The stock market refers to the stock market, which refers to the place where issued stocks are transferred, traded and circulated, including the exchange market and the OTC market. Do you know anything about the stock market? Bian Xiao compiled a stock market analysis here for your reference. I hope everyone will gain something in the reading process!
Factors affecting the trend of stock price
The main factors affecting the stock price include the fundamentals of listed companies, national macroeconomic policies, market supply and demand, stock technical indicators and so on.
Fundamentals include: macroeconomic operation and basic information of listed companies. Macro-economic operation reflects the overall operating performance of listed companies and lays a background for their further development, so macro-economy is closely related to listed companies and their corresponding stock prices.
The fundamentals of listed companies include financial status, profitability, market share, management system and talent composition. Corporate profit is the basic guarantee for investors to gain income, and it is also the key consideration factor affecting the stock price. However, corporate profits only provide the basis for dividend distribution, and investors need the cooperation of dividend policies of listed companies to get real return on investment.
The impact of national macroeconomic policies on stock prices mainly comes from the degree of market capital easing, tax expenditures of listed companies and borrowing costs.
The influence of market supply and demand on the stock market is reflected in the comparison between the amount of funds and the number of stocks in the stock market. If the return on investment provided by the securities market is high enough to make up for the risks in the securities market, there will be a large amount of off-exchange funds injected, and the stock price and stock index will rise. On the contrary, the stock price and stock index will fall.
Technical aspects refer to technical indicators, trend patterns and K-line combinations that reflect price changes. There are three assumptions in technical analysis: that is, market behavior contains all information; Price changes have a certain trend or law; History will repeat itself. Considering that market behavior contains all information, macro-level and policy-level factors can be ignored, and that price changes regularly and history will repeat itself, it is easy to judge the future trend with historical transaction data.
The reason why technical indicators can affect the stock price trend is that widely used technical indicators are easy to get unanimous approval or greater recognition and trust from investors. Under the influence of convergence psychology, when a certain technical index reaches a certain position, investors will invariably adopt the same investment strategy. It can be seen that technical indicators often affect the stock price with the help of investors' psychological factors, while macroeconomic conditions or the situation of listed companies directly affect the stock price.
macroanalysis
The influence of exchange rate changes on the stock market
The foreign exchange market is closely related to the stock price. Generally speaking, if a country's currency is the basic policy of appreciation, the stock price will rise. Once its currency depreciates, its share price will fall, so the foreign exchange market has a great influence on the stock market.
Before the global stock price plummeted in June, 1987, 10, the United States suddenly announced the budget deficit and foreign trade deficit, and claimed to continue to adjust the exchange rate of the US dollar, which led to widespread panic about the US economy and the world economic prospects. Accompanied by other reasons, it led to the formation of this stock price crash.
With the rapid development of contemporary international trade, the exchange rate has more and more influence on a country's economy, and any country's economy is affected by exchange rate changes to varying degrees. With the deepening of China's opening to the outside world and the increasing opening of world trade, the influence of exchange rate on China's stock market will become more and more obvious.
The influence of economic cycle on stock market
The stock market is a window to reflect the national economic situation, and the rise and fall of the stock market in turn affects the quality and speed of national economic development. However, fundamentally speaking, it is the development of the national economy that determines the development of the stock market, not the other way around. Therefore, the development of the national economy and some factors that have an important influence on the development of the national economy will have a great impact on the stock market and all kinds of stocks existing in the stock market. Investors and analysts must be aware of these functions, otherwise they will not be able to make correct investment decisions. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the impact of macroeconomics on the stock market.
Among the market factors that affect the change of stock price, the change of macroeconomic cycle, or the change of prosperity, is one of the most important factors, which has great influence on the operation of enterprises and stock price, and is the big market of stock market. Therefore, the correlation between economic cycle and stock price can not be ignored by investors.
The economic cycle includes four stages: recession, crisis, recovery and prosperity. Generally speaking, during the economic recession, the stock price will gradually fall; During the crisis, the stock price fell to the lowest point; When the economy begins to recover, the stock price will gradually pick up; In the boom, the stock price rose to the highest point. The specific reason for this change is that when the economy began to decline, the products of enterprises were unsalable, and the profits decreased accordingly, which prompted enterprises to reduce production and led to the continuous reduction of dividends. Shareholders holding shares sold off because of poor stock returns, which made the stock price fall. When the economic recession has reached the economic crisis, the whole economic life is in a state of paralysis, a large number of enterprises have closed down, and stock holders have sold their stocks because of their pessimistic attitude towards the situation, thus causing the whole stock market to plummet and the market to fall into depression and chaos. After the lowest point of the economic cycle, there is a slow recovery momentum. With the adjustment of economic structure, commodities begin to have a certain sales volume, and enterprises can begin to distribute some dividends and bonuses to shareholders. Shareholders gradually felt that holding shares was profitable, so they bought them one after another, which made the stock price slowly pick up. When the economy reached the stage of prosperity from recovery, the commodity production capacity and output of enterprises increased greatly, the commodity sales were in good condition, enterprises began to make a lot of profits, dividends and bonuses increased accordingly, and stock prices rose to the highest point.
