Seeing that the media has many explanations, the basic meaning is that China and Russia are digging the corner of the United States. "Petrodollars" is the basis of dollar hegemony. China and Russia start from themselves and no longer use dollars in oil transactions. After this opening up, if it continues, less and less dollars will be used for oil trading or energy trading on a larger scale. At the point of qualitative change, the hegemony of the dollar will loosen or even collapse. But for the general energy exporting countries, it is not a question of whether to settle in dollars, but a question of dare. Because the United States has been using its military hegemony to safeguard its "petrodollar" and dollar hegemony. Therefore, if we want to make a difference, we must start from a big country like China and Russia.
Sino-Russian energy trade abandoned the dollar, and the United States dared not say anything but grumble. After all, it is inconceivable and impossible to coerce China or Russia to use dollars in energy transactions by military means. However, for many people, it makes sense to trade in euros instead of dollars. Will the RMB replace the US dollar as the world currency in the future? Why not start now? Sino-Russian energy bills are not traded in dollars, so why not use RMB? Even using rubles makes sense. So some people are explaining that this is a trick played by China and Russia, which is a bit "conspiracy". Through such an operation, it can split the United States and the European Union. After all, the EU has long had the idea of making the euro a world currency. In this process, it was suppressed by the United States, and some even thought that the United States did not hesitate to provoke the Kosovo war in order to suppress the euro. Now that Sino-Russian energy trade is settled in euros, the EU must be secretly happy, but the United States is not. But who are you going to sanction? Sanctions against the EU?
This explanation sounds very logical and interesting. But in my opinion, this "conspiracy theory" gives too little consideration to China and Russia. After all, China and Russia are both world powers. Making such an arrangement will only be an open plan. I can't do this little trick, little "conspiracy"
65438+ 1 100 million tons of oil sounds like a lot, but it will be completed within 10 year, which means 65438+ 1 100 million tons per year. 1 10 million tons is converted into euros, which is exactly 1 100 billion euros. This is only a small part of the global energy trade. Such an amount is far from inciting the hegemony of the dollar, but it can only be said that it is a step in the long March.
In fact, from the point of view of collusion, settlement in euros is also beneficial to both China and Russia. Because the euro is also a freely convertible currency after all, Europe and the European Union have also established an international settlement mechanism, which is very convenient in normal bilateral trade. Using the euro as the settlement currency is done through the settlement system of the European Union, which can bypass the settlement system of the US dollar. Once the United States imposes economic sanctions on Russia or China, the Americans cannot control it, or it is not easy to control it. If they want to control it, they must rely on the EU. At the same time, both China and Russia have huge trade volume with the EU. China's trade surplus with the EU exceeds 1000 billion euros a year, so many euros are always spent and used; At present, almost all the dollars in Russia's foreign exchange reserves have been liquidated, so it is obviously more convenient and safe to use the euro as the remaining international payment currency. Therefore, in this sense, the use of euro settlement is beneficial and convenient for both China and Russia.
For China, we are not trying to inherit the US dollar hegemony and realize the RMB hegemony. What we want is economic globalization and multipolarization of the international pattern. Under such an envisaged framework, it is impossible for the world currency to be only the US dollar. The euro is now the most widely used international currency except the US dollar, and the EU is now trying to establish an international payment and settlement system for the euro. At this time, China and Russia will definitely help divide the venue.
But this is not done in secret. I'll tell you clearly. Didn't the United States say before that if Russia used force against Ukraine, it would be "unbearable sanctions"? In fact, what is the nature of this "intolerable sanction"? Is to kick Russia out of the dollar payment and settlement system, so that you can't complete payment and settlement in international trade. Now China and Russia choose to pay energy bills in euros, which can be said to be a wonderful move.
Is it possible for the EU to impose extreme sanctions on Russia or China under the coercion and pressure of the United States in the future?
At that time, you couldn't pay in euros, could you? It doesn't matter. Because of this, you Europe first strangled your euro and fundamentally destroyed your credit as a world currency. This depends on whether the EU is willing to do it. Dare to do it? Even if you know, it's nothing. For China and Russia, agreements signed on paper can be signed or amended. If neither the dollar nor the euro can complete the payment and settlement, then we will settle in local currency. Can't be more, even if it's barter. Barter trade is not something we haven't done. But all this is not a secret conspiracy, but an open plan on the table. In the United States and the European Union, you can clearly see such a thing. What shall we do? I'll leave it to you.