the requirements of wealth. Only cities with relaxed supply and demand relationships can appropriately reduce the down payment ratio for second homes.