According to CCTV news, on June 15, local time, the US Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points to curb inflation soaring again. This is also the biggest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since 1994.
It is understood that in March this year, the Federal Reserve raised the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from the level close to zero, and began a tightening cycle to curb inflation. In early May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 50 basis points again.
Japanese experts said that the United States raised interest rates in an unprecedented way this year, and a large amount of funds flowing into the international market returned to the United States; However, Japan continues to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy, leading to a large number of foreign exchange markets buying dollars and selling yen, which is one of the main reasons for the depreciation of the yen.
Kumano Hideyoshi, Chief Economist of Japan First Institute of Life Economics: In March this year, the United States suddenly raised interest rates at an unprecedented rate, and a large amount of funds flowing into the international market returned to the United States, leading to global inflation.
Japan also has its own reasons. Both the United States and Europe have started financial tightening policies. Only Japan continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy, which leads to a large number of foreign exchange markets buying dollars and selling yen, leading to the depreciation of the yen.
Hideyoshi Kumano believes that the rapid depreciation of the yen may make Japanese companies unable to respond in time, among which SMEs are facing a greater impact.
Hideyoshi Kumano: For Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises, which are mainly engaged in domestic business, import prices have risen, profits have decreased, and even deficits have appeared. It can be said that compared with large enterprises, most small and medium-sized enterprises are more affected by the depreciation of the yen.
Hideyoshi Kumano believes that there are structural reasons for the depreciation of the yen, that is, the economy is highly dependent on imports. With the rise of international commodity prices, Japan's imports are also rising.
According to the data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance on June 16, Japan's imports in May increased by 48.9% year-on-year, hitting a record high for three consecutive months.
However, in May, Japan's trade deficit was the second highest level since comparable data were available for 1979, and it appeared for the first consecutive month 10.
It is understood that Hideyoshi Kumano has been engaged in professional economic analysis for 20 years. Regarding the rare rapid depreciation of the yen, he predicted that due to the different financial and monetary policies of Japan and the United States, the spread may further widen and the yen may continue to depreciate.
Hideyoshi Kumano, Chief Economist, Japan First Institute of Life Economics: Obviously, the impact of the depreciation of the yen is faster than the US interest rate hike. If the market loses confidence in the yen, the yen will depreciate further and unexpectedly. I think the current depreciation of the yen may have exceeded a reasonable range, and the control of the Japanese government and the central bank is very important.
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Related question and answer: Related question and answer: Japan is already very developed. Why is the exchange rate difference between the Japanese yen and the US dollar so great? A country's currency exchange rate is determined by its real assets and currency circulation, and has no direct relationship with whether a country is developed or not. The reason why Japan's exchange rate is low is that compared with other countries, the circulation of Japanese yen is larger. As for what caused the massive circulation of yen, it may be related to the United States.
After the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, the Japanese yen began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system, and the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar rose from a fixed low of 360∶ 1 to 240∶ 1. However, the US government is still not satisfied with the sharp appreciation of the yen, and appointed Finance Minister Baker to convene the "Plaza Agreement" 1985 reached by finance ministers of five western countries on September 22nd. The core content is to promote the appreciation of the currencies of the other four countries, especially the Japanese yen and the German mark, through joint intervention in the foreign exchange market.
Under the pressure of the United States, the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan "faithfully" fulfilled the "Plaza Agreement" and began to intervene in the yen exchange market on a large scale with the United States. The exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar rose sharply, and soon broke through 1 200 at the end of 985:1and1at the beginning of 65438. This means that in less than two and a half years, the yen has doubled against the dollar.
The rapid expansion of Japan's export trade is based on the low exchange rate of the Japanese yen to some extent. Therefore, after the Plaza Accord, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply, which directly resulted in a severe blow to Japan's foreign trade, and the Japanese economy, which relied heavily on external demand, quickly fell into the "depression of yen appreciation" (that is, the depression caused by yen appreciation).
In order to get rid of the depression of yen appreciation, the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan have adopted a series of powerful policy measures. One of them is the unprecedented "financial easing" policy after the war. The Bank of Japan reduced the official interest rate to an "ultra-low" level of 2.5% by cutting interest rates five times in a row. Under the background of full financial liberalization and shrinking demand for funds in the real economy, a large amount of surplus funds caused by ultra-low interest rates poured into the stock market and real estate market, which led to the rapid expansion of the economic bubble centered on the rise of stock prices and land prices. In the early 1990s, the economic bubble triggered by the appreciation of the Japanese yen burst suddenly, and the Japanese economy fell into an unprecedented serious recession, which has not been fully recovered.