With the economy becoming the focus of people's lives, an important indicator in the economic field-GDP (gross domestic product) has attracted more and more attention from the society. Although most people have heard of GDP, I'm afraid not many people really know it. A few days ago, it was reported that about 10%-20% of China's GDP is an invalid cost. What exactly is going on? The reporter interviewed Dr. Xu Xianchun, Director of the National Economic Accounting Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
What is the internal meaning?
Xu Xianchun said that GDP is the most concerned economic statistics in the macro economy, because it is considered as the most important indicator to measure the development of the national economy. GDP is the abbreviation of gross domestic product calculated at market price, which refers to the final result of production activities of all permanent units in a country (or region) in a certain period of time. It involves economic activities and is true. Generally speaking, GDP has three forms, namely, value form, income form and product form. From the perspective of value form, it is the difference between the value of all goods and services produced by all residential units and the value of all non-fixed assets goods and services invested in the same period, that is, the sum of the added value of all residential units; From the perspective of income form, it is the sum of income directly created by all resident units in a certain period; From the product form, it is the final use of goods and services minus the import of goods and services.
Concepts should not be confused.
In view of recent reports that the invalid cost in China's market transactions accounts for at least 10%-20% of GDP, Director Xu said that the National Bureau of Statistics, as the authoritative organization for GDP release, has never published this data so far, and the invalid cost is a personal capital, and the National Bureau of Statistics has never used this term when counting GDP. Although omissions and repetitions are inevitable in accounting GDP, it is not appropriate to measure it by invalid cost. At least the concept of invalid cost is not involved in the calculation of the three forms of GDP.
Related reports also mentioned that the direct loss caused by debt evasion in China is about 654.38+08 billion yuan each year; According to the statistics of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, the direct losses caused by contract fraud are about 5.5 billion yuan, as well as the losses caused by inferior product quality and counterfeiting and selling fakes are at least 200 billion yuan, the financial expenses increased by triangular debts and cash transactions are about 200 billion yuan, the expenses caused by unreasonable fees and unnecessary examination and approval outside taxes are about 300 billion yuan, and there are also losses caused by tax evasion and discovered corruption. It is these factors that lead to ineffective costs accounting for at least 65.44% of GDP.
In this regard, Xu Xianchun said that the concepts mentioned in the above report are very confusing and are not the same as GDP, such as triangular debts, losses caused by debt evasion and fraud. Usually, the data we use to calculate GDP come from statistical departments, financial departments and related departments, such as financial and insurance systems, railway systems, civil aviation systems, post and telecommunications systems, etc. The data of these departments will not discuss the concept of invalid cost. Of course, GDP is not everything, and not all values can depend on GDP, otherwise it will easily lead to chaos.
How is the GDP determined?
How does the National Bureau of Statistics publish GDP data every year? Xu Xianchun said that GDP calculation needs to go through the following processes: preliminary estimation process, preliminary verification process and final verification process. The preliminary estimation process is generally carried out at the end of each year and the beginning of the following year. The annual GDP data it gets is only a preliminary figure, which needs to be verified after obtaining more sufficient information. The preliminary verification procedure is generally carried out in the second quarter of the following year. The GDP data obtained by preliminary verification is relatively accurate, but GDP accounting still needs a lot of important data, and the corresponding data needs further verification. The final verification process is generally carried out in the fourth quarter of the second year. At this time, all kinds of statistical data, final accounting data and administrative data needed and collected for GDP accounting are basically available. Compared with the previous step, it uses more comprehensive and detailed data, so this GDP data is more accurate.
In addition, GDP data also needs to go through a historical data adjustment process, that is, when new data sources, new classifications, more accurate accounting methods or more reasonable accounting principles are discovered or produced, historical data should be adjusted to make GDP comparable every year, which is an international practice. For example, the United States adjusted the historical data of 1 1 between 1929 and 1999.
In short, the GDP published in each time period has its specific meaning and specific value, so we can't doubt that there is something wrong with the statistical data just because the data published in different time periods are different. Of course, China's GDP calculation system also has some shortcomings. For example, the statistical accounting system originally adopted by China in the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries has lagged behind the development of the times in many places.