However, it is estimated that you will give me extra points!

The world pattern includes the world economic pattern and the world political pattern, and the world economic pattern changes faster than the world political pattern. The game between North and South economic forces is an important factor to promote the change of world economic structure. The so-called south refers to the southern countries, that is, developing countries that gained independence and sovereignty before and after the Second World War. The so-called north, that is, northern countries, that is, developed countries, are concentrated in OECD, that is, the so-called "rich countries club." North-South relations are reflected in the mutual cooperation and struggle in politics, economy, science and technology, security and military affairs, among which the most prominent is the gradual change of economic strength contrast between North and South. According to the data released by the United Nations and its affiliated institutions, in the 1980s, the GDP growth rate of southern countries was higher than that of northern countries, but the per capita GDP growth rate was lower than that of northern countries. However, since the 1990s, developing countries have not only narrowed the gap with developed countries in economic aggregate, but also narrowed the gap with developed countries on the premise of increasing population base. 2 1 0 years before the century, the growth rates of GDP and GDP per capita in developing countries, as well as the growth rates of private consumption, investment in fixed assets and foreign trade, which drive economic growth, continued to be higher than those in developed countries. Change is eternal, and the only constant in the world is change. People should no longer look at the status and role of developing countries from a static point of view. As the economic growth of developing countries is faster than that of developed countries, the gap between North and South will tend to narrow and the world economic structure will change, which is an inevitable result.

1. Asia is the first to rise.

Asia accounts for about one-third of the world's land area and its population accounts for about three-fifths of the world's total population. It is the largest continent in the world and has had its own glory in the history of world economic development. In 1820, the global economic aggregate was US$ 695 billion, with French, British and American accounting for 5.4%, 5.2% and 1.8% respectively, and China and Indian accounting for 28.7% and 16% respectively. However, with the industrial revolution, western powers carried out large-scale colonial expansion and aggression against Asia. However, after World War II, due to the comprehensive effect of various factors, a number of countries and regions with leap-forward development first appeared in Asia. In the 1960s and 1970s, Taiwan Province Province, South Korea, Hongkong and Singapore vigorously developed export-oriented economies, which took off one after another as "dragons" and were praised as "NIES" in Asia by the international community. From 1980s to 1990s, Malaysia and Thailand "quasi-emerging industrial economies" as well as Indonesia and the Philippines also accelerated their economic development in order to become emerging industrial countries at an early date. In particular, the economic reforms in China in the late 1970s, Viet Nam in the mid-1980s and India in the early 1990s promoted their respective economies to take off and played a "pulling role" in the sustained and rapid growth of East Asia and even Asia. From 197 to 10 in 2007, Asian countries and regions overcame the negative impact of the financial crisis and became the fastest and most dynamic regions in the world economy. The average annual growth rate of GDP in emerging Asian economies exceeds 9%, and its contribution rate to world economic growth is increasing day by day. Japan's "Fuji Sankei Shimbun" reported on April 4, 2008 that in 2007, the nominal GDP of major Asian countries and regions such as China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province, Hong Kong and ASEAN 10 countries reached10.7 trillion US dollars, which was 1980. China, India and other emerging economies have replaced Japan as the engine of Asian economic development, and the "flying geese model" with Japan as the leading geese has long since ceased to exist. John? Naisbitt pointed out in his book Asia Megatrends that in the past 150 years, the west enjoyed progress and prosperity, while Asia suffered from poverty and hunger. Now, Asia is on the road of economic revival, which will enable them to regain the glory and glory of their previous civilization.

Second, the soaring and "super-high-speed" development of emerging powers.

