Last week, many Fed officials made hawkish remarks intensively to guide market expectations, and investors found that the interest rate hike in March was approaching. Judging from the reaction of the interest rate futures market in the past two weeks, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the probability of raising interest rates by the US dollar has risen sharply.
Investors are most concerned about the impact of the US dollar interest rate hike on China. From the impact path, on the one hand, the US dollar interest rate hike affects China's exchange rate and inflation, increasing the pressure of RMB depreciation, and at the same time, through the input and transmission of prices, increasing the formation of inflation expectations, thus forming constraints on China's monetary policy. On the other hand, the expectation of US dollar interest rate hike is heating up, and the change of currency spread will cause capital flow, which will lead to the tightening of domestic liquidity. The recent domestic open market operation also confirms this monetary policy orientation.
After the Spring Festival, the money from financial institutions was gradually put into the market, and the shortage of funds in the market eased, and the yield of 10-year government bonds also declined slightly. On the whole, the central bank's open market operation is mainly based on net withdrawal of funds, and the recent 10 trading days are in a state of continuous withdrawal of funds, which makes the yield of 10-year government bonds return to some extent. As of the close of March 8, the yield was 3.4 1%, only lower than the stage highs around the Spring Festival.
The liquidity change of the money market has the most obvious influence on the market, but under better expected management, the market volatility is expected to weaken. The last two interest rate hikes of the US dollar occurred in June 65438+February 17, June 20 16 and June 65438+February 15 respectively. Judging from the impact on A-shares, before the US dollar raised interest rates, the A-share market fell slightly, reflecting investors' concerns about liquidity shocks. However, after raising interest rates, the market rose slightly. Recently, the collective voice of Fed officials also hopes to manage it well and minimize the impact on the market.
From the perspective of China's capital market, the recent foreign exchange reserve data has reduced the expected impact of the US dollar interest rate hike. The data of foreign exchange reserves in February released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on March 7 was $300,565,438+billion, an increase of $6.9 billion from the previous month, ending the downward trend for seven consecutive months. Foreign exchange reserves have returned to the $3 trillion mark, and investors expect the liquidity impact brought about by the US dollar interest rate hike to weaken. The main driving force for the rebound of foreign exchange reserves is that since June 5438+ 10, the risk appetite of global funds for emerging markets has recovered, and the scale of funds flowing into emerging markets has increased. China is an important allocation area of funds.
It is worth noting that although the impact of the US dollar interest rate hike in March on the A-share market may not be too great, it will give a clear signal that the pace of US dollar interest rate hike is expected to accelerate in the future, and the expectation of raising interest rates three or four times in 20 17 will be strengthened.
Judging from the impact on the A-share market, the focus of the current market lies in the tightening degree of liquidity and the verification of economic recovery. According to the above analysis, the expectation of future liquidity tightening is clear. Aside from external influences, under the goal of financial deleveraging and risk prevention, China's neutral and tight monetary policy tone has a strong continuity. At this time, whether the recovery of economic fundamentals can be continuously verified by data, and the game between economic data and liquidity is an important factor affecting the choice of market direction.