Since the 9.2 billion Changsha land king cake was swallowed in 2007, the Changsha project has become a key word for Beichen Industrial, and it was once the focus of industry criticism for its lack of funds to develop such a large-scale project.
By 2012 and even 2013, the Changsha Beichen Delta project had become Beichen Industrial’s top priority and the key to its success or failure.
Some sources even joked that the importance of Changsha has made it difficult for the Beichen headquarters to control it. In other words, the Beijing headquarters cannot control the Changsha branch.
On the other hand, Beichen Industrial, which led this project, has also faded from its glory days when it undertook the construction of the Beijing Asian Games Village. It has become a local state-owned enterprise that only develops projects in Changsha, Beijing, with annual sales of no more than 5 billion yuan.
When its performance was brilliant, it once became one of the largest comprehensive real estate operating companies in the country. In 2006, its net assets also ranked second among listed companies in the industry. Its investment properties + retail business The + development property model once became the industry benchmark, but in less than 10 years, everything has changed.
Residential wasteland
As Beijing, where it made its fortune, Beichen has few sales projects here, with only Beichen Xianglu, Bihai Ark, and Shunyi Mapo projects remaining. and Changhe Yushu, etc., also made very little contribution to the company.
At the performance meeting held in Hong Kong on March 21, Beichen Industrial Chairman He Jiangchuan revealed that of the 3.75 billion yuan in contract sales last year, 2.03 billion yuan was for the Changsha project and 8.55 billion yuan for the second phase of Bihai Ark Villa. billion, while the sales of other projects in Beijing were not involved.
In reality, the sales of Beichen Industrial’s Beijing project are indeed unsatisfactory. Although the second phase of Bihai Ark contributed 855 million yuan, 14 of the 21 houses have been sold, and there is not much remaining stock. However, the Changhe Yushu later project has not yet launched any new products after adjusting its planning.
As its main project in Beijing - Beichen Xianglu, according to the news on the Beijing Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission website on March 27, it obtained the existing house sales certificate 4 times in 2010 and 2011 and is currently on sale. The project is Buildings 1-16, with a total of 712 residential units, and 142 units have been signed. The sale rate since the opening has been 19.9%.
It is worth noting that whether it is early pre-sales or current home sales, the final average transaction price is also around 19,000-21,000 yuan/square meter, and the fluctuation is not large. This is a miracle in Beijing, where housing prices vary from day to day.
According to the project staff, the project is currently selling lofts with an area of ??more than 220 square meters, with an average price of 25,000 yuan/square meter, and there are more than 70 units left. However, the project price has always been If there is not much ups and downs, it means that they don't understand.
Someone familiar with the matter pointed out that the price of Beichen Xianglu has not increased since 2009. There are two reasons: First, the project is close to the Aerospace City and is located on the Northwest Sixth Ring Road, so transportation is inconvenient. To go to the project, you have to go through Xiangshan, and you can only take the crowded Badaling Expressway or Beiqing Expressway. Now it is said that a road will be built through the mountain. The completion of this road will improve the prospects of the project. The highway project has been approved, but implementation may not take until 2016.
Secondly, there are no small apartments in Beichen Xianglu. The main apartments are 140-150 square meters, and the apartments of more than 200 square meters. Although the selling price is 21,000-23,000 yuan/square meter, the total price is not enough for those who just need it. Still higher for the population. At present, most of the customers of this project are office workers from Yongfeng Science and Technology Park in the north, with a straight-line distance of 5-10km.
According to a person from an organization in Beijing, the current weekly transaction volume of Beichen Xianglu is around 5 units, which is considered relatively good.
It is worth noting that near Beichen Xianglu, Poly Xishan Linyu, which opened later, has long been sold out. Recently, Zhengyuan? Shangfeng Shangshui has also sold more than 1,000 units. The average price of the latter two is around 30,000 yuan/square meter, which is much higher than that of Beichen Xianglu.
The dismal performance of the Beijing project made Beichen Industrial place all its hopes on the Changsha Delta project.
He Jiangchuan, chairman of Beichen Industrial, gave such a set of data: From the perspective of salable area, the area we could sell in 2012 was 620,000 square meters, but the total salable area in 2013 The area increased to 1.06 million square meters, an increase of 440,000 square meters, mainly the Changsha project. ?
Some people familiar with the matter also said that the salable volume of the Beichen Changsha project this year is expected to be 6-7 billion yuan. In 2013, Beichen Industrial's sales target is 5.27 billion yuan. Citing a research report from a securities firm, it is estimated that Beichen Industrial's property development segment is expected to achieve sales of 6 billion yuan in 2013 if the sales of the Changsha project go smoothly. ?
Data show that since entering the market in 2010, the D2, D3, and E5 residential areas of the Beichen Delta project have been launched for sale one after another. A total of 4,617 residential units have been launched, and 3,615 units have been sold so far. , the overall removal rate reached 78.3%.
