First, RMB foreign business.

Second, foreign capital settled down.

Third, more trade trials of international rules.

First, interest rate marketization.

Since we want to ensure the free convertibility of RMB, its core must be the marketization of interest rates. In this plan, it is clearly stated that the interest rate in the financial market and the asset price of financial institutions will be marketized in the region. To put it bluntly, for the previously closed sheepfold in China, in this case, if the sheepfold and the whole grassland fence are removed, wolves and famine may be encountered. This way is to hope that the sheep can run faster. Its main impact is the decline in banking profits.

1, the impact of interest rate liberalization on commercial banks is gradually emerging. Small and medium-sized financial institutions will face reshuffle.

2, interest rate liberalization can make financial institutions with different functions and businesses pull to the same starting line, and the competition in the same industry is becoming increasingly fierce.

3. The loan price will drop due to the intensified competition, especially the bargaining price of big customers will drop significantly.

4. Bank spreads will further narrow, especially the deposit interest rate will continue to rise, further squeezing the profit margin of banks.

5. Challenge the bank's risk management ability, asset-liability management ability and independent pricing ability.

Influence on ordinary people

Once the interest rate marketization is fully realized, the thinking and behavior of ordinary people choosing to deposit their money in the bank will definitely change greatly.

For mass customers, they will pay more attention to the stability and profitability of bank basic savings products, as well as the convenience and rapidity of bank financial services; For customers with certain financial strength, while ensuring deposit safety and financial convenience, they will pay more attention to the services of bank investment products; For wealthy customers, they will pay more attention to the preservation and appreciation of assets and personalized financial service experience.

Second, the convertibility of RMB capital account should be tried first (on the premise of reliable risk)

1, under the premise of controllable risks, RMB capital account convertibility can be tried first in the region;

2. Try first in the cross-border use of RMB;

3. Explore international foreign exchange management reform pilots and establish a foreign exchange management system that is compatible with the free trade zone.

4. (Step by step) In the future, enterprise legal persons can complete the free convertibility of RMB in the free trade zone, and individuals will not implement it for the time being.

5. The upper level (possibly) requires domestic enterprises to go abroad and conduct international investment and financing, and the state will provide institutional convenience. The upper level requires FTZ to build an Asia-Pacific operation center, facing the Asia-Pacific center, and the state will also provide institutional conditions.

Then the above leads directly to the Shanghai Free Trade Zone:

1 has become the base camp of RMB business, and the operation mode of RMB business and the whole foreign exchange market is completely in line with international standards.

2. Realizing the free convertibility of RMB is the need to improve the investment of foreign-invested enterprises, and it is also the need for China enterprises to expand their business environment and expand the scale of introducing foreign capital. For foreign investors to operate in China, fairer and more market-oriented conditions will be relatively relaxed.

3. Realizing the free convertibility of RMB is conducive to further enhancing the stability of RMB value. It also shows that the government has a package plan to lead the "open" economy.

Most importantly, in the increasingly tight investment environment, revitalizing the money stock is almost one of the core viewpoints of the whole free trade zone.

Influence on ordinary people

This is actually quite obvious. Free currency exchange is first of all convenient for travel. Secondly, ordinary people have so much money and few domestic investment channels. Ordinary people put their money in the bank, and the bank interest rate is low. Therefore, the people of China have the right to invest overseas and diversify their investments.

Third, establish a bonded area.

(Please note that it is established, not newly established)

Shanghai is not just an ordinary bonded area this time. Although the detailed rules haven't come out yet, I'm afraid it's not a simple gimmick to put up a brand of special customs supervision.

The role of the bonded area is nothing more than this:

1, convenience service enterprise.

2. Expand the port function of Shanghai as a port, especially since Shanghai is different from Hong Kong and can directly provide huge tax revenue to the central government.

3. Enhance the re-export function and logistics function, and attract a large number of export factories and bonded warehouses.

4. Integrated ports and centralized supervision functions are beneficial to import and export trade.

Therefore, the establishment of four new bonded zones and logistics parks (here refers to the investment development and new planning in the new stage, not the new establishment, which existed before) is obviously aimed at expanding Shanghai, a port that can directly contribute to tax revenue, earning more money and protecting the declining port industry and import and export business in Shanghai.