O 'Neill, head and chief economist of global economic research department of Goldman Sachs Group, began to pay attention to and study the possible economic development of China, India, Russia and Brazil at the beginning of this century, and in 2003, he published the research report "Dream with BRICS-The Road to 2050", and put forward the concept of BRICS. BRIC countries are all big countries. Although in this rare financial crisis, the Russian economy declined seriously and Brazil's economy fell into zero growth, but due to the economic pull of China and India, the proportion of BRIC countries' total economic output in global GDP rose from 13% in 2007 to 15% in 2009, which became an international force that can't be ignored, and accelerated the differentiation of economic structure between North and South. Following the BRIC countries, the American Goldman Sachs Group introduced the concept of "Diamond Eleven Countries" (Philippines, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey and Vietnam) in 2007, pointing out that the average economic growth rate of the eleven countries was about 5.9% during the four years from 2004 to 2007, which was the average growth rate of European countries. In 2007, Japan BRIC Institute put forward a new term "VISTA", which refers to Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina. I believe that these five countries have great development potential and their economies will develop rapidly in the coming decades. According to the calculation of the Japan BRICS Institute, from 2005 to 2050, the economic scale of the G-7 countries in the West will be 2.5 times at most, the BRIC countries will be expanded to 20 times, and the prospect five countries may be expanded to 28 times. Although this is only a prospect and expectation for the future, it reflects the changing trend of the future development of the North-South economy from one side.

Members of BRIC, Diamond Eleven and Prospect Five are labeled as emerging markets, emerging economies and emerging industrial countries by the international community. What are emerging markets or emerging economies? How many emerging markets or economies are there? At present, there are no clear definition standards and accurate figures, but it is certain that emerging markets or emerging economies have spread all over Asia, Africa, South America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East, forming "emerging economic groups". Emerging economies belong to developing countries, so the rise and take-off of developing countries is an indisputable fact. Farid zakaria, former editor-in-chief of American Foreign Affairs magazine and editor-in-chief of Newsweek International, believes that countries outside the industrialized West have developed at an unimaginable speed in the past 20 years. This means the rise of the other-the rise of the rest of the world (see Newsweek, May 2008, 12 edition). The so-called "the rise of the other or the rise of other parts of the world" includes not only the rise of Asia and developing countries full of economic vitality, but also the "quiet great changes" that are taking place in other regions and other developing countries. Every major crisis will bring about great changes, leading to the adjustment and change of the world economic structure. This economic crisis and financial crisis, which originated in the United States, is even more so. America's Anglo-Saxon development model, America's financial innovation system, America's neo-liberalism and the role of international financial institutions have been widely questioned. The G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh weakened the role of the G-8, and regarded the G-20, including 10 emerging economies, as the "most important international economic cooperation forum" and the "new coordination group for the world economy", which indicated that the top three leading the world economy could no longer solve global problems alone, and that the large emerging economies with growing influence had improved their status and expanded their voice in the global economic system, which marked a new change in the world economic structure.

3. Emerging economies and developing countries still have a foundation for sustainable development.

According to various forecasts, the world economy fell into the worst recession since World War II in 2009. Although the economic contraction of developed economies has decreased in the second and third quarters, the general trend of recession of the world economy and developed economies is a foregone conclusion and will not be reversed. Under the influence of economic globalization, the financial crisis and economic recession in developed countries slowly extended to developing countries, which was dragged down and affected. Large emerging economies such as Russia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa have all experienced different degrees of economic contraction. However, the overall economic performance of developing countries is still better than that of developed countries. According to the World Bank's forecast, the GDP of developing countries will increase by about 2. 1% in 2009, which is in sharp contrast with the economic performance of developed countries of over minus 3%.

From the analysis of the current actual situation, the worst period of the international financial crisis has basically passed, and the world economy has begun to bottom out. The main reason is that the panic index (VIX Volatility Index) has dropped below 30%, indicating that investors' panic about the market outlook has begun to decrease; Enterprises' desire for investment began to increase, and banks began to change their policy of sparing loans; PMI continues to rise; Consumer confidence began to pick up; The number of people applying for unemployment for the first time began to decline; The stock market rebounded. Although the above six economic bottoming indicators have improved, they are only the beginning. In addition, there are still many uncertainties, toxic assets have not been eliminated, and debt crises and bank failures have occurred from time to time. Therefore, the foundation of world economic recovery is still not solid, and the economic recovery is still very fragile. It is impossible for the world economy and developed economies to return to the growth level from 2002 to 2007 in a short time, and they will continue to slide on the track of low growth or even recession for two or three years. If all countries, especially the G20, can truly "help each other in the same boat", shift financial assistance to support the real economy, remove obstacles to sustained growth, change macro policies, and pass the crisis on to other countries, it is unlikely that the global economy will experience a "double-dip recession" in 20 10, but it is possible for individual countries to decline again after several quarters of recovery and growth. Due to the appreciation of the yen and deflation, in order to prevent the economy from falling again after rebounding, the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0. 1% on June 65438+February, 2009, and will provide 10 trillion yen to the financial system through new loan instruments to increase liquidity. The report "World Economic Situation and Prospects in 20 10" issued by the United Nations predicts that the world economic growth rate in 20 10 is only 2.4%. It is an important positive change that the world economy changed from negative growth in 2009 to positive growth in 20 10. However, according to the traditional definition of the International Monetary Fund, the growth rate of the world economy is below 2.5%, which is considered as a world economic recession, so the world economy will still be in recession or on the verge of recession in 20 10.

However, in the face of world economic adversity, the trend of economic growth rate of emerging economies and developing countries higher than that of developed countries has not changed, and the development prospects are still sustainable. The main reasons are as follows: First, the consumer market demand in emerging economies and developing countries is huge; Second, emerging economies and developing countries have abundant foreign exchange reserves and domestic savings; Third, the R&D expenditure of emerging economies and developing countries has greatly increased, and high-tech industries have gradually emerged; Fourth, the number and market value of emerging multinational companies composed of emerging economies and developing countries are increasing in the world's top 500; Fifth, emerging economies and developing countries actively promote the signing of bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements. There are 209 free trade zones and free trade agreements in the world, and intra-regional trade has accounted for 50% of world trade; Sixth, the trade development index of emerging economies and developing countries, that is, the ability to transform trade surplus into their own social and economic development, has gradually increased; Seventh, with the strengthening of global trade protection, the trade between emerging economies and developing countries has surged. In view of the above situation, developing countries as a whole will grow at a rate of 5. 1% in 20 10, in which the economic growth rate of emerging economies is about 6%, while that of developed countries is only about 1.75% (predicted by the International Monetary Fund is 1.3%). Therefore, there is still huge room for emerging economies to catch up with developed economies.

The rise of emerging economic groups is a typical embodiment of the changes in the world economic structure. As World Bank President Zoellick said, a remarkable feature of the future world economic structure is the rise of major emerging economies. Before the financial crisis, these economies began to rise, and the subsequent crisis accelerated their rise. Asia is "the center of the emerging world". When the world economy is picking up, the momentum of economic recovery in Asia is faster and stronger than any other region in the world. Singaporean Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew said that the economic growth of China and India has supported the Asian economy, and even if the US economy slows down, Asia will not fall into recession (Nihon Keizai Shimbun, April 3, 2008). The British "Economist" predicts that emerging Asian countries will show a V-shaped reversal. In the next five years, GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 7-8%, and its recovery rate is more than three times that of other countries in the world. Therefore, Asia is growing in the world economy.

The new source, the focus of world economic development is shifting to Asia. Under the guidance of Asia, it is estimated that the total economic output of emerging economies and developing countries will account for 50% of global GDP around 2020. In May 2008, the Japanese magazine Forbes published an article by Lee Kuan Yew entitled "Asia is the Center of the World Economy". He predicted that in the next 20 years, the average annual economic growth rate of China and India will exceed 9%, and that of other East Asian countries will be about 7.5%. By 2030, Asia's GDP will account for 50% of the world and return to the position of "the first in the world". At the informal APEC leaders' meeting held in Singapore from June 5 to 10, 2009, Obama had to emphasize the importance of Asia to the United States, and declared that the era when the United States left the fastest-growing region in the world was over and the United States would return to Asia.

