Preference price difference is more important than preference value.
I once wrote an article devoted to the phenomenon of high valuation of A shares, arguing that liquidity premium is an important reason for the high or low valuation. If a market is highly liquid, the premium level (the difference between the expected rate of return and the risk-free interest rate) can be relatively low. In the stock market, turnover rate can be used to reflect liquidity. The turnover rate of A-share market is the highest in the world for a long time, especially 20 15. The turnover rate of main board is more than 6 times (the ratio of annual turnover to average tradable market value), small and medium-sized board is more than 9 times, and the growth enterprise market is more than 12 times. Moreover, the valuation level of GEM is higher than that of SME board and motherboard.
Since the beginning of this year, the turnover rate of A shares has dropped sharply, with the main board down to 2.6 times and the Growth Enterprise Market less than 7 times. At the same time, the stock price has also fallen sharply, but the turnover rate is still higher than that of the major global stock markets. Excluding banking stocks, the valuation of A shares is still much higher than that of major global markets.
The domestic real estate transaction volume is also very large. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales of commercial housing nationwide increased by 55.9% from June to April this year compared with the same period of last year. Because there is no summary data of the national real estate transaction market, it should also increase by more than 50% compared with the same period last year. From a global perspective, China's real estate transaction volume is also the largest, and only Beijing's real estate transaction volume exceeds that of Japan.
If a market is active, it shows the rationality of its existence. If it is over-active, it shows that it is highly speculative, and the purpose of speculation is to obtain spread income. This is the case in the stock market and futures market, and so is the real estate market. The stock market turnover rate is so high that it is essentially short-term speculation, with the aim of obtaining spread income. There are two main purposes of buying a house, one is to live by oneself, and the other is to feel the same investment and profit. About two-thirds of domestic households' assets are allocated in real estate, which is much higher than that of residents in most countries. This also shows that domestic residents' preference for real estate investment is far better than other financial assets. At the same time, the problem of overvaluation of housing prices is bound to exist.
An authoritative person in People's Daily said in an interview, "Houses are for people to live in. This position cannot be deviated from. It is necessary to' destocking' through people's urbanization, rather than' destocking' through leverage. " At the same time, he also mentioned the "real estate bubble" for the first time, indicating the high-level concern about high housing prices.
The preference for obtaining spreads is consistent with the preference for trading. Is this related to the cultural characteristics of East Asian countries? For example, a global financial center can be regarded as a trading platform. East Asian countries and regions include Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore (belonging to the Chinese community), Shanghai and Shenzhen. In addition, Macau's gambling revenue is also the highest in the world, far exceeding Las Vegas. As the largest Internet company in China, BAT has actually established its position in China and even the world by building a big platform. In contrast, there are only a handful of super enterprises with state-owned brand in China. Therefore, China people's preference for pursuing price difference is greater than creating value.
The popularity of "invisible fair exchange" has raised asset prices.
Rigid redemption exists not only in the fields of trust products, corporate bonds and other fixed-income products, but also in other asset fields such as stock market and real estate. For example, the existence of shell resource value is essentially "invisible only exchange", that is, even the worst shell company will maintain a high P/E ratio and P/B ratio because of the possibility of potential asset injection. In China stock market for 26 years, there are only a handful of companies delisted, and the average increase of small-cap stocks with poor performance is far greater than the index increase.
So, is there an "invisible cash exchange" in the real estate market? It does exist. For example, the phenomenon of real estate inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities has long existed. If sales are reduced according to the principle of marketization, inventory can be resolved. But in fact, the local government will intervene in housing prices, and early buyers will also oppose the sale at a reduced price. Therefore, real estate developers have multiple constraints in the sale of commercial housing.
However, the biggest "invisible redemption" comes from the support of government departments to the real estate industry. For example, the property tax pilot was launched on 20 10 and has not been implemented so far. At the beginning of this year, in order to promote real estate destocking, the down payment ratio of the first suite was also reduced. Why should the government support the development of the real estate industry? This is because real estate investment can drive the most industries, such as steel, cement, nonferrous metals, chemicals, household appliances, furniture and so on. And in the case of smooth commercial housing sales, real estate investment can bring considerable cash flow returns. At present, the cash flow return of infrastructure investment is very small, but the debt is growing rapidly. This is also the reason why it is difficult to promote PPP projects.
