1. Defects of the system itself. The root cause of the collapse of the dollar-centered international monetary system. It is the inevitable contradiction in the system itself. Under this system, the US dollar, as a means of international payment and international reserve, plays the role of the world currency.
On the one hand, the US dollar, as a means of international payment and international reserve, requires a stable value of the US dollar in order to be generally accepted by other countries in international payment. The stability of the dollar requires not only that the United States has enough gold reserves, but also that the international balance of payments of the United States must maintain a surplus, so that gold will continue to flow into the United States and increase its gold reserves. Otherwise, people are reluctant to accept dollars in international payments.
On the other hand, if the world wants to obtain sufficient foreign exchange reserves, it also needs the United States to maintain a large balance of payments deficit, otherwise the world will face a shortage of foreign exchange reserves and international payment means in international circulation channels. However, as the US deficit increases, the gold security of the US dollar will continue to decrease and the US dollar will continue to depreciate. After the Second World War, it was the inevitable result of the development of this contradiction from the shortage of dollars to the flood of dollars.
2. The dollar crisis and the American economic crisis broke out frequently. The capitalist world economy is changing, and the dollar crisis is the direct cause of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
(1) US gold reserves decrease. 1950 The United States launched the Korean War, which led to a substantial increase in overseas military spending, a deficit in international payments for years, and a continuous outflow of gold reserves. 1960, the gold reserves of the United States fell to178 billion dollars, which was not enough to cover the current debt of 2103 billion dollars at that time, and the dollar crisis appeared for the first time. In the mid-1960 s, the United States was involved in the Vietnam War, the balance of payments further deteriorated, and the gold reserves continued to decrease. 1in March, 1968, the US gold reserve had dropped to 12 1 billion, while the foreign short-term debt in the same period was 3.31billion, which triggered the second dollar crisis. By 197 1 year, America's gold reserves (102 1 billion dollars) were only 15.05% of its external current liabilities (67.8 billion dollars). At this time, the United States has completely lost its ability to accept the exchange of dollars for gold. As a result, President Nixon had to announce on August1971KLOC-0/5 that he would stop the obligation to exchange US dollars for gold. 1973 The worst economic crisis broke out in the United States, and the gold reserve has dropped from $24.56 billion in the early postwar period to110 billion. The lack of sufficient gold reserves as a basis has seriously shaken the credibility of the dollar.
(2) inflation in the United States has intensified. When the United States launched the war of aggression against Vietnam, the fiscal deficit was huge and it had to be made up by issuing currency, which led to inflation. Coupled with two oil crises, oil prices rose and expenditures increased; At the same time, due to the increase of unemployment subsidies and the decline of labor productivity, government expenditure has increased sharply. The US consumer price index 1960 1.6%, 1970 rose to 5.9%, and 1 1% in 1974, which had a huge impact on the US dollar exchange rate.
(3) The US balance of payments continues to be in deficit. At the end of World War II, the United States took advantage of its expanded economic strength and the opportunity of other countries being weakened by the war to export commodities to Western Europe, Japan and other parts of the world on a large scale, resulting in a huge surplus in the balance of payments of the United States, and a large amount of gold reserves from other countries flowed into the United States. Countries generally feel the "dollar shortage". With the economic growth and expansion of export trade in western European countries, their balance of payments has changed from deficit to surplus, and the reserves of US dollars and gold have increased. Due to the American foreign expansion and war of aggression, the balance of payments turned from surplus to deficit, and American funds flowed out in large quantities, forming a "dollar gap." This makes the US dollar exchange rate under great impact and pressure, and constantly fluctuates downwards.
(B) the collapse of the Bretton Woods system
1. Dollars are no longer converted into gold. The seventh dollar crisis broke out in July 197 1. On August 15, the Nixon administration announced the implementation of the "new economic policy" and stopped fulfilling the obligation of foreign governments or central banks to exchange dollars for gold. This means that the dollar is decoupled from gold, and one of the two pillars supporting the international monetary system has collapsed.
2. Cancel the fixed exchange rate system. March 1973, another wave of selling dollars and snapping up gold and marks in western Europe. On March 16, 2006, Europe * * * held a meeting with nine market countries in Paris and reached an agreement. The Federal Republic of Germany, France and other countries have "jointly floated" the US dollar and fixed their exchange rates with each other. Britain, Italy and Ireland float separately and will not participate in the same floating for the time being. In addition, other major western currencies have also implemented floating exchange rates against the US dollar. At this point, the fixed exchange rate system, another pillar supporting the international monetary system after the war, also completely collapsed. This declared the final disintegration of the Bretton Woods system.
2. When there is a contradiction between the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank and the fiscal policy maintained by member countries, it is very difficult to coordinate. After the implementation of the unified currency, the European Central Bank implemented a unified monetary policy to maintain the stability of the euro, but member States still retain the right to implement their own fiscal policies. When there are contradictions and conflicts of interest, it is difficult to achieve coordination between the two. Just as there is Triffin dilemma in the Bretton Woods monetary system, there are insurmountable internal contradictions in the internal mechanism of the euro.
3. The enlargement of EU and the implementation of Euro will inevitably aggravate the contradiction with developing countries.
The implementation of the European single currency will further release the potential economic power of the European single market, the trade relations between EU member countries will be closer, and their external competitiveness will be improved, which will undoubtedly strengthen European trade protectionism and increase exclusivity, and will make it more difficult for open developing countries to enter this market, which will not only intensify competition and contradictions with developed countries, but also deepen contradictions with developing countries and even be resisted by developing countries. I hope I can help you. Thank you.
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