Insiders pointed out that the flexibility of two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has increased, and the market should gradually adapt to the normal changes of RMB exchange rate fluctuation.
19, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 6.5859, a two-week low, down 24 1 basis point from the previous trading day. "On that day, a lot of foreign exchange buying entered the market, so the market fell back." Foreign exchange traders told reporters.
On the same day, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was lowered by11basis point, reaching a two-week low of 6.5530, ending two days of continuous gains.
In the view of Li Liuyang, a foreign exchange analyst, after large customers purchase foreign exchange, the motivation for subsequent foreign exchange purchases will be reduced, and the vicinity of 6.6 is a good time to settle foreign exchange. After that, the trend of RMB exchange rate will mainly refer to the change of a basket of currencies against the US dollar. Overall, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced.
Lu Lei, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said recently that the RMB exchange rate will be more flexible, and the direction of improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism based on market supply and demand will not change. The specific operation is to persist in optimizing the formation mechanism of the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar with "closing exchange rate+exchange rate change of a basket of currencies", and at the same time guide the real economy to use more relevant currencies for trade, investment and settlement.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, analyzed that RMB exchange rate will enhance two-way fluctuation, reduce the correlation between RMB exchange rate and dollar fluctuation, and more follow the wide two-way fluctuation of a basket of currencies.
Li Liuyang told me that the current RMB exchange rate has risen and fallen, and it is already in a state of "clean floating". Xie, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, believes that the RMB exchange rate is "clean floating" and the direction of fluctuation with market supply and demand is very clear. The exchange rate will be more flexible in the future, and the exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies will remain basically stable.
What preparations should enterprises make in the face of wide fluctuation of exchange rate? Increasing flexibility is the normal state of the future exchange rate market, and enterprises and banks will gradually learn how to manage exchange rate risks from the flexible market.
It is understood that RMB exchange rate fluctuations have different effects on different enterprises and need to be treated differently. Exchange rate fluctuations have little impact on purely domestic enterprises, but have a greater impact on foreign trade enterprises, especially private enterprises, which are generally smaller in scale and more sensitive to price changes. There will be signs of normalization of exchange rate fluctuations in the future, and the sooner enterprises adapt, the better.
"As can be seen from the import and export data in August. In August, the export trade denominated in RMB increased by 6.9% year-on-year, which was lower than the previous value and expectation, while the import trade increased by 14.4% and the trade surplus narrowed by 14%. " The insider said.
In the view of a foreign exchange trader of a big bank, in order to cope with the risk of a continuously rising exchange rate, export enterprises can ask importers to pay the goods in advance, increase the proportion of advance payment, or settle the accounts with RMB pricing, or directly purchase foreign goods with foreign exchange, convert the currency into commodities, and hedge against exchange rate fluctuations. For importing enterprises, they can delay payment or increase the purchase of imported raw materials to improve their performance and financial indicators.
In addition, "when signing a product sales contract, you also need to deal with the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. When enterprises transfer funds and products, there may be a mismatch between time and space. At this time, enterprises can hedge through financial derivatives such as foreign exchange options, futures, forward transactions or CCS. " Insiders told reporters that the exchange rate compensation mechanism can also be stipulated in the contract, for example, when the exchange rate fluctuates above 10%, additional compensation or re-pricing is required.
For individuals, "in the case of two-way exchange rate fluctuations, residents should not buy foreign exchange speculatively." The risk of unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the gambling exchange rate is greater. "Industry insiders suggest that foreign exchange should be purchased according to actual demand. If you need to study abroad or travel, you can purchase foreign exchange by stages at the right time.