Wolfensohn, President of the World Bank, pointed out that every year when the crude oil price in the international market rises by 10 USD/barrel, the world economic growth rate will drop by 0.5 percentage points, among which developing countries will drop by 0.75 percentage points.
The impact of the rise in international oil prices on China's economy is manifested in two aspects: the direct impact is the increase in foreign exchange expenditure and the decrease in net exports, which in turn reduces the growth rate of GDP and drives up prices. The indirect impact is mainly manifested in the potential danger of product export decline: First, the products with oil as the main fuel and raw material face the potential danger of export decline due to the rising production cost and declining competitiveness. Second, export-oriented countries have difficulties in balance of payments due to rising oil prices, thus reducing their import capacity.
The rise in international oil prices will also have a greater impact on China's energy policy, mainly as follows:
High oil prices have prompted people to choose alternative energy sources. Due to the rigidity of consumption, clean coal, natural gas, new energy and renewable energy are optional varieties, which can promote the optimization of energy structure to a certain extent, but the leap-forward development of energy structure is bound to increase the cost of energy supply system.
Because the oil price is at a high level, oil consumers must take measures to save and replace oil, which has a positive effect on promoting energy efficiency and saving oil resources.
High oil prices have prompted countries around the world to further enhance their understanding of the importance of oil resources and strengthen exploration and development. Therefore, the competitive environment for China Petroleum Company to "go global" will be more intense, with increased operational risks and rising costs.
High oil prices have increased China's oil reserves and greatly increased the cost of the reserves. Every time the oil price rises 10 USD/barrel, the purchase expenditure of reserve oil may increase by hundreds of millions of dollars, and the oil price is higher than the general price expectation, which brings certain difficulties to China in increasing its oil reserves.