1. Finance and foreign trade:

Influence one

China's exports are affected by the decrease in US consumption.

In terms of export, it can be predicted that the external macro-economic environment of China will be more severe due to the financial turmoil sweeping the Wall Street. According to the import and export data of the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of China's foreign trade export slowed down obviously in the first eight months of this year. As the United States is the largest export market for China's goods, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports, which surged once in June and July, will be tested again. Zhang Bin said that the decline in external demand means that foreign consumers' demand for high value-added products and low value-added products will decrease at the same time. In this environment, exporters may not have the motivation to innovate technology, but are forced to maintain market share by lowering product prices, which may lead to further deterioration of the terms of trade of China's export enterprises.

Impact 2

Increase the cost of domestic imports

On the import side, the impact of the financial turmoil is closely related to the exchange rate of the US dollar. At present, almost all commodities in the international market are priced in dollars, and the strength of the dollar determines the price trend of commodities. From the observable data, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other commodities have shown a downward trend due to the recent reversal of the US dollar, which is good news for China, which needs a large number of resource products. However, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the unexpected acquisition of Merrill Lynch, the "Fannie and Freddie" announced by the US government a week ago, and the repeated turmoil in the US financial market have seriously affected the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and the confidence of holders.

Although the US economy is strong in the medium and long term and the exchange rate of the US dollar is high, the policy of weakening the US dollar in the short term seems to have been recognized by the market. In this way, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other resource products will be pushed up again, and the cost of importing commodities denominated in US dollars in China will also increase greatly.

Influence three

Seriously hit the confidence of the domestic financial market.

The financial crisis has brought considerable losses and impacts to financial institutions. The five major investment banks on Wall Street have strong investment and research teams, with assets exceeding hundreds of billions of dollars and extremely rich information resources. Such large investment banks have also closed down, which shows the seriousness of this crisis. "Different financial institutions have suffered different degrees of losses, the only difference is the amount of losses, such as Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the US government, and Bear Stearns, which was acquired by JPMorgan Chase in March. However, it is better to consider the impact on financial market confidence than to estimate the direct losses of investors.

Influence 4

Bring direct losses to domestic financial institutions

The direct impact of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on domestic financial institutions includes two aspects: on the one hand, China's financial institutions and investors hold more subordinated bonds, resulting in actual losses; On the other hand, the financial crisis leads to the recession in the United States, which will be transmitted to China.

The financial turmoil on Wall Street will also slow down China's economic growth to a great extent. After the Olympic Games, China's economic growth slowed down, and the financial turmoil in the United States will only make this problem worse. The financial turmoil caused the US stock index to plummet, while the China administration bought a lot of Wall Street stocks, and banks and fund companies in China also bought a lot of American funds. In addition, the loan difficulties caused by the financial crisis will directly affect China's trade exports.

In fact, the current macroeconomic downturn in China is partly due to domestic economic factors and partly due to American and external factors. When we talk about imported inflation, in fact, the economic recession is also imported in a sense, because the United States is the largest economy in the world, and its demand for goods and investment in other countries will be very large. Therefore, once there is a problem in the American economy, it may lead to economic decline or recession in the world or in many major countries.

2. Enterprises:

The financial crisis has the greatest impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, but not on large enterprises.

First of all, the financial crisis makes financing for small and medium-sized enterprises more difficult and basically impossible;

Thirdly, it is the financial crisis that leads to a decrease in demand and an increase in the price of raw materials, but the price of products remains unchanged, which makes the products of small enterprises lose their competitiveness and the chances of survival will become smaller.

For labor-intensive enterprises, it is almost a disaster. As foreign markets shrink and production costs rise, enterprises will close down, workers' wages will fall and they will lose their jobs.

It has little impact on high-tech intensive enterprises.

3. Economic trends:

This crisis will bring a lot of confusion to China. In the past few decades, China's economic development has experienced some twists and turns, but on the whole it is very smooth. Because China's economy obviously lags behind that of the West, it is much easier, cheaper and more efficient to imitate others than to start your own business. Now that the "locomotive" is broken, how to get to the car behind? Especially how to play the game in the financial market? These are the thorny issues that China will face now and in the future.

4. Economic status:

In the short term, the financial crisis has a certain impact on China's economy, and many of them are real losses. The sharp depreciation of the US dollar will cause serious losses to China's foreign exchange reserves, and China's foreign trade exports will also be greatly affected. However, from a long-term and global perspective, if the crisis is finally resolved without triggering a new world war, relatively speaking, China should benefit more from this crisis, that is to say, China's economic strength and position will be significantly strengthened in the face of the world economy.

5. People's lives:

Prices will fall, because if the economy is depressed, the income level will drop, the number of unemployed people will increase, people's spending power will drop, and product prices will also drop.

1. The financial crisis has spread all over the world. For China, the country's foreign exchange reserves are partially lost, export is difficult, economic growth slows down, unemployment increases, people's income drops, consumption decreases, and the market is depressed. If it is serious, it will cause political instability. Compared with European countries, the financial crisis has little impact on China, because China's economy has been separated from the international economy, and China's RMB has been strictly managed under the capital account, so the impact of international hot money is not great.

2. The specific impact on China:

(1) The decrease in US consumption affects China's exports: In terms of exports, it can be predicted that the external macroeconomic environment of China will be more severe due to the financial turmoil sweeping Wall Street. According to the import and export data of the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of China's foreign trade export slowed down obviously in the first eight months of this year. As the United States is the largest export market for China's goods, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports, which surged once in June and July, will be tested again. Zhang Bin said that the decline in external demand means that foreign consumers' demand for high value-added products and low value-added products will decrease at the same time. In this environment, exporters may not have the motivation to innovate technology, but are forced to maintain market share by lowering product prices, which may lead to further deterioration of the terms of trade of China's export enterprises. Import: Under the impact of the financial crisis, the American economy may still decline in the second half of the year, which will lead to the continued decline of its national consumption power and desire, while investment expenditure will increase. "This is not good news for China's foreign trade exports." If the consumer demand of American citizens decreases and the manufacturing industry gradually recovers due to the increase in investment, the goods imported from China will inevitably decrease.

(2) Increase the cost of domestic imports: In terms of imports, the impact of the financial turmoil is closely related to the exchange rate of the US dollar. At present, almost all commodities in the international market are priced in dollars, and the strength of the dollar determines the price trend of commodities. From the observable data, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other commodities have shown a downward trend due to the recent reversal of the US dollar, which is good news for China, which needs a large number of resource products. However, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the unexpected acquisition of Merrill Lynch, the "Fannie and Freddie" announced by the US government a week ago, and the repeated turmoil in the US financial market have seriously affected the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and the confidence of holders.

(3) Strike the confidence of the domestic financial market.

(4) Direct losses to domestic financial institutions: The direct impact of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on domestic financial institutions includes two aspects: on the one hand, financial institutions and investors hold more subordinated bonds, resulting in actual losses; On the other hand, if there is a recession in the United States, it will be transmitted to China. According to the bankruptcy documents, Bank of China new york Branch also lent Lehman $50 million.

3. Compared with European countries (such as Detroit Auto City, USA), the financial crisis has little impact on China, because China's economy is separated from the international economy to a certain extent, China's RMB is strictly managed under capital account, and the impact of international hot money is not great. At present, more than 70 banks in the United States are on the verge of bankruptcy. China's financial system is operating well and its economy is growing at a certain speed. At the same time, the state is also taking measures such as expanding finance, reducing the deposit reserve ratio and stimulating domestic demand of 4 trillion yuan. Now, the RMB exchange rate has been lowered. If all macroeconomic measures are effectively implemented, China needs about 1 year.

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