1. The price of mineral products plummeted and the economic growth slowed down.
Affected by the global financial crisis, the price of mineral products plummeted. Only in June+10, 2008, the price of oil in Russian domestic market decreased by 42.5%, the price of petroleum products decreased by 13.5%, the price of mineral exploitation decreased by 20.8%, the price of production and processing decreased by 2. 1%, the price of metal alloy decreased by 8.4% and the price of cement decreased by 3./kloc. The general decline in raw material prices led to a 6.6% drop in the wholesale price of industrial products, a record high. At the same time, the engine that drives Russian economic growth is weak. From June 5438+0 to June 5438+00, investment in fixed assets decreased by 50% year-on-year, and the economic growth rate slowed down significantly. 5438+ 10 The GDP growth rate dropped to 5.9% in June, and the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade lowered its forecast of GDP growth rate in 2008 from 7.8% to 7.3%. The World Bank predicts that Russia's GDP growth rate will be 6% in 2008, 3% in 2009 and 2.3% in 2009 by OECD. Although economic growth is declining, the inflation rate is still high. From the beginning of the year to the beginning of 65438+February, the inflation rate was 12.3%, which exceeded the annual expected value of 1 1.8%. According to the customs data of the Russian Federation, in the first three quarters of 2008, Russia exported 1.82 1 million tons of oil, down 5.6% compared with the same period of last year, of which 1.93 million tons were exported in September, down 4.2% compared with the same period of last year. Although the export volume decreased, the average price of "Ural" brand oil in the international market rose 10. 1% in the first three quarters, and the export amount still increased. The proportion of oil exports in Russia's foreign trade rose to 36%, compared with 34.5% in the same period last year. 49.9% of the oil mined in Russia is exported. In September 2008, the actual average price of Russian oil exports was $702.8 per ton, down 13.8% from August. From June to August, the average monthly price of Russian oil export is:10.65438+613 USD; February $617; $663 in March; $697.5 in April; $764.6 in May; $833.8 in June; $887.4 in July; August 8 15.7 USD.
In fact, Russia has a clear assessment of the risk of falling oil prices: when the price of Ural brand oil drops to 70 dollars per barrel, it needs to start the reserve fund to supplement the budget revenue; 60 dollars, current account deficit, budget deficit; 50 dollars, the budget deficit exceeds1%of GDP; 40 dollars, the capital account surplus is difficult to make up for the current account deficit, and the balance of payments is in deficit. If $40 a barrel lasts for two years, the Russian economy will face recession. The Russian government believes that the reasonable level of "Urals" should be $65 per barrel, and the current oil price is obviously low. Oil is the most important mineral product exported by Russia. The price of Ural brand oil is the basis for Russia to forecast economic growth and budget revenue. On June165438+1October 14, 2008, the price of "Ural" futures on the Russian trading system fell below $50 for the first time, once falling below the psychological bottom line of $40 per barrel, causing great economic losses to Russia.
The collapse of mineral products prices has made Russian mining enterprises face debt difficulties. According to the statistics of the Russian central bank, as of July 2008 1, the foreign debts of enterprises and banks amounted to 489.2 billion US dollars, of which only 33.9 billion US dollars of foreign long-term investment did not need to be repaid. The Russian central bank conservatively predicts that it will need to repay $654.38+063 billion by the end of 2009. Russian independent newspapers 10 and 14 said that by the end of 2009, enterprises and banks had to repay foreign debts of $295 billion with interest of $39 billion. In 2008, Russia spent $50 billion from its foreign exchange reserves, which were specially lent to enterprises and commercial banks to repay $47.5 billion of foreign debts due before the end of the year. Russian energy enterprises are heavily in debt, of which the debt of Gazprom is 6 1 billion dollars, that of Russian oil company is 2 1 billion dollars, and that of Russian oil pipeline transportation company is 7.7 billion dollars.
2. Suspend the construction of new projects and delay the tender offer.
The global financial crisis has made it difficult for many Russian mining companies to obtain loans. Coupled with the decline in mine prices, enterprises lost money and had to give up the original planned new projects. Ural Mining Metal Company, Russia's second largest copper and zinc producer, will suspend the construction of new projects, but the projects currently under construction will continue. In 2007, UMMC Company indicated that it would invest US$ 65.438+300 million in 2007 ~ 2065.438+00 to increase the production capacity of its Ural Copper Smelter by 37% to 500,000 tons. Russian copper company, Russia's third largest copper producer, said it would terminate its joint venture with UMMC to establish a zinc plant with an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons. Russian mining giant Norilsk Nickel also postponed its bid for Lyon Mining. Leon Mining Company produced 34,090 tons of nickel in 2006, making it the tenth largest nickel producer in the world. In 2007, the company's nickel output rose to 43,000 tons. Norilsk Nickel Company produces 240,000 tons of nickel every year, which is the second largest nickel producer in the world, second only to Brazil's Vale Company, which produces about 250,000 tons of nickel every year.
3. Delay the pace of overseas listing and adjust the financing direction.
The world aluminum giant Rusal United originally planned to go public in 2008. At the same time, the company is considering moving its initial public offering headquarters from London to Hongkong, China. The Russian-Aluminum Alliance is the largest producer of aluminum and alumina in the world. According to the statistical data in 2007, the output of Russian-aluminum combined electrolytic aluminum accounts for 12% of the world's total output, and alumina accounts for 15% of the world's total output. In March 2007, it was formed by the merger of alumina assets of the former world's third largest aluminum company Rusal, the world's largest aluminum company 10 Siberian Ural Aluminum Company and Swiss Glencore Company, and employed more than 654.38+million employees in five continents 19 countries around the world.
Due to the rapid development of China's economy, Rusal attaches great importance to its cooperation with China, which is also reflected in all aspects including the capital market. Russia and Aluminum jointly own bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum refinery and downstream business of aluminum products, with annual net profit of $5 billion to $7 billion in the past three years. At present, all the investment plans of the company in the world are about $2.5 billion to $3 billion per year. Russia and aluminum jointly predict that by 20 13, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity will increase by more than 2 million tons, and the production capacity will be about 4.2 million tons in 2007. 79% of the electricity used in the joint production of electrolytic aluminum by Russia and aluminum comes from hydropower, and the electricity price is about $0.03 per kWh.