Diary body part
(1) Yesterday (2065438+200665438+1Tuesday, October 25th), I made it clear that I was bearish. Today, the market really pulled back. Fortunately, I chose to stand on the opposite side of most bullish scholars, and I was right.
Now, there are signs that the market has peaked. I believe that many scholars who have seen too much will soon turn their guns and turn bearish today. At this time, I decided to continue to hold different views with them. My attitude today is neutral. I don't think the market has broken its position. The focus is on the 5-day moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index. And I found that the Guo Jia team is still supporting the market. My observation is based on the following points:
(1) In the foreign exchange market, it seems that the Guo Jia team didn't completely defeat the RMB bears, because I have observed in detail that the difference (basis) between the offshore exchange rate and the onshore exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate at that time was about 60 basis points. But at present, according to today's trend (1around October 26th 15:30), the basis difference between the two is around 90 basis points, indicating that the onshore RMB exchange rate in China has stabilized first, and the depreciation trend has been initially curbed. However, in the offshore market, the RMB exchange rate is still unstable, which the Guo Jia team dare not take lightly. Therefore, the Guo Jia team should not completely give up its efforts to stabilize the A-share market.
(2) The trend of today's market is actually relatively strong, and the correction of the market index is not large. Moreover, the other side of the Shanghai Composite Index is very strong, and the lowest point stops falling near the 5-day moving average. Therefore, the way the market moves at least shows that the Guo Jia team has not completely given up supporting the market. However, from the perspective of the disk, some folk main forces have started large-scale shipment, which is safe. The market, indeed at present, is not suitable for chasing high for the time being.
(3) For friends who currently hold money, I definitely don't recommend buying at this high point. For friends who hold shares, in fact, I don't recommend adding positions. The only dispute is whether it is necessary to clear the warehouse (reduce the warehouse). I still express my attitude. I didn't fall below the 5-day moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index, and there is no systemic risk in the market for the time being. I dare not give the suggestion of clearing (lightening) the warehouse. However, if it falls below the 5-day moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index and cannot be recovered at the close, then everyone should seriously consider the problem of short-term hedging. The five-day moving average has not broken, and it is not excluded that the market will continue to overshoot. Some friends may ask me, Mr. Dai, why are you bearish yesterday and flat today? In fact, the market is changing, and so is the market. Yesterday, the market just rose sharply, accumulating a relatively large downward momentum. So, my diary was empty after yesterday's close. But today's market correction has released some downside risks, so my bearish mood has weakened.
Many financial experts and financial websites belong to the category of Monday morning quarterback, and like to sing more after the market rises sharply, and sing empty after the market falls or callback. Even, many mainstream financial websites actually prepare two news versions every day. There are many versions when the market is good, and bearish versions when the market is weak. Even, the research departments of some brokers are divided into two factions, one singing more and the other singing empty. No matter how the market ends, one of their research departments must be right. These are actually boring. Good economic experts see accuracy. It is impossible to get it right every time, but in terms of probability, it would be good if there were about 2/3 accuracy. My diary is published every day, and you can also review the previous investor diaries. I believe readers will cherish me as a scholar.
(4) I still insist on a general direction, that is, during the period of defending the RMB exchange rate, I insist on analyzing the market with political literacy (public literacy). I think the Guo Jia team wants to protect the exchange rate and prevent capital from flowing out, but it has no choice but to forcibly raise the low-valued blue chips in A-shares, so as to protect the index, form superficial prosperity and prevent the market from transferring funds abroad because of panic. This is a war, so I have no tendency to be bearish. I am observing the situation of this foreign exchange defense war, so as to predict the market trend. This is my basic logic.
Individual stock analysis
(1) The two stocks with the largest trading volume today are the stocks I analyzed in the investor diary: China Architecture and National Technology. After diary analysis, these two stocks have a very good trend and a huge increase, which has accumulated a huge profit-making disk in a short period of time. At present, the market is at this crossroads, and most of the main funds will choose to lighten up their positions. In the next few trading days, at least a callback shock process is needed.
(2) I dare not be overly bearish on the market today, mainly because there are new hot spots. This is Yili and Chengtou Holdings. Yili and Chengtou Holdings are all in heavy volume today, indicating the possibility of hot spot rotation. There is no systemic risk in today's market trend (Wednesday 2065438+2006,65438+1October 26th only).
(3) In the previous investor diaries, there was also an analysis of a demon stock named Wuchang Fish. This stock continues to rise and fall willfully, and the dealer continues to be crazy. If this stock doesn't stop trading one day, everyone will pay a little attention to the market situation.
(4) However, today, more stocks are showing a trend of rising more and falling less. In the next few days, the stocks that rose strongly in the previous period may need a period of decline, shock and washing, because of the profit-taking position, but whether it is broken or not, I still insist. The key is to see if the 5-day moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index can be held. Hang in there, then these powerful stocks may be a callback to wash the dishes. If they can't hold on, everyone will consider whether to unify the package.
Strong stocks that surged back were Wuliangye, Kweichow Moutai, China Power Construction, China Railway Second Bureau and China Aluminum.
In addition, it should be noted that whether the Guo Jia team supports the market depends on whether the overall position is reduced. Personally, I think there is no overall lightening today (estimated to be related to the fact that the offshore RMB exchange rate has not completely won). However, it is also possible to switch positions to pull other low-valued blue chips after partial lightening (personal guess, I have no inside information). At least, the traders of the Guo Jia team should lighten up their positions on the big blue chips that had a big increase in the previous period (note: many traders are from brokerage firms and their methods are fierce and decisive), and then try to pull other big blue chips. In short, Guo Jia's goal is to protect the Shanghai Composite Index, not individual stocks. So hijacking the Guo Jia team is not as easy as expected, because the traders of the Guo Jia team change positions very quickly. Personally, I don't have inside information, but I still have the ability to stare at the disk, so I take the liberty to guess that as long as there is no inside information, only logical analysis is not a big problem.
(5) Liaoning Chengda, which I analyzed in the economic literacy class in July, has reached a new high today, which is gratifying, but it is also very tortuous. In fact, most of the stocks analyzed in the economic literacy class are slow bull stocks, which basically requires a little patience. This is because all the stocks I analyzed in the economic literacy class have done in-depth fundamental analysis, and basically they have the opportunity to pull. However, everyone should pay attention to the rhythm. There is no systemic risk in the market, so it can generally wait. But if there is a problem in the market, come out first, and then buy it back when the market is stable, so as to avoid the roller coaster market in the middle. Best wishes.
(6) Let me talk about the relatively strong stocks observed on the disk. The following stocks are found according to the idea of demon stocks, which belongs to the analysis idea of right-hand trading (chasing high demon stocks). This idea is different from the relatively safe stocks analyzed by economic literacy (stocks with high probability of rising in the medium and long term), which belong to high risk and high income and can only be tried lightly. I have observed the following varieties (for reference only,
Today, we observe Zhongyuan, Chengtou Holdings, Zhongji Holdings, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, Han Jing Shares,
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