Some time ago, a friend suddenly contacted me and said that he introduced a method to earn some pocket money. Money was a little tight, so I chatted. Later, I made it clear that I bought a lottery ticket, but it was a high-frequency lottery ticket, which opened every 5- 10 minutes. It is a private platform, so the rate of return is higher, and there is a so-called plan to take you to gamble. My friend said that I can earn hundreds of dollars a day on average. At first, I was very disdainful of this kind of income, but I couldn't help persuading him in turn. Plus, I was a little curious at that time, so I registered and recharged 100 yuan, and successfully joined the group to have a glimpse.

After a day of secret observation, I finally understand that there are many lottery tickets to bet on this lottery platform, but the planner only pays attention to one way of playing, that is, guessing the size in 10 numbers, where 0-4 is small and 5-9 is big. The odds are 1: 1.985, which means that if you buy 2 yuan, you will get 3.97 yuan if you win. The planning specialist's strategy is to double the bet, that is, the first place 1 yuan, stop if you win, and triple the bet if you lose. Then when you go to 3 yuan for the second time, the winning profit is 3 1.985, and the cost of 4 yuan minus two bets is 1.955 yuan. If you don't win, you will continue to bet three times the cost of the last bet, that is, you will go to 9 yuan. Then the planner will ask you to double the pitch after three consecutive sessions. After all, the probability of opening the same size at the back should be lower and lower. This calculation is really a sure bet, and it won't take long for you to reach the peak of your life.

So I looked for a weekend and started winning the lottery at 9: 00 in the morning. It didn't take long for 100 yuan to become 1600 yuan, and when I earned enough 2000 yuan, I was ready to stop. As a result, the last one opened 1 1 at night, and the whole day's efforts were all in vain! Suddenly I feel a little pitted. I resisted the impulse to continue to spend money to turn over the books, calmed down and analyzed it, and found that I had made a big mistake. Let me analyze it.

First of all, we must explain this law of large numbers:

The above is Wikipedia's explanation. A popular example is coin toss. When throwing a coin, the probability of getting a face is 50%, and when throwing 10000 times, the probability of getting a face is also close to 50%. The more repetitions, the closer to the probability. This is relatively stable.

The above betting lottery can be understood as a coin toss, but one is to guess the pros and cons, and the other is to guess the size. Each event is independent of each other. The result of this time will not affect the next time, so for a long time, the probability of opening the size every time should be equal, which is 50%. If you keep turning it up at this time, the probability of turning it down next time should be improved.

Well, if you think so, you will make the same mistake as me. This mistake has a proper name: gambler fallacy.

The double betting system after failure is an example of gambler's fallacy.

Above, we explained the law of large numbers, explaining that the probability of opening the size each time is 50%, but the condition for the law of large numbers to hold is that the number of repetitions is infinite, and the probability of opening the size within 10000 or even 10000 will be close to 50%, and 10000 cannot be reflected within 20 times. Many people mistakenly believe that the law of large numbers applies to both large and small samples.

There are other examples in life, that is, having children, and the probability of having boys and girls is also 50%. A family gave birth to three girls. At this time, he was very sure that the next child was mostly a boy, which was actually wrong.

Maybe you will say that as long as I have enough money, I can still win money. Then let's figure out how terrible this double throw is.

According to this strategy, if you miss 1 1 continuously and arrive at 12, you will have to pay 177 147 yuan, with a cumulative investment of 265,720 yuan. If you miss it, you will lose all. Later, I specially checked the historical lottery records and found that 13 or even 18 big ones appeared in a week, so I was unlucky. If I worked hard for a few days, I might lose all, and the risk was still relatively large. Moreover, general platforms have betting ceilings, such as 1 10,000 caps.

The above analysis is based on the premise of fairness and justice of the platform. The platform is not good, so we can only harvest. So, cherish life and stay away from gambling!