Foreign exchange market risk is divided into general foreign exchange market risk and sudden foreign exchange market risk. General foreign exchange market risk refers to the loss of income caused by daily fluctuation of exchange rate under the condition of open economy. Sudden foreign exchange market risk means that a currency may depreciate sharply in the international currency market, and foreign investors and speculators scramble to sell the currency. Once this possibility becomes a reality, it will become what people often call a financial crisis or a currency crisis. To some extent, the general foreign exchange market risk will not have a serious impact on the social economy. Therefore, people pay more attention to sudden foreign exchange market risks.
Sudden foreign exchange market risks will have an irreversible negative impact on the development of the national economy. Once a country's economy has problems, international foreign exchange speculators will take advantage of it and speculate wildly to devalue its currency. In this case, foreign investors will flee to avoid risks. The country's currency is facing increasing depreciation pressure in the foreign exchange market. In order to save the national currency, the government usually takes out huge foreign exchange reserves and sells them in the market. If the supply and demand of domestic currency cannot reach an international balance, the financial crisis will inevitably come. When the financial crisis is serious, it can destroy a country's economy, trigger inflation in a short time, push up interest rates, hit the domestic economy, increase foreign debt and shake the confidence of foreign investors.
Foreign exchange market risk and securities market risk are closely linked, especially in highly open economies, which can be said to be mutually causal. When a country's commodity market depreciates, foreign investors will withdraw hot money (short-term international capital) in order to avoid exchange rate risk and market risk and reduce the losses caused by devaluation, thus causing violent fluctuations in the securities market.
In reality, the stock market risk and foreign exchange market risk are determined by the macroeconomic operation of the whole country. For example, since the second half of 1997, the political situation in some Southeast Asian countries has been unstable, and at the same time, unfavorable news such as slow economic growth, frequent business closures and sudden increase in bad debts of financial institutions have appeared one after another, which has led to the stock market bearing the brunt and the stock price falling to a new low. As far as the impact is concerned, the withdrawal of foreign capital has caused turmoil in the currency market, giving international foreign exchange speculators an opportunity to finally form a financial storm that spread throughout the region, and the currencies of various countries have depreciated sharply. In the Hong Kong market, international speculators attack both the foreign exchange market and the securities market, hoping to defeat the Hong Kong dollar with both hands. Make huge profits from it. As Hong Kong's economy is in good condition, the government of China and the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region are determined to take measures to maintain the linked exchange rate system, so that the foreign exchange market and the stock market in Hong Kong have not suffered too much.
Although in an open economy, the risks of the securities market and the foreign exchange market are closely related. The development of securities market plays an important role in reducing the risk of foreign exchange market. If direct financing through the securities market can meet the long-term investment demand, the dependence on short-term foreign capital will be reduced. Some Asian countries are used to relying on short-term foreign loans to promote investment, and banks and non-bank financial institutions are keen on investment. This is a major problem in the economic development of some Asian countries.
At present, China's foreign exchange market and securities market are moderately and limited open. The relationship between foreign exchange midfield risk and securities market risk has not reached the close degree of some open countries in Southeast Asia, but we should nip in the bud. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the internal relationship between the foreign exchange market and the securities market while promoting further reform.