In view of this, Beichen Industrial has reason to believe that as more sources of goods enter the market, the Delta project will bring more performance to the company, but at the same time, He Jiangchuan also has his own worries.
In 2013, Beichen Industrial plans to sell a contracted sales area of ??370,000 square meters, mainly because the Changsha project has a larger launch volume. However, when this plan was formulated, the "New National Five Policies" had not yet been promulgated. The promulgation of this policy and the future details of the Changsha version will definitely have a certain impact on the Changsha market, because Beichen Delta's product line is aimed at small and medium-sized apartments.
Some people in the industry pointed out that Changsha’s previous purchase restrictions were targeted at large apartments with an area of ??more than 90 square meters, while Beichen Industrial used to mainly sell small and medium-sized apartment products that were not within the scope of the purchase restrictions. However, National Article 5 requires all All products must be added to the purchase restriction group, which will definitely have a certain negative impact on Beichen.
Some analysts predict that if Changsha’s purchase restrictions are tightened, it may have a 20%-30% impact on the Beichen project. As a result, Beichen Industrial's performance in 2013 faces more uncertainties from the policy level.
Death of Capital
Among Beichen’s operating income of 5.735 billion yuan in 2012, the contribution of development properties (sales of properties) was 3.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.35%. Business income from investment properties (including hotels) was 2.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.81%.
However, commercial properties have experienced a decline, and have continued to decline for two or three consecutive years.
Data show that in 2012, Beichen Industrial’s commercial properties achieved operating income of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.17%. Affected by the intensifying market competition and the fact that new projects are still in the operation cultivation period, the profit before tax It was 7.532 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 79.66%.
And this is another point that He Jiangchuan emphasized at the performance meeting on March 21. Last year, our business performance was not as good as the previous year, and it has continued to decline for two or three years. .
According to him, the current situation of Beichen commercial properties is that the operating income and profits of old shopping centers have declined year by year. The two projects of Mingmen Real Estate and Beichen Shopping Center in Media Village are climbing, but the climbing situation is not good.
Mingmen Property is 100% owned by Beichen Industrial. Although it is a joint venture with a company in Hong Kong, the operating company is losing money in commercial retail. Although the company has some rental income, overall calculation It was a tie, but the business itself was still operating at a loss. The B5 store next to the Media Village suffered a loss of 18 million yuan the year before last and a loss of 36 million yuan last year. The turnover in 2012 was lower than that in 2011, and the rental income was also adjusted lower.
?These businesses can reflect the business situation in Beijing. First of all, competition has increased, and the number of commercial retail suppliers has increased in both the Asian Games Village and Beijing. It turns out that the main business in the north is ours, so the profit of our shopping mall was 60 million yuan at the highest, but now it is only 35 million to 40 million yuan, which has led to a decline in gross profit margin?, He Jiangchuan explained.
Industry insiders analyzed that the losses on commercial properties mentioned by He Jiangchuan should include depreciation, not from the perspective of cash flow. As far as the commercial part is concerned, its rental income in 2012 can cover all operating costs of the headquarters, and there is still a balance.
But on the other hand, Beichen's commercial real estate situation has indeed reached a point where it needs to change.
He Jiangchuan hopes that the next step will be to consider overall strategic cooperation or reorganization to reverse this situation and solve the problem of the commercial sector, because this sector accounts for a very small amount of Beichen's total, with a total of 15 Thousands of square meters.
According to sources, Beichen Industrial is currently looking for cooperation with many insurance companies and hopes to do some asset securitization projects. This is also a disguised form of financing. It is possible to establish a specialized commercial company to operate these properties.
Beichen Industrial has no choice but to raise funds through this method. As of the end of last year, Beichen Industrial had 2.6 billion in cash on its books, but only a billion of it could be used independently. At the same time, Beichen is burdened with 11.6 billion in liabilities, including 4.3 billion in short-term debt and 7.3 billion in long-term debt.
In 2013, Beichen Industrial's capital expenditure was 5.1 billion, and three expenses and tax expenditures were about 500 million yuan. Therefore, some securities companies predict that Beichen will have a cash outflow of about 9.8 billion yuan this year.
According to He Jiangchuan's introduction, apart from sales returns and property mortgage loans, Beichen Industrial does not seem to have a good source of repayment. It is reported that its current financing cost is 15 points higher than the benchmark interest rate.
Therefore, while accelerating project development and turnover in 2013, Beichen plans to take advantage of the "headquarters financing" model and focus on strengthening the rational allocation and use of monetary funds.
In addition, Beichen also hopes to expand financing channels and achieve scale expansion and improvement of sustainable development capabilities through research on emerging real estate businesses such as senior care and cultural tourism and exploration of low-cost expansion models.
Tight cash flow and unbalanced development do not seem to be conditions that should be encountered by state-owned enterprises, but they have actually happened to Beichen Industrial.