Look at the following article: China's economy of 20 1 1. I think China's economy is like a Chinese painting: it looks good from a distance. This angle can also look at some problems of local government financing. From a distance, we know that China's economy has developed rapidly in the past 30 years; In recent years, the financial system is very poor, and the financial system and the government system are not perfect. What will happen to China's economy in 20 1 1 year is not only a major concern of policy makers, but also a question for scholars who study China's economy. Recently, China Research Center for Socialist Market Economy (CCES) of Fudan University and Institute of Finance held a seminar on "20 1 1 Macroeconomic Policy Objectives". After a comprehensive analysis of the gains and losses of macroeconomic policies since the financial crisis, it also gives an overall pulse for China's macro-economy of 20 1 1. Experts made relevant predictions and policy suggestions on several major suspense of China's economy in 201/KLOC-0. Is China's economy facing inflation Yin Xingmin, deputy director of China Socialist Market Economy Research Center of Fudan University: 20 1 1 to 20 12 China will face inflation. Why? Analyze from four levels. First, from the relationship between money stock and income and price, from 2009 to 20 10, the growth rate of m 2 was much higher than the growth rate of income GDP in just two years, which will definitely be reflected by the rise of price level. CPI and PPI are still at a low level, which means that 20 1 1 and 20 12 will be a sustained inflation. Second, the inflation effect of monetary expansion is objective. In 2009, the money stock M2 increased by 27.7% compared with 2008, while the income growth rate was only 9. 1%, which is the money supply shock. The high growth rate of money supply will definitely affect the changes of income and prices. Look at M0 again. M0 refers to the cash in circulation. The growth rate of M0 20 10 in the first quarter was 15.8 1%. This rapid growth indicates another money supply shock. Can inflation be avoided in the next two years? This is inevitable. Why? The money was sent out. Third, what are the factors that affect the change of money stock? Generally speaking, there is a lot of "money" in economic life, and it is easier for enterprises and individuals to obtain various loans. A lot of money is used to chase rare commodities, gold and various assets. The surge in commodity and asset prices has turned into a full-scale inflation. I call it "long-term excess liquidity". Both 20 1 1 and 20 12 will face long-term excess liquidity. Rising prices mean that the speed of money flow continues to rise, the accumulated money supply is more and more, and the liquidity is more rampant. The reason of liquidity is that the cash in circulation grows too fast, which means that the basis of inflation expectation is the excessive issuance of money supply. This is a difficult problem to solve. There will be three changes in public expectations of inflation. The first change is from deposit to currency, from fixed term to current account, from long-term to short-term. What does the central bank do? There are only two ways to raise interest rates and reduce the money supply, but even if this is done, it will still be inflation in a short time of one or two years. Then, when and how much to raise interest rates will affect the liquidity of the entire financial market. Fourth, the output growth effect of money supply shock is decreasing. From the perspective of business cycle theory, the recovery in 2009 was caused by the influence of money supply. So can monetary expansion maintain a high growth rate? The answer is impossible. Both high inflation rates are related to excessive growth and excessive growth of money supply, and it is impossible to promote economic growth for a long time by relying on the growth of money supply. In my opinion, China's economic growth in the next six quarters should be a direct downward trend. Because expansionary monetary policy will inevitably form a hump-shaped change, which is a law. On the whole, we can see that the money supply and GDP growth rate are in the same direction. The influence of money supply is an important reason for economic fluctuation. When the growth rate of money supply decreases, the actual economic growth rate will also fall back to or even lower than the potential growth rate. If we continue to implement loose monetary policy, the result will be higher inflation rate, so I think we must consider moderate tightening from 20 1 1 to 20 12. Therefore, even if the moderately loose monetary policy is withdrawn and the prudent monetary policy is implemented at 20 1 1, it will leave an era of inflation. How to Adjust Economic Growth Mode Chen Xuebin, Executive Vice President of Financial Research Institute of Fudan University: The pressure of RMB appreciation this year is relatively high, mainly caused by the United States. The United States is trying to win over some developed countries and big developing countries to put pressure on China. Can RMB appreciation reduce China's trade imbalance? In my opinion, the source of China's huge trade surplus is not the undervaluation of RMB exchange rate, but the defect of economic growth model. What we need now is not a sharp appreciation of the renminbi, but an accelerated transformation of the mode of economic growth. The transformation of economic growth mode needs to start from both supply and demand. At present, it is particularly important to improve residents' income. Since the reform and opening up, China has formed an economic growth model characterized by low wages, high employment, low consumption, high accumulation, high economic growth, low welfare growth, high trade and capital surplus, high foreign exchange reserves, high resource consumption and high environmental pollution. This model can not be completely denied, but it is necessary in the early stage of reform and opening up. Because there is no financial strength and technology, only people have to tighten their belts, take out products and sell them to foreigners at low prices, earn foreign exchange and buy needed technical equipment. It was necessary to make such sacrifices at that time, but when the economy developed to a certain stage, foreign exchange reserves could no longer be used to buy machinery and equipment. What can we do? We can only lend money to Americans to buy our things. This vicious circle leads people to create material wealth and then sell it to foreigners. What if foreigners have no