Title: The Great Game of Economy

Author: Shi Hanbing

Press: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press

Publication date: 20 1 1 Jun.

ISBN: 97875642 10625

Bar code: 97875642 10625

Brief introduction of the author

Shi Hanbing: When the surname is given, the word "Bing Bing" is warm. Born in February 1972. He lives in Shanghai and works in shanghai securities news. He is the author of what China should do when the subprime mortgage crisis changes the world.

Adhering to the pursuit and belief that "a fair and just system can save people from plunder and fear, and make public interests and fear of life universal values, and all this can only come from democracy", the author has long insisted on public welfare writing, voiced for the people and shouted for the people's livelihood, and was regarded as a conscientious, sober and independent intellectual by many netizens.

Master of business administration. Invited observer of China Financial Media Alliance, editor-in-chief of shanghai securities news's commentary (once editor-in-chief of Modern Jinbao and Modern Express, affiliated to Xinhua News Agency), and editor-in-chief of the online publication China, as a special guest of china national radio, published a commentary on current affairs. Phoenix Bob Porter, consultant, visiting professor of Nanjing University, media commentator of shanghai securities news and China Securities Network.

brief Introduction of the content

This book is the second economic work in the author's life. The content covers many fields such as economy, politics and military affairs in the world today. China's famous military writer, military theorist and critic, Air Force Admiral Major-General Qiao Liang prefaced this book, and commented that this book "covers almost all the problems in today's world: everything is in front of us! Even on military issues, his calm and sharp views and accurate and precise analysis are far above many of our military experts today. You can disagree with some of his conclusions, but you still have to admire him for fully considering all the elements and conditions when analyzing a certain problem, and then fusing them into a furnace, layer by layer, and deriving them step by step. "

Preface to this book 1

Tragic prophet

-Preface to Shi Hanbing's Economic Chess.

Qiao Liang

Originally, I wanted to use a more playful topic, such as "wizard" or "crow's mouth", but I was worried that readers and even the author himself could not understand my original intention, so I decided to use the word "prophet". First of all, it looks more positive. Secondly, after reading the abbreviated version of this book, I firmly believe that what the author thinks and says is worthy of these two words.

I don't know the author, but I know his works. Over the years, the name Shi Hanbing has jumped into my sight from time to time. In my opinion, his writing is insightful, colorful, prescient and avant-garde, which deserves your attention. Therefore, whenever I see him in a newspaper or magazine, I will take him with me to read it, including buying his book What should I do in China-When the subprime mortgage crisis changes the world.

But I want to say that all the impressions after reading are not as shocking as reading this book. In the "economic chess game", Shi Hanbing gave full play to the skills of an economic analyst, which is admirable. From the catalogue of this book, we can see that the author has the ambition to cover almost all the problems in the present world: everything is in front of us! Even on military issues, his calm and sharp views and accurate and precise analysis are far above many of our military experts today. You can disagree with some of his conclusions, but you still have to admire his analytical ability of fully considering all the elements and conditions when analyzing a problem, and then melting them into a melting pot, peeling off cocoons layer by layer and reasoning step by step. This is talent. This is the unparalleled talent of most people who cultivate, gallop or practice in this field. However, it was not his talent that I admired Shi Hanbing at first, although I was attracted by his talent at first. Because this talent is so bright and dazzling. What I value more is the quality of a serious scholar and thinker, which is revealed behind these articles full of talent and wisdom. In my opinion, these things-the talent of scholars and the quality of thinkers-will inevitably constitute a person's conscience and sense of responsibility. All this goes through this person's brain, then comes out of generate's chest, and finally becomes a loud cry and warning to the fate of the country and the nation.

When Bing Bing brought out his worries and warnings with almost cruel words and a lonely and angry cry that everyone was drunk and I woke up alone, he inevitably became a prophet. A tragic prophet who cannot be decorated with quotation marks.

After reading these words, which may be familiar to us, no one expressed such shock! -"All countries with excess money in the world are desperately trying to find a way out for money-only by absorbing these currencies can we avoid the raging fire of inflation and ignite the uncontrollable anger of the people";

"This neglected route, from currency overshooting to absorption and evaporation, dominates the stock market trend and economic trend of many countries";

"Now and in the future, mankind will pay the price for the currency that continues to be oversold. ..... Wealth is shrinking faster than climate warming. ...... All the governments and relevant institutions in the world are covering up the fact that money is over-issued, and without knowing it, they are grabbing the wealth created by the people ";

"Why is the domestic inflationary pressure increasing, that is, while the RMB depreciates internally, it is rapidly appreciating externally, especially against the US dollar? ..... putting the base currency in China to reserve foreign exchange such as US dollars will inevitably lead to this situation ";

"The United States and other developed countries, excessive credit support, can dock China's exports and consume China's excess capacity. After the subprime mortgage crisis, American consumers have overdrawn their spending in the next few years, and their spending power is not what it used to be. In this case, if China still invests heavily, what will happen to the overcapacity once this supply capacity is released in the future? ..... After inflation, China will enter the economic form of imported inflation and domestic deflation. "

"On the one hand, the United States should implement a weak dollar policy, on the other hand, it must ensure that the hegemonic position of the dollar in the world will not waver. Only by harassing the only euro that can compete with the dollar, that is, by triggering a crisis in the euro countries, can it strengthen the only strong position of the dollar";