Fourth, economic strength is the basis of economic power distribution and changes in the world economic structure.

The new trend of world economic development will inevitably lead to the chain reaction of international economic relations, the change of world pattern and the adjustment of international economic and political order. As the French "Young Africa" pointed out, "Crisis is like a storm or tornado, and there are scenes changing everywhere. When the crisis is over, we will find a different world and the world pattern will naturally change. " Facts show that the United States has suffered multiple challenges in the financial crisis and economic recession, which are as follows: the status of the United States as the largest economic power has been challenged; The ability of the United States to govern the world is challenged; The international order dominated by the United States is challenged; The privileged position of the dollar is challenged, and so on. These challenges boil down to the fact that the world pattern should not be dominated by a "unipolar world", and developed economies such as the United States should recognize and accept this objective reality.

The rise of emerging economies and the transformation of the world economic structure are, in the final analysis, the result of the law of unbalanced economic development. For more than 50 years since the publication of the Manifesto of the Productive Party1,the world pattern has generally experienced the dominance of Britain, Britain, France and Germany, and the dominance of the United States as the savior. From the perspective of world system theory, the essence of the rise and fall of great powers is that some countries slide from the "center" to the "edge" of the world, while others slide from the "edge" to the "center". The rise of large emerging economies, especially China and India, is a "return of history", which will gradually change the existing map and pattern of the world economy and play a vital role in the revitalization of Asia. Deng Xiaoping said long ago, "If China and India don't develop, there will be no Asian century. The true Asia-Pacific century or Asian century will not come until China, Indian and other neighboring countries are developed "(Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Volume III, People's Publishing House, 1993, p. 282). India has also seen the importance of common development between China and India. In 2004, Indian Minister of State for Commerce Jairam used a new word, CHINADIA, to connect China and India. CHINADIA means that China and India advance together and cooperate together.

However, in today's new era, the rise of emerging powers can no longer follow the history of great powers' hegemony in modern times, but rely on launching wars of aggression and implementing external expansion. Instead, we can only take the road of peaceful development, that is, strive for a peaceful international environment to develop ourselves and safeguard world peace with our own development (Hu Jintao's speech at the Vietnamese National Assembly, 1 1, 2005). From the rapid development of emerging Asian powers, we can see the prospect of Asia's development and rise. The rise of Asia is different from the historical background of the rise of Europe and the rise of the United States. It is the product of multicultural coexistence, coexistence, prosperity and integration. It is the rise under the condition of globalization, and it is the process of crossing and promoting with Europe and America and other continents. Its rise does not mean disasters on other continents (Zeyu: International Conference of Asian Scholars, Social Science Journal, August 2005 18).

Many countries in the world have seen the momentum of Asia's rise and given positive comments. As early as June, 5438+February, 2004, the forecast report "Looking to 2020, Depicting the Global Future" made by the National Intelligence Committee of the United States pointed out that in the next 15 years, "the rise of China and India will be enough to rival 19 century Germany and the United States in the 20th century, which will have a serious impact on geopolitics". Businessweek believes that the world has never seen these two countries, which account for13 of the global population, rise at the same time, and China and India have the strength and vitality to change the global economy in the 2nd1century (Businessweek: The Rise of China and India, August 22nd, 2005). Lawrence, President of Harvard University? Summers even said at the World Economic Forum in Davos on June 5438+ 10, 2006 that the rise of China and India might become the three major economic events in the past millennium together with the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution. However, we must be soberly aware that although the gap between North and South tends to narrow, it is still huge. If developing countries want to get rid of underdevelopment, China, Indian and other large emerging economies still have a long way to go to get the attention and respect of the international community.