money to buy it? I'll lend you money to buy it again. If this cycle continues for decades, China will consume all its natural and labor resources. As we all know, although our living standards have improved, we have paid much more than in the past. In the past, a person could support four or five people, but now it may be difficult for a person to support himself and his son. The money you earned depreciated in inflation, and with a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, the foreign exchange reserves also depreciated. Therefore, it is urgent to change the economic model. The key to changing the mode of economic growth and realizing economic rebalancing is to start domestic demand. We have adjusted the economic structure, but we have not done enough to expand domestic demand. Insufficient domestic demand, the most critical problem is to excessively depress the labor price, which is regarded as the advantage of production development. However, this advantage must be changed. To increase the income of the labor force now, it is necessary to raise wages, raise the prices of agricultural products, control housing prices and improve social security. In the middle of this transformation, what we need is a moderate appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB, not a substantial appreciation of the nominal exchange rate of RMB. How will the investment in fixed assets be adjusted? Yang Ping, Director of the Investment and Financing Research Office of the Institute of Macroeconomics of the National Development and Reform Commission: What will happen to the investment in 20 1 1 year? 20 1 1 is the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and the second year after the impact of the international financial crisis in 2008. For a long time, economic growth has been a basic point of economic growth in China. This year is a very important year, and what kind of investment will be made next year is also a concern of government decision-making departments. The national savings rate is high. Will 20 1 1 be greatly reduced? In the case of a very high savings rate, the rapid decline of investment has a great impact on the national economy. It can be seen that the savings rate of government departments is still relatively high. This is the composition of 4 trillion investment plan and investment growth. The central government allocated 654.38+004 billion yuan in 2008, 503.8 billion yuan in 2009 and 572.2 billion yuan in 2065.438+00. The growth rate is still relatively high, but it is lower than that in 2009. In addition, in the country's investment management, in addition to the investment policy arranged by the National Development and Reform Commission, the financial and other departments have also arranged some fixed assets investment. Central government's public investment budget: 908 billion yuan in 2009 and 992.7 billion yuan in 20 10. It can also be seen from this point that the industrial expansion in 20 10 has also shrunk compared with 2009. For the real estate industry, which is sensitive to capital, if the monetary policy is greatly adjusted in 20 10, or the real estate policy continues the current situation, the real estate investment in 20 10 will be a delicate process. Our judgment on it is not particularly certain yet. What is being done now is the institutional reform of the real estate market. The timing of the introduction of real estate development tax, the construction of related affordable housing and the redefinition of the scope and guarantee of the real estate market will fundamentally change the pattern of the real estate market. This will also affect the trend of the real estate market. Generally speaking, with the end of the 4 trillion investment plan, the investment growth of 20 10 will have a normal path, and the economic situation and monetary and credit policies will become the main factors affecting investment growth. In addition, with the deepening of economic restructuring, the dependence on external demand will be reduced, and domestic demand will become the main source of economic growth. I estimate that the growth of fixed assets investment of 20 1 1 is equivalent to 20 10. 20 1 1 how to standardize the financing of local governments? Associate Professor, China Research Center for Socialist Market Economy, Fudan University: I think China's economy is like a Chinese painting: it looks good from a distance. This angle can also look at some problems of local government financing. From a distance, we know that China's economy has developed rapidly in the past 30 years; Recently, the financial system is very poor, and the financial system and the government system are not perfect. Local debt is high and the debt chain is also high. Rob Peter to pay Paul. What are the popular policy suggestions now? Two words, unpack. There are two ways, one is to open the packages one by one, and there are many items in each package; One is to check one by one. This is unreasonable. There are many financing channels for local governments, but they can be roughly divided into three categories: putting various projects together to reduce transparency; Repeated mortgage; Different parts are mortgaged to different banks. The first road is hazy and beautiful. For example, asset securitization in the United States packages information-sensitive assets into information-insensitive assets to promote transactions and improve welfare. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are typical examples. The financial crisis in the United States began with unpacking, because some assets have different values. Once distinguished, it will lead to adverse selection and collapse. The latter two methods make full use of the value of collateral, auction land, relatively relax constraints and improve the financing level of local governments. The financing of local governments in China is to turn the future income of assets such as land into assets that can be transferred and traded. The United States is an asset sector financial innovation, while China is a government sector financial innovation, and local governments have created an internal capital market. In the process of local government financing, we must distinguish two factors. Good factors will promote financial development, and bad factors will aggravate the bubble. The west has just taken off, and the real estate has not yet flourished, so it can be moderately relaxed; The eastern region needs standardization, but it cannot be unpacked. In addition, there should be strict regulations for different projects to strengthen the guiding role. ■