Since1July 3, 1997, Thailand was forced to declare the floating exchange rate system as the fuse, and a financial storm broke out in Thailand and swept the Philippines. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and other Southeast Asian countries, and spread to Taiwan Province Province, Hongkong, Brazil, Argentina and Greece, and even Wall Street in the United States, London in the United Kingdom and Japan's stock markets plummeted accordingly. This storm shook the whole world and caused great disasters such as the collapse of the monetary system in Thailand, South Korea and Malaysia! Its aftermath will continue to have an impact around the world, especially in Southeast Asian countries, and it will take a long time to get rid of it completely. Speaking of the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia, people can't help cursing a powerful currency speculator-Soros. He is condemned at the moment, and everyone complains! Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir once said: Soros should take full responsibility for this financial turmoil! But the most interesting thing is that from a legal point of view, he did not break any laws, nor did he use dirty means such as violence and bribery. He just speculated on a country's currency one by one like a stock until the government surrendered and was forced to depreciate. As a result, he made huge profits easily! International financial economists call this sharp-minded Hungarian-American "a bad boy in international finance". What is the international economic background of the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia? How to produce. How to develop? What was the result? With the sharp eyes of western economists, we may have a simple and clear understanding of the scope of the spread, especially whether it has an impact on China, and how the bubble economy in Southeast Asian countries was formed at the root of the financial turmoil. Before the crisis broke out on June 9 last year, the annual report of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland pointed out: "The world economy is promising, but there are still hidden dangers in the financial market." The report comprehensively and profoundly pointed out. "The scale of the international market has expanded, and international hot money has grown rapidly, totaling more than 7.2 trillion US dollars. On average, there are: trillions of dollars of activities every day. " These hot money have the characteristics of seeking short-term arbitrage and arbitrage, especially the rapid flow. Therefore, it is called a hedge fund. " Black people-don't do good things, foals-run fast. These huge international hot money is a huge hotbed of financial speculation. Try it: There are 3,500 such black pony funds around the world. The international stock market is extremely active, the investment boom is high, and the stock market and real estate in East Asian countries with rapid economic growth are too active, which strongly stimulates their economic growth by borrowing foreign debts. "These excesses and quick success have directly led to a large number of" bubbles "in the economic development of Southeast Asia-and they are the chief culprit in hurting Southeast Asian countries! It's called reaping the consequences! The role of private capital is increasing day by day. Take Soros, a famous speculator, as an example. His "Quantum Fund" controls more than $4 billion in hot money. These Soros people are like a group of flies, keen to smell the blood of the international financial community at any time. They are the leading black ponies in the Black Pony Fund. The gold market is weak. It is urgent to improve and strengthen the role of banking reform and supervision. Due to historical reasons, the economies of Southeast Asian countries started late, and the industrial revolution was half a century later than that of the West. In fact, the economies of these countries have miraculously increased by double digits. Developed countries such as Britain and the United States have spent 200 years on the road of industrial development, and Southeast Asian countries 1o-20 years will be able to catch up and attempt to surpass it! Just like a car chasing a plane, if you just accelerate blindly, the final result will inevitably be a car crash! The correct way should be to put wings on cars. Mike Weil, a British economist, believes that Southeast Asian countries have weak industrial base, backward technology, immature industrial structure, economic structure and financial structure, and of course there are many loopholes. The elites of these countries only saw their impressive record of double-digit economic growth, but turned a blind eye to many traps on the road ahead. The rapid growth made them overexcited, and also made them quietly start a "daydream" of catching up with Britain and the United States for 20 years. Formulate policies, speed up the progress, and quickly integrate with the international community. We put our economy, which already has a lot of bubbles, into a "blindly accelerating" hollow syringe, further increase the bubbles, and then put the extra-large bubbles in front of the powerful countries under the banner of "connecting with the international community". The result can be imagined! These "stock market bubbles", "real estate bubbles" and "short-term foreign debt bubbles" were really beautiful at first, but now all that remains is the great pain and deep remorse and introspection when they burst! When it comes to the process of ownership, we must also mention super currency speculators like Soros. They have long discovered the bubble economy, financial system and industrial structure in Southeast Asia. The huge loopholes and cracks in the national economic control policy, like flies, have long been eyeing this egg with only cracks! Here, taking Thailand, the country of origin, as an example, we will talk about the process and operation means of Soros's banning Thai milling. British economist Max drew a sketch to illustrate: First, Soros spread rumors in the international financial community: "Thailand's financial instability! Thai baht will depreciate! "Then he secretly lent a huge amount of Thai baht to the bank of Thailand with US dollars as collateral, and then sold a large amount of Thai baht in the money market to buy US dollars, creating an illusion of seeking value preservation (actually savagely attacking Thailand's fixed and stable currency exchange rate system). Suo Shi is the director and spokesman of the international huge fund, and his words are serious enough to drive a large number of small and medium-sized households to follow suit. In this way, Sog Park Jung Su used its short position of only $4 billion and the crisis of people's confidence in Thai baht to easily throw out tens of billions of Thai baht in Thai banks, driving small and medium-sized families to throw out hundreds of billions of Thai baht! In this case, it is no wonder that the Thai government lamented that taking out $5 billion from $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves to rescue the market turned out to be as useless as a pot of water poured on a hot desert in summer. Finally, the Thai government announced its surrender-abandoning the national exchange rate and implementing a floating exchange rate. Devaluation of Thai baht: from July 65,438+0 to 25.9 baht, it plummeted to1October 65,438+0 to 40.6 baht, almost doubling! So Sog Park Jung Su made a net profit of $4 billion! Astronomically, the financial storm happened very quickly, just like dominoes, one fell down and caused a series of reactions. Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, Hongkong and Taiwan Province Province all experienced a large number of foreign capital flight, and a large number of domestic capital fled the stock market in search of preservation. As a result, the stock market exchange rate plummeted. Causing a lot of unemployment. For example, after the collapse of Yamaichi Securities, Japan's largest securities company, 7,500 employees immediately lost their jobs. The stock fell to an all-time low. Take the Philippines as an example. The biggest one-day drop since it hit 10 on August 28th: 9.28%, almost exceeding the 2000 mark. Even Wall Street in the United States, London in the United Kingdom, and the Nikkei index plummeted! In short, its scope, depth and duration are unprecedented. In the next few years, people will gradually feel this! The monetary systems of Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia and other countries that suffered heavy losses collapsed and had to rely on national emergency loans; The South Korean government was forced to accept the harsh conditions of the International Monetary Fund (AMi) and lost considerable national autonomy at the cost of lending AMI $57 billion. Thailand also needs tens of billions of dollars in loans; Other victimized countries in Southeast Asia are similar. It is particularly worth mentioning that even if such a huge loan is given to them, it still cannot solve the fundamental problem! For example, the total foreign debt due in Korea 1998 is 90 billion US dollars, and the loan of 57 billion US dollars is far from enough! Similarly, how easy is it to alleviate the impact of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in the short term? It is impossible for people to "sweep the house out" easily, just as no one can stop it from coming unexpectedly. In a word, the financial crisis in Southeast Asia is so severe-"It's not negotiable to find you! "