Recently, overseas risk events have continued, and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has increased. After continuous appreciation, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates fell on the 22nd. At the same time, the central parity of RMB has been raised for three consecutive trading days, and the adjustment range has gradually increased. On the whole, since September, the central parity has remained stable, and the market price of RMB exchange rate has also dropped from this round of adjustment.

The RMB has fluctuated greatly recently.

1October 22 10, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates fell. Wind data shows that on the 22nd, the onshore spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 16:30, and the closing price was 7.0 17, which was 139 basis points lower than the previous closing price. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.0755, down 59 basis points from the previous closing price.

Previously, onshore and offshore RMB appreciated for three consecutive trading days. Onshore and offshore RMB rose by 175 basis points and 157 basis points respectively last week. At the same time, the dollar index continued to fall. Last week, the US dollar index fell for four consecutive trading days. 10 17 On the afternoon, the EU and Britain confirmed that they had reached an agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the EU. The euro and the pound rose sharply, and the US dollar index fell below the 98-point mark. Last Saturday, the British Parliament cancelled the vote on the new Britain's agreement to leave the European Union. On Monday (2 1), the dollar stopped falling and rebounded. It is still rising, but it has not returned to the 98 line.

Monita's macro research pointed out that there were two main reasons for the sharp drop of the US dollar index last week: First, Britain and the European Union reached an agreement on the withdrawal of New Britain from the European Union, which stimulated the euro to jump; Second, the poor data of industrial output, housing starts and retail sales in the United States dragged down the performance of the dollar.

The trend of RMB has fluctuated recently. On the whole, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has fallen back from the current round of adjustment, maintaining at the level of late August, that is, around 7.07. 2 1, the onshore spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.07, which has rebounded by more than 1 100 basis points from the low point in early September. Although there was a callback on the 22nd, it was still at a high level compared with late September.

The middle price acts as a stabilizer.

While the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is constantly fluctuating, the change of the middle price is relatively stable. 101On October 22nd, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was reported at 7.0668, up by 12 basis points, which has been rising for three consecutive trading days.

Historically, most of the time, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar, the onshore RMB against the US dollar and the offshore RMB against the US dollar are relatively consistent, but since the second quarter of this year, there has been a big deviation among them. Since August, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have continuously deviated from the central parity. Take the deviation of offshore RMB from the middle price as an example. The maximum spread was just over 300 basis points in April this year, but it expanded to more than 1 000 basis points in mid-May, and the highest spread reached 1 760 basis points on August 5.

This shows that the adjustment range of the central parity is much lower than that of onshore and offshore RMB, and the countercyclical adjustment of RMB exchange rate has been strengthened. Wind data shows that in September, the adjustment range of the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was significantly narrowed. Except for the adjustment range of 26 basis points on September 5, the rest of the time was less than 10 basis point, and the median price remained stable. Analysts said that after the countercyclical factor rises significantly, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar will remain relatively stable against the trend, and the trend of rapid depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will converge. After the National Day holiday, the adjustment range of the middle price increased, and the adjustment range has been above 10 basis point since 15.

In recent years, in response to exchange rate fluctuations, the central bank has accumulated a wealth of policy tools. Since 20 18 and 1 1, the People's Bank of China has issued1/central bank bills in Hongkong, with a scale of130 billion yuan. Analysts pointed out that the issuance of offshore central bank bills can affect the RMB lending rate in the offshore market, increase the short-selling cost and reduce the arbitrage motivation, thus affecting the exchange rate.

Many factors are good for the market outlook.

In the past two weeks, the three major RMB exchange rate indices have fallen across the board. According to the data released by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center in the morning of June 5438+00, 2 18, as of June 5438+00, 18, the RMB exchange rate index of CFETS was 9 1.06, down by 0.27 in one week; The exchange rate index of RMB in the currency basket of the Bank for International Settlements was 94.64, down 0.25 per week; The RMB exchange rate index of SDR currency basket was 90.97, down 0.43 in a week.

Analysts pointed out that the decline in the RMB exchange rate index is related to the large appreciation of European currencies against the US dollar. Industrial Investment Research pointed out that before the EU summit last week, all parties kept releasing optimistic signals to enhance the market's confidence in Britain's orderly exit from the EU, and the intraday amplitude of the pound was close to 500 points. The biggest beneficiary of the pound's surge is the euro, which is also a European currency. In addition, the market basically ruled out the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in June 5438+February, and the short-term rise of the euro was fierce.

Industrial investment research believes that the recent process of Britain's withdrawal from the EU will still occupy the focus of the foreign exchange market. With the approach of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, the market's attention may shift rapidly. In addition, countries will once again welcome forward-looking data PMI reports, which will disturb more sensitive markets in the near future.

Looking forward to the market outlook, Monita's macro research believes that the current high interest rate difference between China and the United States, the government's encouragement of foreign capital to flow into the capital market, the weakening of China's downward fear of economic stall and the sharpening of the US dollar will all benefit the RMB exchange rate.

CICC's collection team pointed out that if the US dollar weakens and the RMB appreciates, overseas institutions may accelerate the layout of the China bond market. In August, the RMB exchange rate broke 7%, overseas institutions were relatively cautious, and bond purchases declined. However, since September, as investors realized that China had no intention to actively guide the exchange rate depreciation, and the trend of RMB was relatively stable after breaking 7, overseas investors once again increased the allocation of China bonds. Custody data show that in September, overseas institutions increased their holdings of bonds by 86.3 billion yuan, the second highest since this year, second only to 103 1 billion yuan in May.

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