Industrial Securities and other research institutions believe that although the cyclical economic growth in China, which is mainly supported by real estate and infrastructure, may come to an end, the transformation and upgrading of macro-economy and the improvement of quality and efficiency will still provide a strong impetus for the long-term stable recovery of China's economy for a long time to come. On the whole, although the management has weakened the GDP growth target for next year, the endogenous vitality of China's economy is still strong. The outflow of related financial capital and industrial capital is not expected to deteriorate for a long time in the foreseeable future. Judging from the current central bank's monetary policy stance, with the gradual determination of the monetary policy orientation, the unfavorable situation such as the widening spread between China and the United States and the capital outflow caused by excessive monetary easing will also be expected to be gradually alleviated.
In addition, in response to the policy signal of "raising interest rates three times in 20 17 years" released by the Federal Reserve at the meeting on interest rates on June 5438+02 this year, the analysis from foreign exchange market institutions such as Futuo Foreign Exchange also pointed out that the recent surge in the US dollar was largely due to Trump's large-scale stimulus measures, including tax cuts, fiscal expenditures and infrastructure expenditures expansion policies, which may enhance the US economic prospects and prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate hikes. However, there is still great uncertainty about the scale and implementation of Trump's stimulus policy, and there is no evidence that tax reduction or deregulation is necessarily related to promoting corporate investment. The rapid appreciation of the US dollar and the accelerated appreciation of the Federal Reserve will weaken the positive impact of stimulus measures on the US economy.
Judging from the prospect of the Fed's interest rate hike, although the "bitmap" implies that the Fed will raise interest rates three times on 20 17, historically, this expectation is often quite different from the actual result. The latest quotation in the US interest rate futures market shows that the market thinks that the probability that the Fed will not raise interest rates after the first quarter is as high as 74.7%. Some investors are overly optimistic about the US dollar based on the Fed's accelerated interest rate hike, which is also a risk that cannot be ignored.
It is expected to remain generally stable.
With the end of 20 16, there are more and more speculations about when the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will "break 7" recently. However, industry insiders said that although the overall operation of RMB exchange rate of 20 17 is still under pressure, the probability of "breaking 7" cannot be ignored. However, in the short and medium term, whether it breaks 7 or not does not affect the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate. Based on the relevant fundamental factors and the central bank's countermeasures, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will remain generally stable for a long time at the beginning of 20 17.
On the evening of February 28th, 65438, an oolong news about "the onshore RMB fell below 7 against the US dollar" once caused widespread concern in the market, but it was later confirmed as an oolong offer. In this regard, Zhong Yue, an analyst of Futuo foreign exchange market in China, believes that "breaking 7" is not the so-called "bottom line" of RMB exchange rate, but the best window period for RMB to actively adjust against the US dollar in stages. Once the RMB exchange rate is moderately adjusted to a reasonable level in the later period, it can play a defensive role in the Fed's potential interest rate hike next year and curb capital outflows.
In addition, Societe Generale and other institutions point out that even if the RMB exchange rate weakens due to external factors in the future, the central bank can generally stabilize the expectations of all parties in the market and control the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate by increasing the opening of capital markets such as the domestic bond market, strengthening conventional capital controls, and promoting the internationalization of the RMB.
On the whole, although the RMB exchange rate may still be affected by unfavorable factors such as the renewal of personal foreign exchange quota in the New Year and the increase in demand for foreign exchange purchase in holidays before the Spring Festival, the relevant fundamental factors and the central bank's response are still expected to maintain the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate.