According to the theory of international economics, excessive foreign exchange surplus itself indicates that foreign currency pricing is too high, local currency pricing is too low, and local currency is facing appreciation pressure.
The issue of RMB exchange rate is not only an economic issue, but also an international political issue. Some scholars have pointed out that there are other reasons behind some western countries' frequent calls for RMB appreciation. Some are out of jealousy, some are to divert domestic accusations against the authorities, and some are to win votes from domestic manufacturing industries. For example, western countries simply link the value of RMB with the decline of domestic manufacturing industry, trying to force RMB to appreciate. The reason for the reduction of employment opportunities in the United States is not China, but the invisible hand of global competition. The reasons why foreign countries clamor for RMB appreciation are nothing more than the following: First, the RMB exchange rate is too low. It has been suggested that the RMB exchange rate should be set at about US$ 65,438+0 to 4.2 yuan RMB. Second, China's foreign exchange reserves are too high. Since China's accession to the WTO, there has been no significant increase in imports. On the contrary, the trade surplus has greatly increased. Third, China's massive export of cheap goods has caused deflation in the world. Some people think that China's massive export of cheap products in recent years has led to deflation in Japan, Europe and the United States, and China should let the RMB appreciate and assume corresponding responsibilities in the world economy.
Financial hegemony is an extension of military hegemony and economic hegemony. By virtue of its dominant position in the international monetary system, the United States arbitrarily enforces policies according to its own will, continuously obtains hegemonic profits, and maintains its status as a "financial hegemonic country". By depreciating the dollar, the United States can not only reduce its foreign debt burden, but also reduce its debt by one third every time the dollar depreciates sharply, stimulating its product exports and passing on its various economic crises, which has become the main form of its exploitation of other countries. The fundamental purpose of the RMB exchange rate dispute is that the United States hopes to prevent China goods from entering the United States on a large scale through RMB appreciation. The pressure of RMB appreciation, together with the US anti-dumping policy towards China, constitutes the new content of the Bush administration's adjustment of its economic and trade policy towards China.
In recent years, the discussion about "Asian dollar" has become more and more hot, and who can become the leader of Asian dollar in the future has become an increasingly sensitive topic. As Japan's economy has been in recession for ten years, it is less and less likely that the yen will become the dominant currency in Asia. However, due to the rapid economic growth, China has gradually become the "locomotive" of Asian economic development and the "engine" of world economic development, so the value of RMB has become increasingly obvious, and countries around China have begun to form a "RMB zone", which has aroused Japanese anxiety. Against the background of Japan's surplus of $5 billion with China in 2002, Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa proposed a motion to ask the G-7 to adopt "a document similar to the 1985 agreement on the Yen Plaza" to force the appreciation of the RMB, so as to push the global voice of suppressing the appreciation of the RMB to the peak, with the aim of defeating the challenge of the RMB to the yen through the appreciation of the RMB and ensuring the dominant position of the yen in the future.
In recent years, China's foreign economic friction has become increasingly serious, but it is more confined to micro-economic friction. After China's entry into WTO, China is in the stage of system adjustment, and the system factors are paid more and more attention to in China's economic development. Countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe pressured the appreciation of RMB, which increased the share of institutional economic friction in China's foreign economic friction.
(D) the objective role of RMB appreciation
1, enhancing economic self-circulation ability
When the exchange rate changes reflect the degree of supply and demand of foreign currency, enterprises and families can adjust their strategies in time to use foreign currency more effectively. Moreover, if domestic enterprises take advantage of the cost advantage brought by favorable exchange rate for a long time, the easier it is to earn profits by exporting low-end products, and the less incentive they have to invest in product research and development. This is not conducive to the long-term development of national competitiveness.
2. Increase the freedom of monetary policy.
In order to maintain the fixed exchange rate of RMB against USD, the People's Bank of China must buy USD and put RMB in the market. This makes it difficult for the central bank to control the money supply within the target range. In order to offset the impact of foreign exchange, the People's Bank of China must carry out the so-called "local and foreign currency hedging operation", that is, while buying dollars, it will sell government bonds or central bank bills through open market operations to withdraw funds from the market. Moderately expanding the fluctuation range of RMB can increase the freedom of monetary policy.
3. It is consistent with alleviating the current concern of "economic overheating".
Under the fixed exchange rate, the pressure of appreciation will turn into inflationary pressure-foreign exchange accounts for more money supply, which will bring inflationary pressure. The practice of collecting foreign exchange by issuing central bank bills is unsustainable and will lead to an increase in the financial burden of the government. Expanding the floating range of RMB will ease the transition from appreciation pressure to inflation pressure-RMB appreciation will exert downward pressure on domestic prices, because: 1) the decrease in foreign exchange holdings will lead to a decrease in money supply; 2) Currency appreciation will lower the import price, so it may depress the domestic price.
The reason of RMB appreciation comes from the internal motivation and external pressure of China's economic system. The internal influencing factors are balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves, price level and inflation, economic growth and interest rate level. Since 1994, China's current account of international payments has been in a surplus state. In 2002, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 286.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.55 times compared with 1994. From the perspective of PPP, the price level in China is only 265,438+0% of that in the United States (World Bank, 2002). From the difference of inflation rate, the average inflation rate in the United States since 1998 is 2.23%, and the average inflation rate (CPI) in China is -0.3%, which is 2.53% lower than that in the United States. From 1978 to 2003, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China increased by 9.3% annually. In these 25 years, China's economic growth is undoubtedly the fastest in the world. Judging from the interest rate difference between China and the United States, china interbank offered rate was 2.7% at the end of 2002, and the federal funds rate in the United States was 1.25%. China's short-term interest rate is 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the United States. In China, the RMB deposit rate is also higher than the US dollar deposit rate by 1.4 percentage points. In addition, since the first half of 2002, the dollar has weakened from strong to weak, and the RMB has depreciated with the dollar, which is contrary to the trend of RMB appreciation. With the rapid growth of relative labor productivity in China (1993- 1999), the growth rate of labor productivity in China's manufacturing industry is at least 1.5 percentage points higher than that in the United States. On the contrary, the devaluation of the RMB with the US dollar makes the trade deficit of countries with trade deficits bigger and bigger, which constitutes the external pressure of RMB appreciation.
(Supplement: Since 1982, the United States has experienced a foreign trade deficit every year for more than 20 years. In the 1980s, it was tens of billions of dollars, and in the late 1980s it exceeded 1000 billion dollars or even 200 billion dollars. 2 1 century, the annual trade volume reached 500 billion us dollars. )