Influence on ordinary people

This is simpler, that is, ordinary people can buy some cheap goods made in China and designed abroad, and shopping is the most intuitive influence. For example, imported cars and electronic products that everyone is concerned about, as well as some original imported publications. The supporting facilities of the bonded area may also involve international schools and other educational products. And cheaper and more efficient international logistics services.

Fourth, foreign banks, Sino-foreign joint venture banks and foreign credit companies jointly run by private capital and foreign capital are allowed to be established, and the authority of some transactions and financing series (such as financial leasing and futures trading) is liberalized.

Qualified foreign-funded financial institutions are allowed to set up foreign banks, and private capital and foreign-funded financial institutions are allowed to set up Sino-foreign joint venture banks. It is reported that foreign banks can carry out pilot RMB business in the bonded area, but they do not enjoy national treatment, and can engage in various retail and wholesale banking businesses, including accepting deposits, corporate financing, trade financing, financial activities, precious metal trading and securities trading. However, foreign-funded payment institutions are allowed to apply to the People's Bank of China and obtain a payment business license with reference to the Measures for the Administration of Payment by Non-financial Institutions; Foreign-invested credit investigation companies are allowed to be established.

Secondly, foreign enterprises are gradually allowed to participate in commodity futures trading, and it is suggested that financial leasing companies be allowed to operate commercial factoring business related to their main business.

Finally, the pilot of financial innovation in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is mainly aimed at service trade and investment. In addition to the above measures, in the pilot, the pilot policy of export tax rebate for financial leasing goods will be implemented for all kinds of financial leasing companies and project subsidiaries registered in the region. It is suggested that the single-machine and single-ship subsidiaries established by financial leasing companies in the pilot areas should not have minimum registered capital restrictions, and it is suggested that financial leasing companies be allowed to concurrently engage in commercial factoring business related to their main business.

This influence mainly lies in:

1, the implementation of an open financial policy, financial market liberalization into the international mainstream, causing direct competition between Chinese and foreign capital, looking forward to cultivating the innovation and competitiveness of enterprises in this way.

2. It is a prerequisite for Shanghai to become a offshore money port to allow a large inflow and outflow of domestic and foreign capital, and further relax the examination and approval control of financial business and foreign exchange control. However, this may also cause the negative effects of open finance. Therefore, our research group is very cautious about the specific implementation of this project.

3. Foreign banks obtained the qualification of RMB business at one time, which directly promoted the RMB currency business. Whether it is normal trading or derivative packaging, cross-border lending has become relatively feasible. So this is a great convenience for offshore business, but the financial supervision department is still very cautious about it, but the pilot policy is brewing.

4. Intentionally relax the capital requirements and business scope of the financial leasing company, and allow the single-machine and single-ship subsidiaries established by the financial leasing company in the pilot areas to engage in commercial factoring business related to the main business, without being restricted by the minimum registered capital. And give strong support in taxation. The financial leasing industry is in great demand in Shanghai, and there are many cross-border industrial investment enterprises in Shanghai. All kinds of financial leasing enterprises have strong policy demands, and the introduction of preferential policies will promote the development of this industry.

5. Gradually allow overseas enterprises to participate in commodity futures trading. In Shanghai Free Trade Zone, overseas futures exchanges will be allowed to designate or set up commodity futures delivery warehouses. The biggest direct effect is to reduce transaction costs, and setting up a transaction warehouse in the free trade zone is also conducive to improving the functionality of Shanghai Financial Center.

Influence on ordinary people

First of all, for investors, the free trade zone provides more comprehensive financial services, which is actually much more convenient for overseas stocks and futures. Secondly, with the participation of foreign banks, there will be some competition with private capital and state-owned assets in counter services, and natural persons will have more choices, and their services will be improved because of competition. At the same time, in some service products, such as housing provident fund, more competitors will inevitably produce more diversified trading schemes. However, considering the main business and customer base of foreign capital, the impact on the people is actually limited to these, or relatively limited.

Fifth, some Chinese banks are allowed to engage in offshore business;

To establish a free trade zone in Shanghai, it is also necessary to build an offshore financial market. The pilot zone also tries to explore the risk management and system improvement of offshore business of domestic commercial banks, and allows qualified Chinese banks in the zone to engage in offshore business.

In the previous research, offshore business includes studying the operational norms of offshore financial business pilots of Chinese banks. Including anti-money laundering, avoidance of double taxation, information exchange and other detailed rules.

The main impact lies in:

1, since 2006, China's offshore capital business has grown exponentially, and the emergence of a free trade zone with roots and seedlings has undoubtedly improved its channels.

2. For this group of customers who have set up factories in the mainland, their capital is overseas and occupy the mainstream of domestic investment, the strong demand for liquidity is bound to be a new golden point in the financial field. This has been clearly reflected in various business indicators of Shenzhen-Hong Kong integration.

3. At present, a large number of enterprises in China need to "go global". Since 12, under the condition of weak domestic economy in Europe, countless China enterprises have gone to the European market for bargain hunting through investment bundling, especially small and medium-sized emerging industries, and even saved commercial real estate in London. Therefore, it is increasingly urgent for domestic banks to provide timely and convenient overseas comprehensive financial services, including overseas financing, group financial management, trade settlement, reducing financial costs, avoiding investment risks, investment transfer, and participating in domestic and foreign bidding. This has greatly reduced the cost of these enterprises and is also a new gold digger in the domestic financial industry.

As for reducing the expansion of foreign exchange and a large amount of funds in stock, as I said, "revitalizing" is one of the leading ideas of this free trade zone, so this policy is nothing more than the embodiment of this macro purpose.

Influence on ordinary people

In fact, the direct impact is limited, mainly because it can provide investment options for newly developed RMB products. For example, concept stocks already exist. The downside is that the printing press is going to open again.

Sixth, the construction of free trade zones and real estate development.

1, the establishment of the free trade zone naturally involves the construction of the park, which involves real estate. Moreover, the more market-oriented policy of the free trade zone is obviously a shot in the arm for real estate developers who are gearing up.

2. With the innovation and evolution of FTZ financial system, the integration mechanisms of private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises, private finance and overseas capital will emerge continuously, and "supply chain finance" which can produce huge agglomeration effect may also form a "relationship finance" service model similar to German banking.

This is undoubtedly a boon for the capital-intensive real estate industry. It can bring wider channels, faster speed, more choices and higher standards for the financing of real estate enterprises, thus effectively promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry.

As a country with real estate as its pillar industry, a successful free trade zone will undoubtedly become an important economic growth pole in Shanghai, East China and even the whole country.

Influence on ordinary people

For Shanghai, where the significance of mainstream real estate is unclear, but high-end real estate and commercial real estate have obvious ups and downs, the free trade zone will undoubtedly make the real estate market stable and upward, and it is an obvious investment opportunity for ordinary people. Secondly, the construction of the free trade zone will promote the supporting construction and commercial development in several regions, so in terms of living conditions and convenience, relevant aspects will be significantly improved. For those who have not bought a house, this is also a good regional choice. Finally, Modu real estate (residence) has always been in an expensive but not luxurious situation. This time, global real estate developers will participate in the development of supporting houses in the free trade zone, which is still obvious for the upgrading of residential grades. On the negative side, I'm afraid house prices will go up again.

Summary:

If it goes well, there will probably be several forward-looking things at the macro level:

1, Shanghai FTZ is a top-level design, and FTZ is a common practice in all countries. However, whether the open economy can be controlled is a test.

2. The Shanghai Free Trade Zone is expected to become a supply chain hub in the Pan-Asian region, one of the world's leading commodity trading centers, and a new growth point for China's economy.

This is an attempt of a new supervision system, a new economic policy and an open strategy.

4. The development of similar bonded areas may replace part of "new city development" as another form of policy-oriented investment bonus.

5. The first battle of RMB global strategy started.