When we are trading, many people have this phenomenon. Many people can predict a long-term change trend of the exchange rate, or they can predict where the exchange rate will reach, but they are oscillated in the short-term oscillation of the exchange rate, or the buying position is not good, which makes them feel uncomfortable. As a result, the trading results will either lose money or be flat for a month or longer. Why? Because many people often don't make a detailed plan when buying, short-term and long-term plans are often made while watching, and we will talk about it then. Because of this wrong idea, they often get anxious after earning dozens of points and close their positions in a short time. As I said before, once the trend is formed, there is a lot of room to go up or down. If you enter the market, you have already made a small sesame seed, so why bother? And if the trend reversal is caught, it is often the time when short-term stop loss is needed, in other words, when short-term escape is needed. At this time, many people think that we might as well solve the problem in the long run, but in the long run. Or it is still profitable, so I started the short-term market as a long-term market. In this way, after one year, you often earn less and lose more, and the whole is a loss.

My understanding of this situation is that foreign exchange transactions are analyzed in a very important three-dimensional space. Don't introduce the concept of time into the operation. Many people can see the long-term trend of exchange rate, but they have no time to analyze it, which leads to failure. Many people sigh after the market. If I hold this currency for a few more days, I can make a better profit. I have seen its long-term trend. So if you want to be a foreign exchange winner, please introduce time analysis. Therefore, it is suggested that people with such experience should do such analysis after mastering graphic analysis and some analysis methods, which will be the only way for us to become foreign exchange experts in the next step.

1, Bernstein theory

If we want to analyze and predict time, we should first mention Bernstein's theory. His theory is very good at studying the time in trading. To observe the changes of the foreign exchange market, we can grasp the law of ups and downs according to the changes of the cycle and the length of the form. This is good for us to conclude the business.

The length of the cycle can be divided into four categories:

1, seasonal cycle: We know that there are four seasons in a year, spring, summer, autumn and winter. If we plant food crops, we usually sow them in spring, and the crops are growing in summer, and autumn is our happiest time and harvest season, so we have to rest in winter and work hard next spring, so under the influence of harvest, there will often be some periodic highs or lows in some months.

Then I studied it for a long time, so there is such a cycle in the foreign exchange market. From the world's major currencies, each currency is affected by the checkout cycle. When the checkout is about to be completed, the demand for the currency of the checkout country will increase, which will lead to the rise of the currency. As we all know, March is the year-end closing day in Japan, and September is the half-year closing day every year. Just like planting food crops, this is a harvest day for Japanese companies, so these days are the days when the yen rises.

2. Long period: the average period exceeds one year. This long-term cycle is also stronger in the foreign exchange market. In the above Dow theory, the concept of time period is also put forward, which you can refer to, because these two theories are mutually confirmed.

3. Mid-term cycle: usually calculated in months, usually 6 months to 1 year.

4. Short-term cycle: the calculation cycle is days, and the average cycle is no more than 3 months. The daily chart we observed in the operation is such a cycle.

Figure 3-64 another classification is to use the periodic shape to classify:

1, symmetry period:, and the time period of each cycle is basically the same.

2. Irregular cycles: the interval between cycles is not long, and the time of occurrence is not the same.

Bernstein's theory also has the following characteristics: the repetition of 1 cycle is not exactly the same as the last cycle, but sometimes it tends to be concentrated in a certain length of time. The more times a long-short period is almost repeated, the more predictable it is. The long-term cycle can be divided into several short-term cycles at a lower level. For example, the wave theory we talked about, there are big waves in big waves, and it takes time to carefully observe and calculate. Similar commodity futures will have the same cycle length. If we observe the change of a currency exchange rate, we can measure the time between the obvious low point and the low point. If there are some differences in time, you can take the average.

Money market cycle theory

In fact, in some previous chapters, we introduced the concept that the global financial market is inseparable, which means that some theories of the stock market can also be extended to the foreign exchange market, but there are some small changes, so the foreign exchange market, like the stock market, also has periodic changes. No matter what financial market, it follows the theory of taking advantage of the trend. If you go against the trend, you will also lose money or even fail in that market. Therefore, the cycle theory of foreign exchange market is also based on trends. Make trading plans by using cycle changes. In fact, this method is very simple, and it has the following steps:

1, first analyze the trend of the overall currency and decide the general trend direction.

2. Find out the currency with the most rising or profit potential in the trend. After finding out the currency with the most rising or profit potential in the trend, make the operation strategy of this currency.

4. The cyclical trend of foreign exchange market can be divided into four stages. As can be seen from Figure 3-7 1, in the second stage of the foreign exchange market, investors should enter the market as early as possible and hold it all the time, so as to expand the band, while short-term speculators can buy low and sell high many times in the second stage. Before entering the market, they should carefully consider the target position and stop loss position. If the upward trend is too fast, they should wait for a good entry position after the callback.

5. In the first stage, the exchange rate hovered at a low level, but the downward trend slowed down obviously, and the graph showed that the decline was not much, so it was the stage of bottoming out and turning to the market. Only in the face of such a good opportunity to turn the market, most investors did not realize that the exchange rate would continue to fall.