"This means that the renminbi will appreciate not only against the euro, but also against the dollar ... There will be another link in the future, that is, by triggering the Japanese debt crisis, the yen will be forced to depreciate rapidly, leading to a rapid appreciation of the renminbi against the yen";

"The dangerous logic of this layout is: first, forcing the RMB to appreciate, leading to the bankruptcy of a large number of export-oriented manufacturing enterprises due to losses, including many high-quality enterprises, and then pushing the RMB to depreciate sharply, so as to buy high-quality enterprises, RMB assets and resources in China with the huge profits gained from pushing up China's bubble and arbitrage! ..... This is the blood of RMB appreciation! "

The above words are only quoted from the first chapter of this book. And similar words are both thorough and loud, all over the book. Perhaps, for these opinions, some conceited professionals in the circle will shrug their shoulders and say that they have long known it, and there is nothing new; Some officials who are used to reporting good news instead of bad news will regard it as a "crow's mouth" prediction, but for most people in China, from the decision-making level to the ordinary people, it is no less than a lightning that cuts through the shadow and a thunder that stings the eardrum.

Because, in today's China, not everyone has such knowledge and courage. Of course, Shi Hanbing knew that as a pioneer and prophet of thought, it was not enough to just shout "Wolf". You must prove with your thoughts and words, where did wolves come from? What will happen if you come? Why is this happening? In a word, you must reveal the reason why a wolf is a wolf, its nature, its behavior pattern and its route. When you make all this clear, you have accomplished the mission of a prophet. The rest are the people who listen to you. Although in most cases, people didn't pay attention to the prophet until the wolf really came and began to hurt the sheep. So, as a tribute to the prophet, China people invented "better late than never", a classic "Monday morning quarterback".

This is the helplessness of thinkers and the sorrow of the people. In the face of this sadness and helplessness, do you choose to go upstream or choose to retreat? This is the difference between a thinker and a vulgar thinker. Ice obviously belongs to the former, because in the chapters after the first chapter, he successively revealed to us all kinds of thrilling games and even struggles in the big chess game of different countries' economies, especially finance, politics and especially military affairs in the past few decades, and he was not satisfied with just describing the cruel scene of this protracted war to us. He wasn't even satisfied with using his The Lancet as a surgeon, showing us the sinister calculation and strategic path full of it, but he also revealed the root causes of all these diseases with the exploration of a doctor. This can be seen from his efforts to find the hidden track between Soros's attack on the pound and Thai baht, as well as the Greek and European debt crisis and the "stupid pig five" created by the United States to get rid of the financial crisis.

I think his efforts were not in vain. At this point, I lead Bing as a companion. Because from different fields and angles, we found the game strategy and rules of the biggest player in this big game, Americans. This strategic rule is expressed in a more academic way, but I only shorten it to two China idioms: "A rising tide lifts a boat" and "Underwater". This tight-lipped strategy of the United States means that when the global economic situation is improving, all countries are water, the United States is a ship, and the United States is the biggest beneficiary; When the global economy is in a downturn, countries are still water and the United States is a stone. Speaking of the bottom, the United States is still the relative biggest beneficiary. This is the secret that Americans have been unbeaten for hundreds of years. In order to cooperate with the realization of this strategy, Americans spare no effort, from theoretical guidance (market fundamentalism theory under the banner of Chicago School) to promoting the globalization movement (instead of the "open door" that the British Empire forced countries with gunboats policy in the past), to shaking mountains with soft persimmon-like wars, changing other people's investment environment, and controlling and driving away the flow rate and direction of capital. All this, Americans have played with ease, and the whole world has done it. Of course, this includes China.

As a passive player in this big chess game, Bingbing painfully pointed out all kinds of chilling possibilities for us. Although not every possibility will appear, because it is impossible for your opponent to turn every possibility against China into reality, it is absolutely necessary to be alert to its prospects. This is the value of the book Great Economic Chess. The author's book is full of angry rational cries, and I think decision makers must listen!

As a reader, of course, I also want to know what kind of prescription this book can prescribe for worrying "China patients". I noticed that Han Bing repeatedly emphasized the efficacy of "system", "system" and "values" except all targeted prescriptions. We haven't exchanged views on this, but I can feel the meaning of ice. Therefore, I can't help but say a few digressions on this.

In my opinion, a thinker can't take the conclusions of his predecessors as the premise of his argument without thinking. Even if this conclusion has been circulated in the world for hundreds of years and thousands of years, no one doubts it, but it still cannot be the basis for me not to doubt it. I never believe that the system or system can solve the fundamental problem, because putting the cart before the horse is irreversible. Therefore, I firmly believe that compared with institutions and systems, the soil that constitutes institutions and systems-nationality and nationality-is far more important. Therefore, it is impossible to really solve the problem without changing the soil structure to transplant the system or system-this is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the "uncooked rice democracy" in Taiwan Province Province. Not to mention the issue of accepting certain values, especially when such values are increasingly becoming a national weapon, not just the public's recognition and self-discipline. What is the difference between it and the function with opposite value? Based on these understandings, I have neither rejected nor been superstitious about all the passive water and trees that have come to China. Of course, these digressions are only spontaneous, and opinions vary. A good financial system is very important to the healthy operation and security of the national economy, which is not the same as what Bing said.

Only in this order, I pay tribute to this young thinker who knew the future of China earlier than most people in China, and feel solemn and stirring.

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