It should be noted that the economic cycle affects the stock price changes, but the change cycles of the two are not completely synchronized. Usually, no matter at which stage of the economic cycle, the change of stock price is always one step ahead of the actual economic cycle. That is, before the recession, the stock price has begun to fall, and before the recovery, the stock price has rebounded; When the economic cycle has not yet entered the peak stage, the stock price has peaked; The economy is still in recession and the stock market has begun to rebound from the bottom. This is because the fluctuation of stock price includes investors' expectations of economic trends and investors' psychological reactions.
According to the economic cycle, the strategic choice of stock investment is: the investment strategy in recession is mainly to protect capital, and investors often take the form of holding cash (savings deposits) and short-term deposit securities at this stage to avoid investment losses in recession, so as to enter the stock market in time when the economy recovers; During the economic boom, when the operating conditions of most industries and companies improve and profits increase, even retail investors who blindly follow up without understanding the stock market analysis can often make money from stock investment.
Of course, there are exceptions. For example, generally speaking, there will be a large amount of funds flowing into the stock market during the boom period when the enterprise's income is expected to increase or the enterprise will increase its capital due to the expansion of its scale. But during the depression, funds did not flow out of the stock market, but flowed into the stock market. Especially during this period, the government expanded financial payment to promote prosperity, and the company did not make new investment because of excess equipment, so there were a lot of idle monetary funds. Once these funds flow into the stock market, the buying and selling of the stock market and the rise of prices have nothing to do with the income of enterprises, but are speculative to some extent. In addition, when investing in stocks, we should not only understand the trend of the whole market, but also understand the performance of different kinds of stocks under different market conditions. Some stocks performed well at the beginning of the upward trend, such as energy, machinery, electronic equipment and other stocks; Others can exert strong resilience at the end of the downward trend, such as public utility stocks and stocks in the consumer goods sector with less consumption elasticity. In short, investors should also consider the characteristics of various stocks in order to make specific choices under different market conditions.
Influence of interest rate change on stock market
Among all the factors that affect the stock market and stock price, the most acute one is the financial factor. Among the financial factors, the change of interest rate level has the most direct and rapid impact on the stock market. Generally speaking, interest rates fall and stock prices rise; When the interest rate rises, the stock price will fall. Therefore, the level of interest rates and the relationship between interest rates and the stock market have also become an important basis for stock investors to buy and sell stocks.
(1) Why does the rise and fall of interest rate and the change of stock price show the above-mentioned inverse motion relationship? There are three main reasons.
The rising interest rate will not only increase the borrowing cost of the company, but also make it difficult for the company to obtain the necessary funds. In this way, the company has to reduce the production scale, and the reduction of production scale will inevitably reduce the company's future profits. Therefore, the stock price will fall; On the contrary, the stock price will rise.
(2) When the interest rate rises, the discount rate used by investors to evaluate the stock value will also rise, so the stock value will decline, which will also lead to a corresponding decline in the stock price; On the contrary, if the interest rate falls, the stock price will rise.
(3) When the interest rate rises, some funds will shift from investing in the stock market to saving banks and buying bonds, which will reduce the market demand for stocks and make the stock price fall. On the other hand, when the interest rate falls, the profitability of savings decreases, and some funds may flow back to the stock market, thus expanding the demand for stocks and making the stock price rise.
It is a general situation that the above interest rate is inversely proportional to the stock price movement, and we can't make this absolute. In the history of stock market development, there are also some special situations. When the situation is good and the stock market rises sharply, the adjustment of interest rate will not play a great role in controlling the stock price. Similarly, when the stock market plummets, even if there is an adjustment policy of falling interest rates, it may make the stock price rebound weak. In the United States 1978, interest rates and share prices rose at the same time. There were two main reasons for this abnormal phenomenon at that time: first, many financial institutions at that time had no confidence in the ability of the US government to maintain the status of the US dollar in the world and control inflation; Second, at that time, the stock price had fallen to a very low level, far from the actual price of the stock, thus a large number of foreign capital flowed to the US stock market, causing the stock price to rise. In Hong Kong, the same thing happened in 198 1. Of course, this phenomenon that interest rates and stock prices rise and fall at the same time is still relatively rare so far.
Analysis of articles related to the stock market;
★ Market analysis
★ Understand the stock market.
★ Introduction to stock market operation
★ Buffett's stock valuation method encyclopedia
★ Knowledge of main pressure plates in stock trading
★ Knowledge of stock capital analysis
★ Ten stocks of Buffett's heavy positions
★ Experience of stock investment celebrities
★ Introduction of stock operation methods
★ Interpretation of Basic Foreign Exchange Knowledge