Without a little precaution and a little concern, you just appeared: today, the central bank enlarged the move and made a generous hand, and the market gained a trillion gift packages! The central bank announced that in order to meet the temporary liquidity demand of commercial banks due to the large amount of cash before the Spring Festival, promote the stable operation of the money market, and support financial institutions to provide various financial services before and after the Spring Festival, the People's Bank of China decided to establish a "temporary reserve utilization arrangement". The industry calls it "the limited edition of the Spring Festival is lowered".
The central bank announced that when there is a temporary liquidity gap during the Spring Festival, national commercial banks with relatively high cash can temporarily use the statutory deposit reserve of no more than two percentage points for a period of 30 days.
In this regard, the industry believes that this belongs to the "Spring Festival limited edition RRR scissors".
Term, the term is 30 days; National commercial banks that are limited by institutions and account for a relatively high proportion of cash; The statutory deposit reserve of no more than two percentage points can be temporarily used as a limit.
Industrial Research pointed out in its analysis report that according to the central bank, the amount temporarily used does not exceed two percentage points of the statutory deposit reserve. Based on the latest deposit scale of large banks in China, the upper limit of capital investment can reach10.5 trillion yuan, which is very impressive.
At the same time, the aforementioned analysis report pointed out that the object of this temporary reserve arrangement is "national commercial banks with relatively high cash investment", which is consistent with the operating object of TLF 20 17. According to the statement of the central bank in the third quarter of 20 17 monetary policy implementation report, "large Chinese banks become the only lenders". Therefore, Chinese banks are more likely to become users of this temporary reserve utilization arrangement.
Xingye Research also pointed out that the latest "temporary reserve utilization arrangement" issued by the central bank is similar to the "temporary liquidity convenience" issued on the eve of the Spring Festival of 20 17. Both of them are almost the same in terms of operating period and object, and they do not need pledge bonds to operate. However, the arrangement for the use of temporary reserves was announced earlier, the operating interest rate was lower, and the scale of liquidity that can be released was larger.
The central bank sends trillions of gift packages: upgraded TLF (extra spicy powder)?
1, "temporary reserve utilization arrangement", which has been extended to national banks, is an upgraded version of TLF.
During the Spring Festival of 20 16, in order to smooth out the liquidity disturbance such as a large number of cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival, according to Reuters and other reports, the central bank launched a TLF for big banks for about 28 days, with a scale of about 600 billion, without collateral, and the capital cost was the same as that of the 28-day reverse repurchase. TLF features: The operating targets are mainly for five major banks. The central bank said that it will provide temporary liquidity support for several large commercial banks with high cash input ratio, and the operation period will be 28 days.
However, this "temporary reserve utilization arrangement" has the following characteristics:
(1) The scope is extended to national banks, that is, in addition to the traditional five major banks, joint-stock banks are also listed;
(2) "Temporary reserve utilization arrangement", that is, the reserves paid by commercial banks to the central bank can be utilized, that is, collateral is not needed, which solves the pressure of tight mortgage bonds and LCR that restrict capital transmission indicators;
(3) There should be no extra capital cost (i.e. zero cost) when the central bank uses the bank's own reserves, but after this part of the reserves is recovered for temporary use, it cannot enjoy the statutory reserve interest rate 1.62% (the concept of opportunity cost). Therefore, it is an upgraded version of TLF (super spicy powder) in terms of operating objects, interest rates and scale.
2. The scope is effectively expanded, which can effectively hedge liquidity disturbances such as cash withdrawal during the Spring Festival.
The operation scope of "temporary reserve utilization arrangement" is extended to national banks, that is, in addition to the traditional five major banks, joint-stock banks are also listed. According to our observation, the demand for cash withdrawal of national banks during the Spring Festival accounts for 90% of the total demand for cash withdrawal.
The "temporary reserve utilization arrangement" open to national banks can effectively alleviate the liquidity pressure of institutions during the Spring Festival, and can also effectively hedge liquidity disturbances such as cash withdrawal during the Spring Festival. To put it another way, judging from the open market operation of the central bank in the Spring Festival this year, its liquidity pressure has also been significantly reduced, which will help stabilize the market's expectation of funds.
3. The scale of available temporary reserve support may reach trillions.
Judging from the proportion and absolute value of bank deposits in China, we initially estimate that the temporary liquidity can be released as high as 2 trillion by temporarily withdrawing the statutory deposit reserve by two percentage points. In fact, it depends on the bank's application for filing, but in theory, it can temporarily withdraw about 2 trillion reserves, without mortgage bonds, and the cost of capital is zero (only the opportunity cost of reserve interest rate).
Considering that the liquidity balance put in by the central bank at this stage has exceeded 6 trillion yuan, it still needs to be put in extra during the Spring Festival in previous years. This not only provides effective liquidity support, but also avoids the embarrassment of insufficient mortgage bonds.
4. It not only effectively supports the liquidity demand of the Spring Festival in scale, but also completely spans the Spring Festival in time.
According to the operational characteristics of the central bank, such as OMO and MLF, banks in various countries apply to the central bank in advance. Theoretically, you can apply after New Year's Day. However, considering that "the use period is 30 days", it will be postponed in case of holidays according to the settlement rules; We expect that in practice, considering the demand for funds across the Spring Festival (18/2 16 Spring Festival), the bank may start filing in 65438+ 10 or a few days later, and in 65438+10. From the time limit, it comprehensively covers the cash withdrawal demand and fund rolling demand before the Spring Festival.
5. Improve the reserve system to make monetary policy more precise.
Since 20 14, the Bank of China has been more detailed in monetary policy and more precise in liquidity management, such as introducing directional reserve, MLF, SLF, TLF and SLO. This "temporary reserve utilization arrangement" basically completely counteracts the disturbance of Spring Festival funds and further improves the reserve system; And fully consider the liquidity demand of the market and the situation of mortgage bonds. On the whole, it will not only help national banks to cope with the liquidity demand during the Spring Festival this year, but also provide more guarantees for the liquidity of small and medium-sized banks and non-bank institutions, and help stabilize or even boost the bond market sentiment.
Today, the central bank has just announced a targeted reduction in the deposit reserve ratio, but the stock market has not caused much turmoil. However, today, the index closed, and finally Lianglianyang Line 20 17 successfully stood above 3300 points, showing the dawn of 20 18.