Fiscal policy is overweight.
At present, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China is good, but the epidemic situation abroad is accelerating, and the world economy is facing the risk of recession. China's economic development urgently needs the sustained efforts of macro-policies. Wang Han, chief economist of Industrial Securities, said that after public emergencies, the reconstruction funds are usually about 0.5 to 4 times of the economic losses of 65,438+,so there is still room for policy support.
"The development of fiscal policy will be an important point of view in the next step," said Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst of Minsheng Securities.
Special treasury bonds refer to treasury bonds that serve specific policies and support specific projects, and are not included in the fiscal deficit. China has only issued it twice before, and this time it was restarted after 13 years. 65438-0998 The Ministry of Finance issued 270 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to supplement capital to the four major banks of workers, peasants and China Construction. In 2007, the Ministry of Finance issued about 1.55 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds to purchase foreign exchange as the capital of China Investment Corporation. In 20 17, some government bonds issued in 2007 were continuously issued.
Zhang Jiqiang, deputy director of Huatai Securities Research Institute and chief analyst of fixed income, said that issuing special-purpose government bonds is more in line with the current policy objectives to deal with the impact of the epidemic, more conducive to camera decision-making, and can avoid excessive rise in local government debt. It is necessary to restart the issuance of special government bonds in a timely and appropriate manner.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that special treasury bonds are mainly aimed at institutional investors, and only a few of them are publicly issued, so individual investors can subscribe, so the impact on the fund is limited.
In terms of special debt, a person close to supervision revealed to reporters that in 2020, special debt investment should not be used for soil storage, shed reform and real estate. The market expects that the pulling effect of special bonds on infrastructure investment will be enhanced.
The flexibility of currency regulation has increased.
It is worth mentioning that China's monetary policy reflects the balance between output and direction. Shi Cheng, chief economist of ICBC International, said that on the one hand, the regulatory authorities have always maintained a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, which has provided an effective guarantee for stabilizing the operation of the real economy. On the other hand, China's monetary policy regulation has shown some strength in the case of loose overseas monetary environment and high domestic inflationary pressure.
For the next monetary policy, industry experts believe that the regulatory authorities have repeatedly stressed that a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate, with the focus on guiding the downward interest rate in the loan market and maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, said that "guiding the loan market interest rate downward" means that there is still room for downward LPR in the future, and "unblocking the transmission mechanism" also means that the downward financing cost can not be solved only by reducing MLF, and commercial banks are also required to reduce the excessive demand for short-term profit growth and give profits to the real economy.
Judging from the benchmark deposit interest rate, the chief economist of Founder Securities thinks that mid-April is a suitable window for downward adjustment. Since the deposit cost is an important part of the bank's cost, if the deposit interest rate is lowered by 25 basis points, the LPR quotation will be directly lowered by 20 to 25 basis points, so as to help the bank alleviate the cost pressure and transmit the effect of reducing the financing cost to the entity enterprises.
According to Ming Ming, deputy director of CITIC Securities Research Institute, "more moderate" indicates that the flexibility of currency regulation will be further enhanced. In the process of gradually implementing the resumption of work and production, monetary regulation is not in a hurry, but in coordination with financial efforts to stimulate actual demand. "More flexibility" may be reflected in the tools and direction of monetary policy, such as continuing to promote new monetary policy tools such as special refinancing, and continuing to use structural monetary policy tools such as "three grades and two excellent" deposit reserve ratio and refinancing rediscount to strengthen credit support for small and micro enterprises.
Economic growth will gradually recover.
Although the epidemic affected the economic operation in the first quarter, many experts said that the long-term macroeconomic development trend of China will not change, and the economic growth rate will gradually pick up with the strong implementation of a package of macroeconomic policies and measures.
Shi Cheng believes that in the future, China's financial system will be further transformed to adapt to the "more balanced and full" steady growth of China's economy, and interest rate marketization and financing system reform will provide effective support for various micro-subjects.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, stressed that the current economic fluctuations are mainly due to the exogenous impact of major epidemics, rather than the mismatch of resources within the economic system or major deviations in economic policies. Therefore, the economic operation will soon return to the right track after the epidemic, and it will not change the long-term development trend of China's macro-economy.
Jiang Chao said that if the global epidemic prevention and control is effective, China's economic operation will gradually recover, its finance will be more active, and its currency will be more flexible and moderate. After the second quarter of this year, China's economic growth rate is expected to return to around 6% or even above.