Central Bank of Russia
It is reported that the West has imposed seemingly severe sanctions on Russia. Theoretically, this is a series of measures that can hit the core of Russian economy, but in fact, the impact of these sanctions on Russia seems to be limited. It is reported that Russia is one of the largest countries with the richest natural resources in the world. All along, the impact of sanctions on big countries is far less than that on small countries, and it may take several years for western sanctions against Russia to take effect. In addition, it is reported that in this contest between Russia and NATO as a whole, it is actually those countries and regions with emerging economies that bear the brunt of the economic impact.
Sanctions have limited impact?
The west still depends on Russian energy.
Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the West has imposed various sanctions on Russia. It is reported that in theory, this series of sanctions can hit the core of the Russian economy. This spring, shortly after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the forecast data showed that in 2022, Russia's GDP would drop by at least 7%-8%, and it might even reach 1 1%, and prices would rise by 20%-25%. However, this may not be the case. According to the report released by the European Council official website1October 23rd, independent surveys by the World Bank, the OECD and the International Monetary Fund show that Russia's GDP will drop by 3.4%-5.5% in 2022. In addition, local time1October 23rd 165438+, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation indicated that the annual inflation rate in Russia dropped to 12.3%. According to the report, Russia's economy has indeed been affected, but it is far from as bad as previously predicted.
Why can Russia's economy survive under the fierce sanctions of the West? Some analysts believe that, first, Russia's economic defense is very effective; Second, there are many loopholes in Western sanctions against Russia.
According to the analysis, the most effective economic defense is initiated by the Russian central bank. According to previous reports, the Russian central bank had previously established the world's largest gold and foreign exchange reserves worth $640 billion, which was called the "fortress" of Russian finance by the outside world. According to the data of the economic data website TradingEconomics, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia's foreign exchange reserves have shown a downward trend and then increased. The report pointed out that at the beginning of the conflict, the Russian financial system was really hit hard, and the western sanctions against the Russian central bank may be much greater than previously expected. However, due to the proper management and operation of the Russian central bank, the system was restored. In addition, even though many Russian banks were kicked out of the SWIFT system by the West, Russia subsequently tied the ruble and Russian energy settlement together, allowing European countries to pay their energy bills in rubles, "objectively lifting the SWIFT sanctions against Russia". It is also reported that Peter Stano, spokesman of the European Commission, said that the EU would consider the possibility of reconnecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT system.
According to the data of the economic data website TradingEconomics, Russia's foreign exchange reserves show a trend of first falling and then rising.
The report also pointed out that many western sanctions against Russia are actually aimed at curbing Russia's production capacity. IT is reported that some industries in Russia, such as IT services, food and manufacturing, are more dependent on imports. Western sanctions did restrict the import of some key Russian products at first, but Russia quickly adjusted its direction and turned its attention to countries that did not participate in the sanctions, such as Belarus, and imported the required products from these countries.
In addition to Russia's strong self-defense capability, western countries' sanctions against Russia also have limitations, especially in the energy field. According to the report, western countries' sanctions against Russia are limited to some areas, but they have not stopped importing energy from Russia. With the energy crisis and soaring inflation, Russia has not been affected, but has made a lot of money in the energy field. According to the previous report of Reference News Network, as of the end of July this year, Moscow earned 97 billion US dollars through oil and gas sales, of which about 74 billion US dollars came from oil exports. According to the report, despite the slight decline in oil exports, the average monthly income of Russian oil sales this year is 20 billion US dollars, while the average monthly income of 202 1 is 146 billion US dollars. In addition, natural gas is also one of the main energy sources exported by Russia. According to media reports on February 7th, 65438, Gazprom will deliver 42.4 million cubic meters of natural gas to Europe through Ukraine on the 7th.
Russian energy makes money, and western capital flows into Ukraine.
Who is "injured"?
Russia's foreign exchange reserves have increased in the past week, and Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves have also increased. According to the report released by the Central Bank of Ukraine, as of June 5438+February 1, Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves reached US$ 27955438+0 billion, an increase of 10.7% compared with the beginning of June. Ukraine's central bank said that one of the reasons for the increase in foreign exchange reserves was the steady inflow of funds from international partners in June 5438+065438+ 10. It is reported that the real losers in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are those fragile emerging economies, such as Sri Lanka and Peru.
The report pointed out that western economic sanctions against Russia are actually a double-edged sword, which can bring pain to Russia, but it will also bite itself. According to the analysis, western countries are in an embarrassing situation: with the intensification of conflicts and the escalation of sanctions, domestic energy prices and living costs have soared, bringing a lot of income to Russia, but aggravating inflation in western countries.
However, the energy crisis and the cost of living crisis not only affect western countries. The report pointed out that in Sri Lanka, Peru and other countries and regions, the soaring prices of fuel, food and fertilizer triggered street protests, and even political turmoil occurred in some countries.
In addition, in order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for several months, and the strength of the US dollar also triggered a rapid outflow of international hot money from emerging countries, and non-US currencies depreciated sharply. According to the report of the Asian Development Bank, by the end of 10, the Philippine peso had fallen by 12% against the US dollar, Indian Rupee by 10% and the Vietnamese dong by 9%. With the appreciation of the dollar, it is more difficult for vulnerable emerging economies to repay their debts in the form of dollars.
Red star journalist Li
Editor Yu Dongmei Yang Cheng