According to statistics, only 18% of all property buyers in China buy houses through bank loans, which is far below the level of developed countries. Moreover, at present, the balance of real estate mortgage loans in China only accounts for about 65,438+00% of the total residential market value, which is also very low. Therefore, in the case of low leverage of residents, encouraging residents to buy a house can make residents deleverage and let enterprises and local governments deleverage. This has room, but the premise is that house prices cannot fall sharply.
Because the current market economy system in China is different from that in the West, the power of the government is still relatively large. Therefore, the "invisible exchange" actually reduces the market credit risk, thus greatly reducing the level of credit premium. Although the government has been trying to break the rigid exchange rate, it seems that it does not support breaking the rigid exchange rate as far as the current system is concerned. What's more, under the established goal of steady growth, it is necessary to maintain a loose monetary policy to support low interest rates, and at the same time, fiscal policy must be active.
In the case of controllable exchange rate and moderate inflation, house prices can be supported.
At the beginning of 20 16, I was worried about two things, one was the depreciation of RMB, and the other was the jump of inflation. At present, under the condition of capital control, the initiative of devaluation lies with the central bank. Therefore, with the expectation of raising interest rates in the United States, the central bank recently lowered the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, although the expectation of RMB depreciation exists for a long time, it seems unlikely that capital will flow out in large quantities. Second, inflation seems moderate, and the price increase of vegetables and pork at the beginning of the year is seasonal or cyclical. Due to the low inflationary pressure, the probability of monetary policy tightening is low. As long as the interest rate does not go up, it will not be bad for housing prices.
Judging from my judgment, the central bank will adopt a gradual depreciation method to regulate the exchange rate, or "three retreats and two retreats", boiling frogs in warm water, and at the same time cracking down on speculative funds, so that speculative funds are at a loss. The advantage of this is to reduce the total scale of domestic foreign exchange outflow, and at the same time, it can gradually increase the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, thus alleviating the risk of capital outflow caused by depreciation expectation.
At present, this round of RMB depreciation has not triggered the shock of domestic and foreign capital markets, which shows that under the condition of capital control, gradual depreciation is feasible and the impact on the economy will be relatively small. At the same time, for the real estate market, a small depreciation and moderate inflation will support housing prices, because holding real estate is also a means of maintaining value in response to inflation and depreciation, provided that there is no obvious capital outflow.
Why is there no serious inflation in the case of long-term excessive currency? According to my long-term observation, the correlation between CPI and M2 is not very big, but it is very related to GDP. At present, in order to avoid the decline of GDP growth rate, monetary expansion has been adopted to stabilize growth. However, due to China's long-term catch-up strategy, total supply exceeds total demand, investment growth exceeds consumption growth, and nominal GDP growth exceeds nominal disposable income growth. This is the reason why the scissors gap between M2 growth rate and GDP growth rate widens, and it is also the reason why CPI can't go up.
A market economy with governance can reduce the probability of crisis.
Looking at the global economy after the 1990s, the frequency of global or local economic crises is much lower than that in previous history, because all major economies have strengthened the government's economic regulation and adopted countercyclical policies. Relatively speaking, China implements a socialist market economy system, so the government plays a greater role in the economy than western countries.
However, everything has two sides, such as how to deal with efficiency and fairness in economic growth, and there is never a perfect solution. Similarly, through empirical research, it is found that in an economy with a high degree of marketization, the overall efficiency of enterprises is higher, but the anti-crisis ability is poor; In a highly administrative economy, the overall efficiency of enterprises is low, but the ability to resist crisis is strong. For example, in the past 20 years, Japan and the United States have experienced two economic recessions, but France has not. Similarly, nothing happened in China.
(The above answers were published on 20 16-05-3 1. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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